BTC, caught in a trend. What will help?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Next few days should prove to be decisive for BTC if the attempt to break $10400 consolidated Fibonacci levels fails, with the 200(MA) being tightly held and leading out of Ichimoku Cloud which should attract shorts, sliding along Senkou Span B may be possible but unlikely as the thickness will provide resistance while aggressive trading could expose stop loss points and lead back into downward trend channel.
Look for 0.618 Fibonacci to start to see price action at this level. Below has support of Fibonacci and Trend line aligning to bounce off. Once bottom confirmed (...Still believe traders are expecting unobtainable lows) and volume established, I expect eventual rise into overall (green) trend channel ($12000)

RSI - Flatting at 45, dip of RSI , completion of RSI Divergence could expose trend reversal.
Ichimoku Cloud - Lead up to April appears break may be possible but overall trending downwards.
Alt Coins - Dominance of Alt's are starting to contract, especially the larger ones, all while BTC dominance rises, currently 42%, Reversal in those such ETH, BTC , LTC but expecting Korean coins first ADA XPR , EOS, NEO could indicate early volume rise.
BTC Circulating supply - Although new 12.5 BTC is "minted" every 10 mins, availability may become reduced as Mt Gox seem to have stopped dumping coins until November, along with those who have been "coin burnt" by buying high, have little option to wait for the eventual rise (...and some may be waiting a while) HODLers are even happening at this price level.
Would love to know what thoughts are on this scenario and possible variables.

p.s I'm overall bullish on Bitcoin .

Comment: We rebounded off the alignment of 0.5 Fibonacci support and 200(MA) twice, pulling back to lower support level 0.746 seems only matter time, prob within the next day or so with 200(MA) flat and leading out of Ichimoku Cloud resulting in re-entering downwards Channel. (Cboe futures March 14th current high/low $9530-$8290, CME end month) sure there be short term manipulation.

Longer term will be interesting to see what price action brings fiat, 100(MA) losing ground, squeezing the price lower. Overall there is a lot $$$ sitting on the sideline with probable use within the Crypto market but what price will entice them?
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