garyreza

Are we going to see a reversal soon?? - Part 3 (continuation)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The most important thing in order to predict the reversal point is to find out the downtrend timeframe. For sure its not a downtrend happening on daily chart timeframe. So is it 3D or Weekly?
On the 3D chart we see that the price is siting at the EMA200 (EMA200 is usually the reversal point for the timeframe that the downtrend is happening). So if it was a downtrend on a 3D chart, we might be at the reversal point. However people say that there is falling wedge forming which is usually a bearish continuation pattern. But we need to remember that lines (support, resistance, neckline, …) in chart patterns are not exactly lines but areas. and the last two tops $11450 and $9700 are not that much far away that they can not be in a same area. I'm not saying that its definitely true but we still have a chance to see the triple bot formation, especially with price sitting at 3D EMA200, Stochastic showing triple bots, and TD seq which predicted last two bots correctly is going to mark the 9th candle ( we need to wait till mid week for this).

The Vol has been decreasing, which can be a good or a bad sign. It can be a good sign because when the Vol is decreasing there is going to be a sudden move, up or down??? depends on the other factors. A triple bot is a consolidation phase and the Vol should decrease, but it doesn't invalidate the falling wedge theory. Also Bollinger bands has been contracting which again is the consolidation sign.

Well there is lots of things that need to happen in order to see the reversal, breaking the support area , on 3D chart stoch gets above 20, macd turn to be positive, and waiting for the DMI signal.

If the downtrend is going to be one happening at weekly timeframe , the reversal point will be around $4000 which is the EMA 200 region. It should not happen because recovering from a weekly downtrend needs 1-2 years. However recovering from a 3D downtrend can happen in 6 months. As you can see in the picture.
So to conclude I hope for 3D downtrend, which means the support area that we are at right now should hold. but if it breaks down (=breaking down the EMA200 on 3D chart) and we see the confirmation, we should wait for the $4000. I like to say its not likely to happen, but we have to wait and see what market decides.

It can be a good idea to start buying BTC in steps, like buying 25% now, and buying in steps if the price goes up or down (either one). This will guarantee you get will buy at a better price with kinda no risk.

Remember that "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

Best,
Garyreza (@Analytca)

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