It appears to me that we are currently in a bear flag above the support line of 6000. Currently, on a larger time frame, bitcoin is currently moving in the direction of the pennant that I have illustrated in yellow and the pole which is in green, the pole current puts bitcoin at around 4800, however, it is important to know that the pennant has a close to 50% failure rate, so this target objective may or may not be reached. For this to be a strong triple bottom as I have suggested before, the bulls would have to break out of the ascending channel/bear flag (in light blue) that is currently being formed after this last and stronger push. Buy volume is increasing but it currently is not enough for me to conclusively state that a break out will occur and in turn a trend reversal.
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The break down of the ascending triangle, is marked by the first yellow line down, which was the width of the triangle, and then it concluded to make another bear flag (yellow), which had a price objective around 6000. However, this makes a much larger bear flag (blue), which has a target of around 5500. Flags have an approximate success rate of 75%. So the only way it will fail is if the flag fails to form or if the buy volume picks up and forms a potential triple bottom.
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There is still a possibility for an inverted head and shoulder pattern to form on the smaller time frame as well as the larger one.
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This outcome is still possible, however, pennants have a success rate close to 50% so it is possible that this pennant fails but buy volume is picking up on the bullish end.
This outcome is still possible, however, pennants have a success rate close to 50% so it is possible that this pennant fails but buy volume is picking up on the bullish end.
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This could be a turning point because the downward movements have been rejected around the 30 point RSI on the daily, however, one thing that I would love to see to confirm this is a lower low around or below the support with bullish divergence and a possible inverted head and shoulder.
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IF this is a triple bottom I would love to see this
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If the bulls can push past 7000 there is a possible chance for a head and shoulder formation. 7000 is the resistance of the current descending trendline.
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On the 30min, there is currently a symmetrical triangle, (I have also been calling the ascending wedge a triangle earlier by accident) and the price objectives are currently set in the picture. 6800 on the upside and 6640 on the downside, give the aggression of the bulls I would say it is slightly more probable that the objective is on the upside.
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I will change that to 50/50. Or 65% probability on the downside.
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There is a small bear flag on the 30 min candle, that places the next price objective around 6500 but there is strong support in that area.
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Change it: instead of a flag it’s a pennant and it’s probably of going down is now I would say slightly over 50%.
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It looks like a bear flag
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It looks like a possible ascending triangle! And if it breaks out it’s target will be around 7200 and it would be a strong set up for a inverse head and shoulder pattern!
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There is another inverse head and shoulder pattern I feel as if I have been looking at, but I don’t know how valid it is.
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My final analysis for this thread, I believe the ascending triangle will breakdown, and the breakout of the bear flag will continue downwards.
