Bitcoin is Entering A Long Bear to Bull Transition Phase (BTC)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the daily BTC chart, you can see that price is clearly in an area that is rife with resistance. The first thing I would like to draw your attention to, is the 150 day moving average (in light blue.) As you can see, this average is an extremely important one to follow. It was particularly useful for support in the beginning stages of the bull market, and now, it is an important indicator of overhead resistance, in these final stages of the bear market. If you've been following my analyses for the past few months, you know that I have also been talking about how BTC is in a downtrend channel (in black.) Technically, it is more of a falling wedge than a channel, and I believe that this formation will eventually produce a gentle breakout to the upside. I say "gentle," because I don't believe that the market is going to just start to rip higher anytime soon. Although anything is possible, I do believe that there is a much higher probability that BTC will continue to chop sideways for the majority of the year, in a range between 3,200 and the low 4000s.
Looking at the chart, we can see that price has been forming a triangle pattern since December (in pink.) Such formations are continuation patterns, and the market has been in a downtrend since the all time high. So, technically, the "continuation" should be to the downside. Regardless, I don't believe that the downside risk is that great. It is always possible that the market could put in a lower low, and if that happens, I will be happy to buy more. =D However, I do think the downside risk is likely to be limited to around 3200 or so.
Looking at the action inside of the triangle, we can see that the recent rise from the second trough, has a 61.8% retracement line drawn. I've put that trendline there, because after the last bear market bottomed, price stabilized on that 61.8% level — the same one that can be generated from the second trough after the low of the last bear market. So, if history wants to repeat itself (as it often tends to do) I will be ready to observe the repetition.
Looking more closely at the 150 EMA (in light blue) we can see that price held it consistently through the beginning of the bull market. Then, price eventually entered a parabolic trend, where the 150 EMA became less significant. Since then, we can see that price has fallen below the 150 EMA, and as the bear market has progressed, we can see that the 150 EMA has been highly resistive. In fact, nearly all of the previous peaks either stopped directly on the 150 EMA, or somewhere near it. Looking at the current price action, you can see that we are just below the 150 EMA.
We can see that the 150 EMA is clearly resistive. That average is currently intersecting other very powerful resistance levels — the top of the triangle (in pink) and the top of the falling wedge (in black.) This clear resistance is why the market volume is so quiet right now. We're in a sideways consolidation, and until price is able to break higher or lower, volume will probably remain quiet.
As I've said on many occasions, I believe that the market will just continue a long grind sideways from here. I don't see a major breakout toward 6000 in the cards right now. Based on my analyses, I think it is far more likely that Bitcoin will breakout for 6000 closer toward the end of the year. Even then, I believe it is likely to be a slow grind on a slightly uphill slope, as opposed to an explosive breakout to the upside. I still believe that the market has probably bottomed, but we may see a retest of the 3150 level sometime in October, before the next bull market begins.
On a side note, I would like to express my view that Bitcoin is, and will ALWAYS be, the greatest cryptocurrency in existence. Even highly praised coins like Monero, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin and others, pale in comparison to the REAL genesis of crypto. We all have different opinions on that, but my view is that Bitcoin will revolutionize global finance, in a way that completely reshapes our global economic system. It is a freedom provider in every sense of the term. It is REAL money, and the world is slowly waking up to that.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at the chart, we can see that price has been forming a triangle pattern since December (in pink.) Such formations are continuation patterns, and the market has been in a downtrend since the all time high. So, technically, the "continuation" should be to the downside. Regardless, I don't believe that the downside risk is that great. It is always possible that the market could put in a lower low, and if that happens, I will be happy to buy more. =D However, I do think the downside risk is likely to be limited to around 3200 or so.
Looking at the action inside of the triangle, we can see that the recent rise from the second trough, has a 61.8% retracement line drawn. I've put that trendline there, because after the last bear market bottomed, price stabilized on that 61.8% level — the same one that can be generated from the second trough after the low of the last bear market. So, if history wants to repeat itself (as it often tends to do) I will be ready to observe the repetition.
Looking more closely at the 150 EMA (in light blue) we can see that price held it consistently through the beginning of the bull market. Then, price eventually entered a parabolic trend, where the 150 EMA became less significant. Since then, we can see that price has fallen below the 150 EMA, and as the bear market has progressed, we can see that the 150 EMA has been highly resistive. In fact, nearly all of the previous peaks either stopped directly on the 150 EMA, or somewhere near it. Looking at the current price action, you can see that we are just below the 150 EMA.
We can see that the 150 EMA is clearly resistive. That average is currently intersecting other very powerful resistance levels — the top of the triangle (in pink) and the top of the falling wedge (in black.) This clear resistance is why the market volume is so quiet right now. We're in a sideways consolidation, and until price is able to break higher or lower, volume will probably remain quiet.
As I've said on many occasions, I believe that the market will just continue a long grind sideways from here. I don't see a major breakout toward 6000 in the cards right now. Based on my analyses, I think it is far more likely that Bitcoin will breakout for 6000 closer toward the end of the year. Even then, I believe it is likely to be a slow grind on a slightly uphill slope, as opposed to an explosive breakout to the upside. I still believe that the market has probably bottomed, but we may see a retest of the 3150 level sometime in October, before the next bull market begins.
On a side note, I would like to express my view that Bitcoin is, and will ALWAYS be, the greatest cryptocurrency in existence. Even highly praised coins like Monero, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin and others, pale in comparison to the REAL genesis of crypto. We all have different opinions on that, but my view is that Bitcoin will revolutionize global finance, in a way that completely reshapes our global economic system. It is a freedom provider in every sense of the term. It is REAL money, and the world is slowly waking up to that.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
