Bitcoin Extreme Scenarios - realized path will be somewhere w/in
A lot going on here, main takeaway is these are the extremes of what to expect going forward.
Methods used:
- harmonic patterns
- wolfe waves
- control charts (I built my own stability motoring/anomaly detection model in R)
- time series analysis (its a random walk, it really is)
General Expectations: Expecting near-term bounce to 47k-53k by early May (there could be a small drop early next week to 36-38k before starting run to upper 40s), followed by drop to around 30k by late summer. From 30k there will be a retest of 40k and decision there will confirm if recent range has been accumulation or re-distribution - if it continues above 40k and shows SoS above 50k (confirmation of accumulation) then it is mathematically possible to run to new highs (particularly in the 70-75k) range by end of 2022; however, a rejection at 40k after bouncing from 30k would be the SoS confirmation of re-distribution and it would start a nasty drop to around 23k.
Chart Description:
- As the title indicates, this is intended to demonstrate possible paths BTC could take from here - these are most extreme paths so actual path should be expected to fall within green and red projections
- the methods used I made notes on chart but if you have any questions/corrections/objections I'll reply to comments
~ RED Trajectory = most extreme bearish case. If the beginning of this plays out I would expect it to bottom before 13k, likely 19-23k would be bounce zone
~ GREEN Trajectory = most extreme bullish case. Look at MRNA chart back in early 2021 (Jan-March) and notice similarities with BTC from early 2021 until current. MRNA had a smaller periodicity, no doubt accelerated by Covid-related factors/intentions, but MRNA in Mar 2021 was very similar to where BTC is now. Based on the actual structure of BTC void of the MRNA comparative speculation (i.e. based on the maths) I actually think the realized path of BTC will be closer to this bullish extreme - i.e. new highs by end of year
~~~ the black trajectory is a theoretically possible yet very extreme middle ground where BTC gets trapped in a converging vortex around 42k and perpetually stabilizes at that value. At that point time would actually become bi-lateral and the past and future of all time would coincide at a crypto event horizon... only Elon Musk would be able to escape this fate... lmao
Obviously not financial advice because I didn't discuss anything financially plausible nor did I advise. Bless you all, lmk your thoughts.
Methods used:
- harmonic patterns
- wolfe waves
- control charts (I built my own stability motoring/anomaly detection model in R)
- time series analysis (its a random walk, it really is)
General Expectations: Expecting near-term bounce to 47k-53k by early May (there could be a small drop early next week to 36-38k before starting run to upper 40s), followed by drop to around 30k by late summer. From 30k there will be a retest of 40k and decision there will confirm if recent range has been accumulation or re-distribution - if it continues above 40k and shows SoS above 50k (confirmation of accumulation) then it is mathematically possible to run to new highs (particularly in the 70-75k) range by end of 2022; however, a rejection at 40k after bouncing from 30k would be the SoS confirmation of re-distribution and it would start a nasty drop to around 23k.
Chart Description:
- As the title indicates, this is intended to demonstrate possible paths BTC could take from here - these are most extreme paths so actual path should be expected to fall within green and red projections
- the methods used I made notes on chart but if you have any questions/corrections/objections I'll reply to comments
~ RED Trajectory = most extreme bearish case. If the beginning of this plays out I would expect it to bottom before 13k, likely 19-23k would be bounce zone
~ GREEN Trajectory = most extreme bullish case. Look at MRNA chart back in early 2021 (Jan-March) and notice similarities with BTC from early 2021 until current. MRNA had a smaller periodicity, no doubt accelerated by Covid-related factors/intentions, but MRNA in Mar 2021 was very similar to where BTC is now. Based on the actual structure of BTC void of the MRNA comparative speculation (i.e. based on the maths) I actually think the realized path of BTC will be closer to this bullish extreme - i.e. new highs by end of year
~~~ the black trajectory is a theoretically possible yet very extreme middle ground where BTC gets trapped in a converging vortex around 42k and perpetually stabilizes at that value. At that point time would actually become bi-lateral and the past and future of all time would coincide at a crypto event horizon... only Elon Musk would be able to escape this fate... lmao
Obviously not financial advice because I didn't discuss anything financially plausible nor did I advise. Bless you all, lmk your thoughts.
Comment:
run new bars and you'll see the bearish extreme playing out exactly thus far
