Hen0xyd

Wave 1 decomposition since drop

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Here is a quick try to EW count after the big drop which occured early January.
To me this drop marked the end of ABC correction for 2014 falling wedge.
We still need to break the big resistance trendline (big blue line in my chart if you zoom out) to be able to tell whether or not bear market has ended.

Pretty clear impulse waves are defined. Feel free to contest and argue about my count, i'm very young to EW analysis.

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ChartArt
2 years ago
I wish you are right, but this too complicated for most people. But I make sure to keep this idea in mind.

There is a reason why we had so much FOMO on Sunday. People didn't see that $200 was cheap weeks ago so they FOMO bought the more expensive (and overbought) BTC got. Those same people are now selling into any tiny uptrend.
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Hen0xyd ChartArt
2 years ago
You're right about the FOMO thinking. People who lost the train don't want to miss again. But can we blame them since, for now, each time price doubled in 2 weeks it ended with new ATH in following months ?

Bear market isn't officially over but several elements are leading me to think we won't see $200- again.
First : bottoming, volume which was the 2nd most impressive ever (1st being Nov '13 ATH drop), and its rebound.
Also, with ABC correction being over we have seen clearly not corrective waves happening.

I'm not sure about my wave 4 (abc) cause 'a' may be placed instead of yellow 4, allowing the correction 'c' to end in the 200-230 range.

I guess it's always good habit to watch contrary ideas, so I'll keep an eye on your charts too ^^
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ChartArt Hen0xyd
2 years ago
Let's see if Coinbase new exchange with so much good press can attract enough new buyers so quickly to sustain the uptrend.
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