Trend-setting pennant; do we form a cup or not?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1441 2 15
So... I'm leaning bullish but we are in a pretty tight range bound consolidation here. If support at the 200D EMA holds, then the additional support at the 262-268 range will fomo the ask side and push us up likely to OTE             in the 295/300 range.

12H Willy is at stupid levels, which does not indicate a bottom because it can keep "trending" at the bottom if the market is truly bearish (see Dec 2014). A breakout upward from this range will show if we are in "buy the dip" mode for oversold conditions because of underlying bull market, downwards will show if this is simply a leading indicator for more pullback.

12H RMI shows hidden bull div             , like most other oscillators, but is it enough? We will see if it's enough for a breakout from this range to the upside, or like willy, if it is a leading indicator for more down.

Major support lies below us at $268 and $262. Problem is dropping there blows our supporting trendline of this entire up move; and shows bearish resolution from a pretty big consolidation up here. 6H bbands are very tight, 12hr surprisingly tight. If we breakout down from here, we could go as far as $240 before serious support is found and a bounce is had. If we dump that far, it's likely 3-6 more months in the $166-315 range will ensue.

A bullish push up from here will likely ensue a Cup & Handle . Not perfectly formed but it might do the trick for our hindsight 20\20.
Comment: Welp... this one didn't work out; but in the end my targets were hit. It only took a few more months than expected.

My upper range of a 450-470 target was more accurate on bitfinex; because their wick to $475 in November was much higher than Bitstamp who only went to 450 (and where I based the target on this chart from). Trend-continuation never works out in the end, we always need a retrace.

Maybe we will repeat this setup again, with a small popup from our current level at $380 into the low 400's then do a major retracement to the downside.
i agree with you on the targets, but ur overlooking the recent double top at 315. i think were just having a retrace to 293-297 before more down. ponzi pump is over, and Greece got bailed out. Only justification for bulls i see is LTC halving at end of august that might get manipulated further to pump.
lowstrife BitcoinGuru
IMO; that "triple" top at the 300-315 resistance is leading. When we were dumping; if we hammered the same support 3 times that was kind of vindictive of breaking through that level. We are hovering awfully close to it and spending a lot of time accumulating near that resistance. I consider that we have done 3 major strikes up at that range and are close to hitting #4.

But yeah this time LTC really gave it the guts to push because of how much it was going up. Then many people fled out of that back into Bitcoin giving it another little leg up. Now we get to see true colors, and after breaking out from such a tight consolidation we spent in the last week....
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