This is my best-guess for Bitcoin's path, based on the descending channel, bear flag target, and fibonacci retracement pattern from the $11,800 double top crash.
When BTC crashed from $11,800 double top, it made a strong bounce around 0.5 retracement to 0.382 retracement and then oscillated between 0.5 and 0.382 retracement before making the (semi) final drop to .786 retracement($7200)
$7200 is also the target for the big-ass bear flag that we have. If we get to $7200, I expect that we will bounce to at least $8200 (0.5 retracement)
When BTC crashed from $11,800 double top, it made a strong bounce around 0.5 retracement to 0.382 retracement and then oscillated between 0.5 and 0.382 retracement before making the (semi) final drop to .786 retracement($7200)
$7200 is also the target for the big-ass bear flag that we have. If we get to $7200, I expect that we will bounce to at least $8200 (0.5 retracement)
Comment:
In the original chart, the upper line is a little bit below than it should be. It looks like BTC is falling back into the channel, only leaving a wick above. Looks pretty similar to the previous rejection around $8880.
IMO, if whales wanted to break out of the channel, BTC would be at $8500 already.
In the original chart, the upper line is a little bit below than it should be. It looks like BTC is falling back into the channel, only leaving a wick above. Looks pretty similar to the previous rejection around $8880.
IMO, if whales wanted to break out of the channel, BTC would be at $8500 already.
Comment:
BTC has deviated from the fractal. However, I'm not expecting much upside from here (that $8880 previous high will be a bit** to break)
Very difficult to hold long positions when the overall trend is down (LL LH)
BTC has deviated from the fractal. However, I'm not expecting much upside from here (that $8880 previous high will be a bit** to break)
Very difficult to hold long positions when the overall trend is down (LL LH)
Comment:
0.618 retracement reached (finally)..
I expect the maximum of this bounce to be at 8100's, not more.
0.618 retracement reached (finally)..
I expect the maximum of this bounce to be at 8100's, not more.
Comment:
This is my worst case scenario for bitcoin:
If anybody is familiar with the Ebay chart in early 2009, it bears much similarity to BTC right now, and the blue line corresponds to how Ebay played out.
Having said that, I'm not saying that's how BTC will play out. I will probably go long at 7300 (365D SMA) and have a stop loss at 7100. Not long at 7200 because almost everybody expects 7200.
If 7000's don't hold, I'm not sure 6800 would hold. Maybe it will make a dead cat bounce like the blue line above
Having said that, I'm not saying that's how BTC will play out. I will probably go long at 7300 (365D SMA) and have a stop loss at 7100. Not long at 7200 because almost everybody expects 7200.
If 7000's don't hold, I'm not sure 6800 would hold. Maybe it will make a dead cat bounce like the blue line above
Currently at the top of the descending channel. I would probably have second thoughts if we break 8600 and change my mind if we break 8880