Bitcoin - Still range-bound - Will 2018 repeat itself?

BTCUSD

I know, everyone is talking about this range. Unexperienced traders who are trying to daytrade this will blow up their accounts. Guaranteed. If they haven't already.

In 2018 we dropped around ~54% from the 20k level and Bitcoin was range-bound for about a month, before it continued to drop another ~40%. In hindsight it was obvious one would say. I don't know if this time it's going to be different - But I think if we drop to 31k another time and don't see any buyers stepping in within a day or two, the chances of a break to the downside of this range greatly increase.

Be patient and stay safe.

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As I often say, can't stress this out enough, markets move randomly all the time. No one knows what's going to happen next. Nothing can predict the market. The outcome of every "pattern" happens to be random.

However, what we can do is to observe price behaviour at certain levels. For me these levels are the high-time frame candles (weekly, monthly) at their close/open.

I rarely use trendlines or any kind of diagonal lines as they are highly subjective. One's supportline line is someone else's resistance and vice versa. Most people are adjusting their lines until they fit their narrative. You can't do that with horizontals, they are pure.

I believe it's better to emphasize the possibilities and not try to predict things. It won't work - React to what's happening and not what could happen. There is no such thing as the perfect entry anyway - But there is an opportunity at almost any given market structure.

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To put things into context, these are the levels I am watching for Bitcoin.

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So obviously the red horizontals are marking the range we've been moving in for the last two months already. As you can, or can not, see it's still not clear where the market intends to go. Could break to the downside as well as to the upside. No one knows. But we can react to it when it happens. As of right now it's just a matter of time.

For me it's important to see a solid confirmation, meaning I always wait for the weekly close at least. We haven't had a clear weekly close in either direction yet, only weak intraday moves that give false impressions/hope. People change their bias all the time. This must be so frustrating.

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So for me, as long we don't see a solid weekly close above/below the range I would not dare to make any assumptions - But we can narrow down the possibilites by observing the dynamics of price action.

As I said before, if Bitcoin slowly approches the lows of the range around 31k and we don't see any strength around this level, the chances of dropping lower increase.

Same goes for the top of the range: If Bitcoin approaches the 38-39k region and we don't see any weakness (sudden drops, engulfing intraday candles and such), the chances of a break to the upside increase. But right now it's guessing.

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Interesting to watch how easily people are changing their mind. I was watching the sentiment on weekly open in the chatroom and literally saw bear and bullposts every 5 minutes from the same people.

I don't even know if they are trading or just trolling, but it's beyond pathetic imo. I will surely avoid this chat in the future.

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Still no signs of strength whatsoever. In addition, Bitcoin lost mid-range on the last weekly close. Every move to the upside gets pushed back down immediately. As long as we see this happen, I see no reason to be bullish - But still, unless Bitcoin doesn't lose 32-32.2k on weekly close, there might be a chance, but right now I'm leaning towards a bearish outcome, meaning another 30-40% drop from here. If that happens, I am almost 100% sure we will see a strong relief rally happen.

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Could be the last breaths, hovering over the last weekly support level. Absolutely no signs of strength. Not looking good, but it's not over yet. Need to see this week close below it, then I'm almost certain we will see another 30-40% drop like I said.

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I think the crowded trade right now are fomo shorts. Wouldn't surprise me if we see a quick 3-5% bounce frome here to grab liquidity and then proceed to dump.

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Now we are exactly at the scenario I describe before: "if Bitcoin slowly approches the lows of the range around 31k and we don't see any strength around this level, the chances of dropping lower increase."

Not much time left, think the chances for a red weekly candle are higher than a pump from here, but we will see. The pump needs to be convincing, could turn into a bulltrap otherwise.

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Think we have our answer now.