Where Are We Present Day When Comparing to 4th Quarter, 2015?
More charts will be posted periodically of different time frames to show comparisons of PRESENT DAY with 4th Quarter, 2015.
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11-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
12-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
12-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
Comment:
I think a LOT of people are going to get burned trying to short this on the way up. It will be DANGEROUS to short from here until June in my opinion.
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14-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
16-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
16-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
Comment:
@Popovich (in comments below) made very relevant statements:
POPOVICH:
It occurred to me however that this way of thinking that the 5D could bounce off roughly the 50 level for further upside move when higher TFs are bullish, could numb our alertness as to the big opposite move around the corner. This may prove to be a presumptuous thinking that could get us in trouble sometimes (not sarcastic! I am being honest thinking out loud). At a moment of clarity, one would see that letting a dump eat into the profit/capital when we falsely believe it is bullish, is just as much sin as missing out on a pump when it is still very bullish.
I know about the trailing stop but sometimes, in the heat of the battle no less, going from you expecting it to pump to you realising it has in fact transpired into as a medium-term dump episode for candles to come, could be some several thousands dollars apart. Our plans may be clear but when we actually arrive on the battlefield, things are often thornier than they seemed. As to knowing what is and what is not about this perpetual sine curve move along all TFs, and what to and what not to do at any given point, I have no clear answer.
Again, just sharing my thoughts, please don't be anguished seeing my convoluted doubts and scruples. You don't necessarily have to answer. I thought I'd just add to the discussion.
MY RESPONSE:
No worries, Mate! I know you're not being "sarcastic." Your input promotes growth towards professionalism. Also, I'm sure many others reading your comments are happy you make the statements you make.
In my opinion, this is not the time to implement a trailing stop. This is the time to simply utilize a stop loss. I personally use a trailing stop after an "Up-Thrust" has begun ($300 jump or more) but not necessarily on all "Up-Thrusts." Depends on the situation. Sometimes, I may simply edit my stop loss to a higher price point.
Depending on the level of risk one can personally handle psychologically, one can reduce their risk by the WAY they trade. For example, if one is experiencing higher stress level because of doubt (for whatever reason), they can simply buy (accumulate) with proper stop loss in place WITHOUT ANY LEVERAGE (no margin trade). Then once one determines their TA is correct (validated) -OR- they see the probability increase within the indicators of the potential for an "Up-Thrust," they can then choose to do a margin long with low leverage (5x or less; depending on how comfortable one feels with what they are seeing within the indicators).
BOTTOM LINE: We MANAGE our emotions with how we MANAGE our trade(s) according to the circumstance presented to us and our level of confidence with what we are seeing within the indicators.
This was ONLY a brief elaboration with example to explain how one can control their emotions by controlling the "WAY" they trade according to the circumstances one encounters every minute of every hour of every day of every week of every month we trade. I FIRMLY believe one MUST FIRST have a good foundation and understanding of proper indicators (like the ones we are using) in order to have a way of MEASURING probabilities in order to MANAGE one's TRADES.
There are some pretty good traders out there who MANAGE their emotions with the WAY they implement their trades based on what little knowledge they may or may not have when it comes to "ANALYSIS." Yet, as I've said before, "One can become an analyst without being a trader. However, one should never be a trader without also being an analyst. Otherwise, your aspiration to be a successful trader will be short-lived and very unlikely to be considered "successful." 10 to 20 percent of aspiring traders actually make a profit. Approximately 33% of those who make a profit can do so on a consistent basis. Don’t become a statistic!"
Stay Awesome!
David
POPOVICH:
It occurred to me however that this way of thinking that the 5D could bounce off roughly the 50 level for further upside move when higher TFs are bullish, could numb our alertness as to the big opposite move around the corner. This may prove to be a presumptuous thinking that could get us in trouble sometimes (not sarcastic! I am being honest thinking out loud). At a moment of clarity, one would see that letting a dump eat into the profit/capital when we falsely believe it is bullish, is just as much sin as missing out on a pump when it is still very bullish.
I know about the trailing stop but sometimes, in the heat of the battle no less, going from you expecting it to pump to you realising it has in fact transpired into as a medium-term dump episode for candles to come, could be some several thousands dollars apart. Our plans may be clear but when we actually arrive on the battlefield, things are often thornier than they seemed. As to knowing what is and what is not about this perpetual sine curve move along all TFs, and what to and what not to do at any given point, I have no clear answer.
Again, just sharing my thoughts, please don't be anguished seeing my convoluted doubts and scruples. You don't necessarily have to answer. I thought I'd just add to the discussion.
MY RESPONSE:
No worries, Mate! I know you're not being "sarcastic." Your input promotes growth towards professionalism. Also, I'm sure many others reading your comments are happy you make the statements you make.
In my opinion, this is not the time to implement a trailing stop. This is the time to simply utilize a stop loss. I personally use a trailing stop after an "Up-Thrust" has begun ($300 jump or more) but not necessarily on all "Up-Thrusts." Depends on the situation. Sometimes, I may simply edit my stop loss to a higher price point.
Depending on the level of risk one can personally handle psychologically, one can reduce their risk by the WAY they trade. For example, if one is experiencing higher stress level because of doubt (for whatever reason), they can simply buy (accumulate) with proper stop loss in place WITHOUT ANY LEVERAGE (no margin trade). Then once one determines their TA is correct (validated) -OR- they see the probability increase within the indicators of the potential for an "Up-Thrust," they can then choose to do a margin long with low leverage (5x or less; depending on how comfortable one feels with what they are seeing within the indicators).
BOTTOM LINE: We MANAGE our emotions with how we MANAGE our trade(s) according to the circumstance presented to us and our level of confidence with what we are seeing within the indicators.
This was ONLY a brief elaboration with example to explain how one can control their emotions by controlling the "WAY" they trade according to the circumstances one encounters every minute of every hour of every day of every week of every month we trade. I FIRMLY believe one MUST FIRST have a good foundation and understanding of proper indicators (like the ones we are using) in order to have a way of MEASURING probabilities in order to MANAGE one's TRADES.
There are some pretty good traders out there who MANAGE their emotions with the WAY they implement their trades based on what little knowledge they may or may not have when it comes to "ANALYSIS." Yet, as I've said before, "One can become an analyst without being a trader. However, one should never be a trader without also being an analyst. Otherwise, your aspiration to be a successful trader will be short-lived and very unlikely to be considered "successful." 10 to 20 percent of aspiring traders actually make a profit. Approximately 33% of those who make a profit can do so on a consistent basis. Don’t become a statistic!"
Stay Awesome!
David
Comment:
The same would go visa-versa for a short:
Depending on the level of risk on can personally handle psychologically, on can reduce their risk by the WAY they trade. For example, if one is experiencing higher stress level because of doubt (for whatever reason) as to whether the price WILL GO DOWN (as they calculate with the indicators), they can MANAGE their emotions by MANAGING the amount of LEVERAGE in their margin short position. If you don't feel quite confident in a particular downward move coming up but leaning 60 percent of it going down and 40 percent of it going flat or up; you can simply do 1x leverage. If your confidence level is much higher based on what you are seeing within the indicators, you can increase your leverage accordingly. This way, you are taking EMOTIONS even more out of your TRADE by MANAGING the WAY you trade with the amount of LEVERAGE you implement.
Depending on the level of risk on can personally handle psychologically, on can reduce their risk by the WAY they trade. For example, if one is experiencing higher stress level because of doubt (for whatever reason) as to whether the price WILL GO DOWN (as they calculate with the indicators), they can MANAGE their emotions by MANAGING the amount of LEVERAGE in their margin short position. If you don't feel quite confident in a particular downward move coming up but leaning 60 percent of it going down and 40 percent of it going flat or up; you can simply do 1x leverage. If your confidence level is much higher based on what you are seeing within the indicators, you can increase your leverage accordingly. This way, you are taking EMOTIONS even more out of your TRADE by MANAGING the WAY you trade with the amount of LEVERAGE you implement.
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Weekly Time Frame:
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Give this one some time... We're still working on it... ; )
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3-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
4-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
5-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
6-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015:
9-Day Time Frame Comparison to 4th Quarter, 2015: