So... I'm leaning bullish but we are in a pretty tight range bound consolidation here. If support at the 200D EMA holds, then the additional support at the 262-268 range will fomo the ask side and push us up likely to OTE in the 295/300 range.
12H Willy is at stupid levels, which does not indicate a bottom because it can keep "trending" at the bottom if the market is truly bearish (see Dec 2014). A breakout upward from this range will show if we are in "buy the dip" mode for oversold conditions because of underlying bull market, downwards will show if this is simply a leading indicator for more pullback.
12H RMI shows hidden bull div, like most other oscillators, but is it enough? We will see if it's enough for a breakout from this range to the upside, or like willy, if it is a leading indicator for more down.
Major support lies below us at $268 and $262. Problem is dropping there blows our supporting trendline of this entire up move; and shows bearish resolution from a pretty big consolidation up here. 6H bbands are very tight, 12hr surprisingly tight. If we breakout down from here, we could go as far as $240 before serious support is found and a bounce is had. If we dump that far, it's likely 3-6 more months in the $166-315 range will ensue.
A bullish push up from here will likely ensue a Cup & Handle. Not perfectly formed but it might do the trick for our hindsight 20\20.
12H Willy is at stupid levels, which does not indicate a bottom because it can keep "trending" at the bottom if the market is truly bearish (see Dec 2014). A breakout upward from this range will show if we are in "buy the dip" mode for oversold conditions because of underlying bull market, downwards will show if this is simply a leading indicator for more pullback.
12H RMI shows hidden bull div, like most other oscillators, but is it enough? We will see if it's enough for a breakout from this range to the upside, or like willy, if it is a leading indicator for more down.
Major support lies below us at $268 and $262. Problem is dropping there blows our supporting trendline of this entire up move; and shows bearish resolution from a pretty big consolidation up here. 6H bbands are very tight, 12hr surprisingly tight. If we breakout down from here, we could go as far as $240 before serious support is found and a bounce is had. If we dump that far, it's likely 3-6 more months in the $166-315 range will ensue.
A bullish push up from here will likely ensue a Cup & Handle. Not perfectly formed but it might do the trick for our hindsight 20\20.
My upper range of a 450-470 target was more accurate on bitfinex; because their wick to $475 in November was much higher than Bitstamp who only went to 450 (and where I based the target on this chart from). Trend-continuation never works out in the end, we always need a retrace.
Maybe we will repeat this setup again, with a small popup from our current level at $380 into the low 400's then do a major retracement to the downside.