2018 is both a bear market and a bull market's correction (it's not clear how it will play out) with the following structure:
- both flat cloud tops and bottoms, thick cloud => mixed market
- shallow S1 and S2 supports => somewhat healthy correction like in 2013
- no major S1, S2 => somewhat like in 2014
- steep angle => likely an up trend, like in 2013
- no S3 dip so far (a large dip = , shallow dip = continuation)
- key trend support is not broken yet
This market structure is similar to the 2014 Bear Market, but it also has elements of the 2013 correction market, so it can be a correction as well.
- to go up we must first dip down in S3. The larger this dip will be the greater the probability of a subsequent up trend. Different arrows show potential moves.
Possible alt deeper S3 and R3 points are mapped from corresponding levels on 2013 and 2014 charts with their relationships preserved.
- we will definitely NOT retest prev highs by June 11th when a flat cloud bottom starts on a Weekly (~10000) => likely continuation
And in a couple of days we will also have a flat cloud bottom on a Daily (8150). So, a bounce down on both D1 and W1 will be likely.
It seems that we can only retest R2 10000 on August 6th at the earliest and in early September for the 2nd time.
For now we can decline further or go as high as 8150, then crash down. We will likely break down the trend support in S3 at some point.
Please don't trade based only on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do you own research to confirm.
Its always impossible until it happens. Take care :)
You know, just playing the odds untill they favor one side. DJI is "crashing" they will start comparing it with previous crashes, this is just how human psychology works, impulsive and looking back for an answer.
I dont see much either, but as of now i see a retest of 7.8-8 . There is definately gonna be sell pressure over there and we will see what happens next, maybe a retest of that low and a bounce at 6.8k.
But, there is no much favor for the bear scenario either. There is sideways action ( accumulation or distribution ) with decreasing volume and volatility, so a perma bull can say "sell pressure is decreasing overall" . Constance Brown says on her book 2 things but i wont quote them exactly:
1) A C wave in a triangle can be complex and it always causes confusion by dividing both the bears and the bulls
2) A pattern that is repeating and slowly shrinking its part of a correction and will lead to a spectacular move
She doesnt state which way tho. lol
Now, you may say "part of the correction and triangle so its a B before the C leg down". BUT! Dont forget that it can be a b of a B wave up.
Its a clear 50-50 on the longer term, honestly. Besides, the moku is just a 50% retracement tool with different amount of candles (inputs) and offsetting them to the right.
I cant tell about the effectiveness of the moku. Mathematically its a 50% retracement with 2 different inputs and offset their difference to the right. Think about it as MACD, Kijun and Tenkan are the MACD and the signal and the cloud is the histogram but offseted to the right. Its not a projection tool, its "the history projected to the future".