There's two routes I think Bitcoin has a strong chance it will take. Blue Line and Orange Line. Both of which eventually reach $8,800 or higher by mid January, but with a prime opportunity and spot (green circle area at the top trend line) to fill the CME $11.7k gap; I am hoping we touch that price instead by mid-January.
The two paths depend heavily on if we make it back above the weekly 50 MA or not this week. I lean heavily towards the Blue Line being most likely to happen which is that it will fail, dump down, create a shoulder, create a head (local bottom possibly on weekly 200 MA), and a last shoulder (this all in December) that should ultimately take this inverse head and shoulders pattern sideways out of the descending channel and exiting out the right (sometime in the first or second week of January). I don't think we are in a descending wedge (meaning the bottom is actually much lower than people anticipate but much higher than the super bears), and I believe we don't "shoot" out of this channel, but rather hit the bottom trend line of it again, then kind of scoot along sideways until we're out of it.
Here are some other factors I'm looking at:
- End of year. Annual wash trade to get those capital gains taxes in check. Which btw; the US has no tax wash laws for crypto currently. I don't forsee any rallys coming in December except a bottom and then a range before a following rally that will occur in early 2020. An inverse head and shoulders play would be perfect here in December, and it would also be a reverse pattern strong and convincing enough to warrant a rally to $11.7k starting possibly in January. I am not certain if we find an "absolute bottom" for this entire Bitcoin thing, but I do think we find a local bottom sometime in December that would be a good entry to a possibly relief rally.
- CME gap at $11.7k. Gaps don't have to be filled any time; it could be weeks, months, even years. However, I'm thinking CME is aiming for sooner rather than later. The top trend line drawn from the peaks of the two big rallys puts the price $11,700k in that January month. I think this would be a good spot where it would meet and touch the price and then get knocked back down from the top trend line resistance.
- Retail trader's sentiment is about 50/50 right now. The big overall trend is Down however, and it is likely the big ocean current will continue winning for the mid-term.
- The future Halving imo should not be too heavily weighted as I believe Bitcoin since the last halving include much bigger, financially experienced whales that not only have the ability to short (and capital and time), but to be able to Price In events before they are even in the picture view yet. It might be a possibly that the last rally with the $13k top was indeed the Pricing In.
- CNBC has unleashed a flury of negative bearish tweets including bad news of big drops, and a short article posted appearing on the front main website page. CNBC coupled with FUD from China's crypto bans. However, Usually with public "bad" news - it will create a short term opposite move (in this case a short bounce) but then return back to actually being bear'ish just like CNBC is presenting. However, it usually also means that there is a local bottom not too distant with only one or two more legs down in the sell off.
It's probably more stuff I looked into and analyzed and can't think of. Kind of short on time, but hopefully this gives you an another perspective or angle towards your own predictions. Anyways... Good luck.
The two paths depend heavily on if we make it back above the weekly 50 MA or not this week. I lean heavily towards the Blue Line being most likely to happen which is that it will fail, dump down, create a shoulder, create a head (local bottom possibly on weekly 200 MA), and a last shoulder (this all in December) that should ultimately take this inverse head and shoulders pattern sideways out of the descending channel and exiting out the right (sometime in the first or second week of January). I don't think we are in a descending wedge (meaning the bottom is actually much lower than people anticipate but much higher than the super bears), and I believe we don't "shoot" out of this channel, but rather hit the bottom trend line of it again, then kind of scoot along sideways until we're out of it.
Here are some other factors I'm looking at:
- End of year. Annual wash trade to get those capital gains taxes in check. Which btw; the US has no tax wash laws for crypto currently. I don't forsee any rallys coming in December except a bottom and then a range before a following rally that will occur in early 2020. An inverse head and shoulders play would be perfect here in December, and it would also be a reverse pattern strong and convincing enough to warrant a rally to $11.7k starting possibly in January. I am not certain if we find an "absolute bottom" for this entire Bitcoin thing, but I do think we find a local bottom sometime in December that would be a good entry to a possibly relief rally.
- CME gap at $11.7k. Gaps don't have to be filled any time; it could be weeks, months, even years. However, I'm thinking CME is aiming for sooner rather than later. The top trend line drawn from the peaks of the two big rallys puts the price $11,700k in that January month. I think this would be a good spot where it would meet and touch the price and then get knocked back down from the top trend line resistance.
- Retail trader's sentiment is about 50/50 right now. The big overall trend is Down however, and it is likely the big ocean current will continue winning for the mid-term.
- The future Halving imo should not be too heavily weighted as I believe Bitcoin since the last halving include much bigger, financially experienced whales that not only have the ability to short (and capital and time), but to be able to Price In events before they are even in the picture view yet. It might be a possibly that the last rally with the $13k top was indeed the Pricing In.
- CNBC has unleashed a flury of negative bearish tweets including bad news of big drops, and a short article posted appearing on the front main website page. CNBC coupled with FUD from China's crypto bans. However, Usually with public "bad" news - it will create a short term opposite move (in this case a short bounce) but then return back to actually being bear'ish just like CNBC is presenting. However, it usually also means that there is a local bottom not too distant with only one or two more legs down in the sell off.
It's probably more stuff I looked into and analyzed and can't think of. Kind of short on time, but hopefully this gives you an another perspective or angle towards your own predictions. Anyways... Good luck.