Well, I'm kinda surprised we didn't break 30k. This hasn't really made me more bullish though. We bounced off that same ~31k zone that we've bounced off of 3 other times. If we hit it again, there should be a much higher chance of breaking through that bottom. I think this is probably a more likley scenario than going up. It's likley to happen sooner at any rate, by the next wave rather than how ever many it's going to take to get to aug-sep when it has a good chance of breaking through the top most trend line and having a shot at restarting bullish momentum.
The lower it goes, the longer we wait around with the bears and the crabs in control of this market. If we don't show bullishness by November, my model's time scale will likley be invalidated and we're waiting for the next halving in 2024 or w/e, and it'll back to the drawing board for me at that point.
Beyond bouncing to the top of the zone again and then breaking lower there's a few other scenarios. It could also fail to recover as it has in the past and collapse, but I think that's less likley than testing the range again over the next few days and probably bouncing back down and finally through the 31k line.
We could also bounce around in the range until it catches up to the long term trend line that it would need to break to resume the bull run and confirm lengthening cycles and another double bubble bull run like 2013, just at a much grander scale. Staying in the range long enough to break through this line seems less likley by the day, but perhaps that's just because prices are down and it's messing with me. It's not fun to be trapped in the crab market. The obvious triangle that's forming there just has me feeling bad because I'm generally bullish on crypto and I always want it to do good. It's basically a middle finger to banks, how could you not want that to thrive?
I guess we could also get some big push and fly through the roof here, I've heard many people call a trip bottom bullish, but time will tell on that one. I wouldn't hold my breath.
When we break 30k My main price targets are 24 and then 19k if that breaks. If this is the bear market, our absolute bottom should be around 10 or 14 k or something like that... It's always possible but I really don't see us getting there just yet..... But if we do that's a heck of a discount... unless you bought in at 56-60k, in which case, just hold on till the next mega wave, either next spring or 3 years from now, depending on how tings play out.
I'd also say, even though I wouldn't be surprised to see 24k or 19k, I wouldn't try to short here. I wouldn't make any leveraged play until BTC decides a direction decisively, at any rate.
The lower it goes, the longer we wait around with the bears and the crabs in control of this market. If we don't show bullishness by November, my model's time scale will likley be invalidated and we're waiting for the next halving in 2024 or w/e, and it'll back to the drawing board for me at that point.
Beyond bouncing to the top of the zone again and then breaking lower there's a few other scenarios. It could also fail to recover as it has in the past and collapse, but I think that's less likley than testing the range again over the next few days and probably bouncing back down and finally through the 31k line.
We could also bounce around in the range until it catches up to the long term trend line that it would need to break to resume the bull run and confirm lengthening cycles and another double bubble bull run like 2013, just at a much grander scale. Staying in the range long enough to break through this line seems less likley by the day, but perhaps that's just because prices are down and it's messing with me. It's not fun to be trapped in the crab market. The obvious triangle that's forming there just has me feeling bad because I'm generally bullish on crypto and I always want it to do good. It's basically a middle finger to banks, how could you not want that to thrive?
I guess we could also get some big push and fly through the roof here, I've heard many people call a trip bottom bullish, but time will tell on that one. I wouldn't hold my breath.
When we break 30k My main price targets are 24 and then 19k if that breaks. If this is the bear market, our absolute bottom should be around 10 or 14 k or something like that... It's always possible but I really don't see us getting there just yet..... But if we do that's a heck of a discount... unless you bought in at 56-60k, in which case, just hold on till the next mega wave, either next spring or 3 years from now, depending on how tings play out.
I'd also say, even though I wouldn't be surprised to see 24k or 19k, I wouldn't try to short here. I wouldn't make any leveraged play until BTC decides a direction decisively, at any rate.
Comment:
And now we're back to tracing the range.... Like I said, I'd avoid leveraged plays here, btc is too indecisive.
We did put in a lower wick than before, which makes sense, each wave in this sideways area we have been trading in should increase in volatility till it breaks out.We're still kind of low, hovering between 31-33, So more lows are likley, and this pump might be very short lived indeed.
We did put in a lower wick than before, which makes sense, each wave in this sideways area we have been trading in should increase in volatility till it breaks out.We're still kind of low, hovering between 31-33, So more lows are likley, and this pump might be very short lived indeed.
anyways, BTC to 19k at least if this continues, this was the most bearish outcome, so it's the one most likley to take us under the 19k line that I see as the true entry into the bear market... We're already breaking 30k...