TL;DR – Many are saying Buy Now for Long positions. I suggest caution. In the short term, there is a high chance BTC will drop to $6500 and either bounce up from there or potentially dip much lower (potentially testing $6000 & $5500).
I’m a fan of the BTC technology but have learnt over the Bull & Bear trends not to let ‘hopium’ cloud what we’re seeing in the short term with what we might like to see.
On the fundamentals, sure there are many reasons BTC might climb long term including its longevity in the face of competition, it’s nearly indestructible ‘Swiss Bank in your Pocket’ approach with the most manageable small blockchain, use case in unstable countries, the Lightning Network, the coming Halving, the household name, etc etc.
While those are some of the positive fundamentals, there are still plenty of con arguments and forces. In addition, smart money is greedy. If smart money can see a short term way to earn it will be selfish and push a market that way, it doesn’t care what’s best for the herd (sadly).
TA
We have been in a bear cycle since the local top in June this year, doing short pumps and slowly curling down with lower highs and lower lows.
We are now on a descending triangle slowly breaking through the support zone from 7500 to below 7200. This is historically similar to the trend from Dec 2017 ending with the descending triangle Nov 2018 before the significant price drop from 6500 to 3500. The bullish argument was ‘seller fatigue’ both then and now. Instead, the lower highs and lower bounces lean more towards ‘buyer fatigue’ as was proven in Nov 2018.
Descending triangles tend to break through to the downside.
Historically we have a higher ratio of BTC Longs to Short than ever before. This ‘may’ reinforce seller fatigue where all our buyers have already bought in and the only move left is to sell. For Smart money, causing a Long squeeze and creating a sharp, temporary dip would be much too tempting not to.
There are other factors which I don’t have time to chart.
(Now of course, we won’t know for 100% certainty until we look back so, this is not financial advice. Do your own research and don’t invest more than you can afford to lose – without too much pain. And not matter what, Keep smiling and Have a great day there! Take care and feel free to share your views below.)
I’m a fan of the BTC technology but have learnt over the Bull & Bear trends not to let ‘hopium’ cloud what we’re seeing in the short term with what we might like to see.
On the fundamentals, sure there are many reasons BTC might climb long term including its longevity in the face of competition, it’s nearly indestructible ‘Swiss Bank in your Pocket’ approach with the most manageable small blockchain, use case in unstable countries, the Lightning Network, the coming Halving, the household name, etc etc.
While those are some of the positive fundamentals, there are still plenty of con arguments and forces. In addition, smart money is greedy. If smart money can see a short term way to earn it will be selfish and push a market that way, it doesn’t care what’s best for the herd (sadly).
TA
We have been in a bear cycle since the local top in June this year, doing short pumps and slowly curling down with lower highs and lower lows.
We are now on a descending triangle slowly breaking through the support zone from 7500 to below 7200. This is historically similar to the trend from Dec 2017 ending with the descending triangle Nov 2018 before the significant price drop from 6500 to 3500. The bullish argument was ‘seller fatigue’ both then and now. Instead, the lower highs and lower bounces lean more towards ‘buyer fatigue’ as was proven in Nov 2018.
Descending triangles tend to break through to the downside.
Historically we have a higher ratio of BTC Longs to Short than ever before. This ‘may’ reinforce seller fatigue where all our buyers have already bought in and the only move left is to sell. For Smart money, causing a Long squeeze and creating a sharp, temporary dip would be much too tempting not to.
There are other factors which I don’t have time to chart.
(Now of course, we won’t know for 100% certainty until we look back so, this is not financial advice. Do your own research and don’t invest more than you can afford to lose – without too much pain. And not matter what, Keep smiling and Have a great day there! Take care and feel free to share your views below.)
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Currently bouncing off the 7200 support turned to resistance above, trend still in play. Will keep an eye on this if price re-enters the 7200 to 7450 range.
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Time will tell of course but I would caution those loading up Longs. I would watch for a sustained break above 7450.
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As with 7200, whales monitored on Bitfinex were strategically nudging the price up from 7050 to 7150 region trying to defend but this was unsustainable and we saw the overriding trend continue with the expected drop below $7k as charted above. This favours a lower drop to test 6500 and potentially 6000 with either a short term bounce off those levels or potentially breaking lower.
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Chart playing out just as forecast.
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We are now testing $6700 with $6500 clearly in our sites. May have a small bounce there however $6k and below is on the table.
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Currently barely holding above $6600 with buy volume dropping.
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Closed at $6590 for moment as we may see a short term bounce
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Price struggled sideways failing to rise, reopened at $6650 Shorted to $6500 with price bouncing off $6450. Traded this last move manually with so many potential targets between the 6600 to 6000 range.
Time to reassess next move.
Comment if you found this post of value it was a solid profitable trade as laid out in advance.
Time to reassess next move.
Comment if you found this post of value it was a solid profitable trade as laid out in advance.
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*Not sure if anyone was following my trade & updates above but you would have done very well if you had.
Don't let the elegant simplicity of my chart fool you either. I didn't want to rehash all the indicators others have posted as Time = Money applies to me as well. I just share the conclusion with clarity & points of difference to add to the discussions on here. Fresh perspective & deeply researched.
Enjoy the holidays & wishing you the best for 2020 if I'm not on here before.
Don't let the elegant simplicity of my chart fool you either. I didn't want to rehash all the indicators others have posted as Time = Money applies to me as well. I just share the conclusion with clarity & points of difference to add to the discussions on here. Fresh perspective & deeply researched.
Enjoy the holidays & wishing you the best for 2020 if I'm not on here before.
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Update: I've reopened my shorts published above for a second round of profit with margin, from 7175 to 6500. 6500 target adjusted slightly for each exchange.
I'll then be re-assessing on the 6500 bounce momentum then looking to short to 6000 target and re-assess. While there is a slight chance we might bounce to 9k to retest the top of the current downward channel there is a higher chance that belief will exit to lower prices so I'm assessing this cautiously. It's a dramatic time for Bitcoin.
Leave any comments & Happy New Year!
I'll then be re-assessing on the 6500 bounce momentum then looking to short to 6000 target and re-assess. While there is a slight chance we might bounce to 9k to retest the top of the current downward channel there is a higher chance that belief will exit to lower prices so I'm assessing this cautiously. It's a dramatic time for Bitcoin.
Leave any comments & Happy New Year!
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Second round: Stop Loss tripped in profit at 7005 from bounce up from 6900. Will re-assess.