Anatomy of a Bear Market: 2018 Bear Market or Correction
In the Anatomy of a Bear Market Series I compare 3 Bitcoin Bear markets using Daily Ichimoku and S/R: 2013, 2014 and 2018. Here's my take on the current 2018 market.
2018 is both a bear market and a bull market's correction (it's not clear how it will play out) with the following structure:
- both flat cloud tops and bottoms, thick cloud => mixed market
- shallow S1 and S2 supports => somewhat healthy bullish correction like in 2013
- no major S1, S2 => somewhat bearish like in 2014
- steep trend line angle => likely an up trend, like in 2013
- no S3 dip so far (a large dip = bullish, shallow dip = bearish continuation)
- key trend support is not broken yet
This market structure is similar to the 2014 Bear Market, but it also has elements of the 2013 bullish correction market, so it can be a correction as well.
Conclusions:
- to go up we must first dip down in S3. The larger this dip will be the greater the probability of a subsequent up trend. Different arrows show potential moves.
Possible alt deeper S3 and R3 points are mapped from corresponding levels on 2013 and 2014 charts with their trend line relationships preserved.
- we will definitely NOT retest prev highs by June 11th when a flat cloud bottom starts on a Weekly (~10000) => likely bearish continuation
And in a couple of days we will also have a flat cloud bottom on a Daily (8150). So, a bounce down on both D1 and W1 will be likely.
It seems that we can only retest R2 10000 on August 6th at the earliest and in early September for the 2nd time.
For now we can decline further or go as high as 8150, then crash down. We will likely break down the trend support in S3 at some point.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based only on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do you own research to confirm.
2018 is both a bear market and a bull market's correction (it's not clear how it will play out) with the following structure:
- both flat cloud tops and bottoms, thick cloud => mixed market
- shallow S1 and S2 supports => somewhat healthy bullish correction like in 2013
- no major S1, S2 => somewhat bearish like in 2014
- steep trend line angle => likely an up trend, like in 2013
- no S3 dip so far (a large dip = bullish, shallow dip = bearish continuation)
- key trend support is not broken yet
This market structure is similar to the 2014 Bear Market, but it also has elements of the 2013 bullish correction market, so it can be a correction as well.
Conclusions:
- to go up we must first dip down in S3. The larger this dip will be the greater the probability of a subsequent up trend. Different arrows show potential moves.
Possible alt deeper S3 and R3 points are mapped from corresponding levels on 2013 and 2014 charts with their trend line relationships preserved.
- we will definitely NOT retest prev highs by June 11th when a flat cloud bottom starts on a Weekly (~10000) => likely bearish continuation
And in a couple of days we will also have a flat cloud bottom on a Daily (8150). So, a bounce down on both D1 and W1 will be likely.
It seems that we can only retest R2 10000 on August 6th at the earliest and in early September for the 2nd time.
For now we can decline further or go as high as 8150, then crash down. We will likely break down the trend support in S3 at some point.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based only on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do you own research to confirm.
Comment:
Compare with 2013 and 2014 markets:
Comment:
