user100000
Long

Four phases of market activity

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1175 16 10
See chart.

The accumulation phase is nearly over. I doubt you will ever see sub 200 ever again. It is important for investors and traders to know which phase the market is at to position yourself correctly.
We are taking a pause. You can divide history in fractions and history repeats. The period okt - dec 14 equals jan-april 15. First target is $150 and even sub 100 is in the charts. The longer the pause the harder the knock down. The direction is still very bearish. More downside to come. It is important to take history in account. Take advantage of it.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper technologics
2 years ago
A pause before what? Are you saying we'll be going down hard again before we enter the bull phase?
Reply
technologics PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
Yes, a pause before a giant breakdown. Intrinsic value of cryptocurrency Bitcoin is only $38, cfr credit card payments. There are not more merchants that accept Bitcoin, but less. They are disappointed. The technology bitcoin is a revolutionary invention. Bitcoin is overvalued. Downtrend is still intact.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper technologics
2 years ago
I didn't understand the intrinsic value calculation you used. Why would cc payments be a comparable value for BTC, since there are so many more factors that go into its price, such as mining costs, dollar fx values compared to other fiat currencies, enormous VC funding, ETF launches and its introduction to institutional investors as a safe haven comparable to gold?
+1 Reply
Macainian rivet.popper
2 years ago
Do yourself a favor rivet and don't follow user100000's charts. His charts are always bullish despite constantly going down. I'm not saying it won't go up again, just that user100000 WILL say that no matter what. If you want to follow someone that knows what he's talking about, follow 4xForecaster. His forecasts are usually medium to long term, but I guarantee you will not only be more successful just by following his advice, but you will learn the techniques he uses to come up with his charts.

The charts that 4xForecaster is using right now are:
A Quick Technical Lesson | $BTC #forex #elliottwave #bitcoin

Driling Thru 1445 Opens Floor To 1089.93 Target | #bitcoin $BTC

Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 405/575; So Do Market-Geos.


Please note that these charts at first glance may seem contradictory, but in fact, they are not. To jump in and sum up what he is saying, the price is going up in the short term to the 260 mark and possibly a little higher, but will make a turn back to the downside to 175ish at which point 4xForecaster doesn't have anything to say about that point yet, but in the long term, it is heading down to mid 90s and then possibly to upper 60s.

That is basically a summary of what 4xForecaster is saying right now. He has made no predictions past that. To give a time perspective (though note that this is my speculation based on past experience of looking at 4xForecaster's charts), it will probably hit 260 within 2 weeks, 175 within 2 months, and mid 90s within 3 or 4 months.
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Macainian Macainian
2 years ago
Oh and note that 2 of his charts are based in CNY not USD, but just multiply by roughly .16 and you will get USD.
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oaksacorn Macainian
2 years ago
Log Scale please........
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oldstout
2 years ago
lol, sorry but this is worthless pseudo analysis. this is just todamoon!
+2 Reply
CrazyC
2 years ago
for a min I actually thought this was a real chart. accumulation he said lmfao.
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user100000 CrazyC
2 years ago
this is old school TA. that's how long term charts are analyzed. there is always accumulation phase, then markup, distribution and markdown. cycle repeats
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oscar_ user100000
2 years ago
its called dow theory
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TheShakeOut
2 years ago
There has been two possible selling climaxes on this instrument. However, the price has failed to respond to them. It is still to soon to be talking about accumulation when the price is still trending down and showing confirmed signs of weakness.
Bitcoin is still in a downtrend
Reply
HerSerenity
2 years ago
Simply because you cannot call your TV account complete without a BTC chart promising 5 digits in one week to 6 months max (aka soon(tm)).
-1 Reply
Dude.. do you ever take pause to evaluate why you're consistently wrong?

Why bother posting these daily ridiculous permabull charts when you're just making a laughing stock of yourself and deluding other shitcoiners with your bullshit rationales?

http://imgur.com/a/1GK1o

Oh wait, it's probably because you're a Bitcoin bagHODLer. lol.

Sorry for ur loss.
+1 Reply
oaksacorn
2 years ago
I am a bit shocked by the the comments to 100ks charts. This chart is essentially a regurgitation of what has already happened in previous sub cycles. Yet, everyone is basically saying that he is smoking crack even though the fundamental math behind these cycles is there. If you don't believe in bitcoin, then that is a different story. Press it here. Press it at 152 and maybe buy it back at 63. If you do believe in bitcoin but are wary of something better coming down the pipe, there is still room for the above. If you are just a technical trader and don't care either way, then I would be very cautious about pressing these levels with monthly stochastic (yes that piece of dog doo) flat lining at 16 or below for 5.5 months now unless bitcoin is crap.... especially given past structural cycles. So yes the bulls have had their since the beginning. The bears have had their say (even the bitcoin believers) since the beginning. Both have done well given the right entry points. As a bitcoin enthusiast and investor and overall mostly bear trader (in other products), nothing on the charts tells me to sell it aggressively here for size. As Technologics says, this is what history is telling me. Not with the Saudi National guard entering Yemen. Not with Bunds being the short of a lifetime. Not with China's first state owned default and most importantly NOT WITH SAUDIS TALKING TO CHINA ABOUT BENCHMARKING OIL TO YUAN INSTEAD OF DOLLAR. The amount of Longs the Bull whales have amassed in the above accumulation phase won't be even close to enough and we will most likely see (unless bitcoin is just crap) yet another phase change to the upside.
+2 Reply
HerSerenity
2 years ago
Actual "long-term" distribution eventually began in July 2014 when there was enough evidence that there won't be another legendary bubble run for a long while to come, as pointed out by me back then giving the current price as first target.
Your wishes are the fathers of your thoughts; this analysis is loosely based on resemblance of chart patterns and the assumption that the massive overall uptrend is still intact (which it is not ever since $600 broke down over a year ago).

I bet you would have done great in this market if only you had joined it two or three years earlier. However, when the music stopped, the lights are off and you are all alone in a dark room with empty bottles, and you still don't realise the party is over for today, then I don't think your stubbornness can be helped.

snapshot


(Only referring to this specific chart and the general bias in your analysis. Still appreciate your posts and the occasionally fresh approach you have.)
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