Sell Bitcoin in May and Walk Away?

'Sell in May and walk away' - does it apply to #Bitcoin? Historically, selling in May results in missing out on gains. However, a simple strategy that buys BTCUSD in Oct and sells in May is profitable 60% of the time, with a net profit of 4.15%.

The strategy's effectiveness depends on the current market cycle. Selling in May misses gains in a recovering market, but helps avoid losses in a bear market. So, is Bitcoin in a bear market now? Evidence suggests not.

Adjusting the strategy to sell in May only if in a downtrend results in lower net profit, but allows for capturing larger trends. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-period Simple Moving Average, with a significant low & growing on-chain fundamentals.

Based on the strategy, selling in May 2023 may lead to missing out on summer gains. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in an uptrend since the beginning of the year. Resistance at $30K, support at $26K. Long break of $30K targeting 35-$37K.


Daily Baseline support at $24K; as long as price is above, market is bullish. A Head & Shoulders pattern is forming, projecting a downside target of 23,171. A similar scenario in March rallied to new yearly highs.


For Bitcoin investors: Hold BTC, avoid Ethereum (Bitcoin outperforming). To hedge, short all or part of BTC in the current range. If Bitcoin breaks $30K, unhedge to catch the breakout. Hold short to 23K, then re-evaluate.

In summary, while the "Sell in May" strategy can be profitable, its effectiveness depends on the market cycle. Currently, it may not be the best approach for Bitcoin. Instead, consider holding and hedging to maximize potential gains.