AndrewEDavis

BTC on subwave-2 of wave-C, preparing to start another Bullrun

Long
AndrewEDavis Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
A wave count for consideration.
I see (zoomed out, starting from the bottom) we just ended what looks like 5 subwaves (starting possibly wave-2 of a larger wave-C) after an ABC correction.
If correct. We could get one small wave up, then down, then another Bull run upward.
Comment:
I now realized something.
(Can't remember what retracement points I used in the last chart)
But if I take a retracement from point 1 to 5 in this small wave here, we have already corrected to the 0.618 level.

I am looking to see if there will be a bounce or not, at around ~8440.
Otherwise, I review my other chart again, which had a lower wave-C target

Comment:
#Bitcoin 8440 didn't hold, however, we are now exactly on point with my previous ABC count. Let's see how this plays out.
Comment:
#Bitcoin Double touched exactly on my 8300 target. Showing some signs of life. Still too early to confirm though.
I need to get to sleep. Would have liked to set next targets (if my count holds), but I need at least wave-1 to complete and retrace, to estimate wave 3 & 5 targets.

Comment:
Looks like my count and bottom target were correct.
#Bitcoin started an uptrend after touching my 8300 target.
I entered Long between 8300-8400, as I trusted this count. $BTC

Comment:
(Posting quickly as some asked for targets).
Wave-3 (which we are on now), I estimate could end around my 8900 target range, it could have one more small subwave-5 up.
(Personally, I have started taking some profit, since I'm well up for the day, got in at my bottom point.)

As for waves 4 & 5, let's do this one step at a time, and confirm where wave-3 ends first.
(Very rough estimate of wave-4 @ 8650 in my chart)

Now about to have "breakfast" for the day (2:08 pm here) :)
Will be back in a bit.

Comment:
We have likely completed wave-3, and have just started a wave-4 correction (don't worry for HODLers, won't be too long till we move up again).
Wave-4 end targets are roughly: 8680 to 8600 range

Comment:
Bitcoin just got an extra push to reach the very top of my target range for wave-3. Will update for wave-4 target once we've confirmed end of wave-3.

Comment:
#Bitcoin ABC correction (wave-4) looks a bit bullish so far.
(So I'm not sure if it will retrace heavily)
I have two general target regions: ~8800 and ~8690

Comment:
BTC did hit one of my 2 target ranges for a very minor subwave-4 retracement.
I was hoping for a deeper retrace, but I did mention earlier that it looked bullish and could end abruptly.
There may or may not be one last subwave up, I don't recommend jumping in at this position.

There really wasn't any good/safe play here for the past few hours.
Too little retracement to worth the risk for only ~2% gains. Not a safe risk to reward ratio.
We don't want to gamble with out investments.
We take chances, yes, but when the profit probability is in our favor.

I assume that the this current wave could end anywhere between here and ~9300 (still poor risk-to-reward to jump in now), so I've just slightly adjusted wave-4 target, assuming an average 9200 end point for wave-3.
Wave-4 rough target: ~8680

Comment:
Congrats for those who didn't jump in at this point (~9120) like I recommended not to. We haven't yet recovered to that price since. #BTC


If my wave counts are correct, my target areas for wave-C retracement before next Bull-run:
$BTC to ~8810 or ~8655 range
Keep in mind that we've had very bullish/limited retracements since the start of this run up. No guarantee it retraces heavy, or that we haven't completed w-C.

Comment:
BTC - There is a "good chance" that we have completed this ABC correction.
We got to exactly the middle of my two targets, and have a slight bounce so far.
Again I make it clear that these waves are hard to count/interpret, a lot of overlapping whatever way I try to count this.


Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.