The past two bull markets show an interesting midway pullback that resulted in a mini bearish movement. I wasn't around for the 2013-2014 bull run but I vividly remember buying my first BTC during the 2017 run up. BTC had topped 5k and began to dip hard. I bought at 4200 and the price kept going down. Being the n00b I was, I remember buying into all the fud, saying the price was headed back to 2k, or even 1k. In hindsight, these calls were clearly being made by the biased TA of folks who had sold just as BTC broke its previous ATH . I sold at 3600, thinking I was smart and would scoop up cheaper bitcoin at 2k.
Guess what? It never came.
Ever again.
I ended up licking my wounds, and buying back in at 4500. My losses were soon forgotten in the euphoria to come.
Where are we today? I'm sure you've read the projections. I'm sure you've seen the expected bull run phase length. We are passing that midway point and go figure, a bump in the road. The FUD has been piled on. Price calls for 36k, 26k, 16k, all coming out. I'm not buying the FUD this time. Instead, I'll buy BTC .
Ok then genius, where do I buy?
Well the dip is already at around 20%. In the 2017 bull run, the midway hump pulled back about 40%, In the 2013 bull run it dropped a whopping 75%! With the way that BTC has matured I think we can rule out the 75% pullback. A 40% pullback, similar to the one seen in 2017, would put BTC at a juicy 39k. I think it's more likely that the pullback is less severe than 2017. My guess is that our pullback will range from 22%-30%, putting BTC in a BTFD range of 50k-44k. Anywhere in this range is an absolute deal of a price, considering where we are in this bull run.
Don't expect a multi-year bear market just yet. Don't buy all the hype of a crash to oblivion. If you bought higher than the current values, lick your wounds and take what liquidity you still have and DCA the dip. If you can catch any BTC in the range of 50k-44k, you're gonna be alright, kid!
Guess what? It never came.
Ever again.
I ended up licking my wounds, and buying back in at 4500. My losses were soon forgotten in the euphoria to come.
Where are we today? I'm sure you've read the projections. I'm sure you've seen the expected bull run phase length. We are passing that midway point and go figure, a bump in the road. The FUD has been piled on. Price calls for 36k, 26k, 16k, all coming out. I'm not buying the FUD this time. Instead, I'll buy BTC .
Ok then genius, where do I buy?
Well the dip is already at around 20%. In the 2017 bull run, the midway hump pulled back about 40%, In the 2013 bull run it dropped a whopping 75%! With the way that BTC has matured I think we can rule out the 75% pullback. A 40% pullback, similar to the one seen in 2017, would put BTC at a juicy 39k. I think it's more likely that the pullback is less severe than 2017. My guess is that our pullback will range from 22%-30%, putting BTC in a BTFD range of 50k-44k. Anywhere in this range is an absolute deal of a price, considering where we are in this bull run.
Don't expect a multi-year bear market just yet. Don't buy all the hype of a crash to oblivion. If you bought higher than the current values, lick your wounds and take what liquidity you still have and DCA the dip. If you can catch any BTC in the range of 50k-44k, you're gonna be alright, kid!
Comment:
Today looks like a dead cat from 47500 to the 52000 range. Expect more down. Trying to catch 46-44k. Don't buy the fud of a 20k BTC. 20k is lost forever.