This idea is going to be a bit more 'out there' for most, but somehow I cannot let go of it. So, I'll just throw it out here for anyone who is interested. And let's see how it turns out over the coming months/year.
When you start looking at price action in detail you see fractal patterns repeating themselves on all levels, patterns built up from the same pattern on smaller timescales ad infinitum, etc. Could it be possible that some of these smaller patterns are telling what the future may bring?
When looking at the somewhat larger timeframe, I noticed that the same wave/oscillation on that timeframe, created from the corrections in the recent months, was repeated on the smaller timeframe. The moment price broke throught the red 11-year trendline around February 8th, it made a similar wave, which ended with the ATH at USD 58000, after which we got a dip down to USD 43000 on February 28th. It seems that on the smaller timeframe, a bull-bear cycle has been completed in this pattern, complete with blow-off top.
Now, by taking this pattern on the smaller timeframe and scaling it up, we would roughly see the price action that can be expected. I've done just that with the light blue bar pattern. As mentioned in previous ideas, these fractal patterns are not an exact copy, but they have a lot of similarities. The pattern is taken from the ellipse region on a 15 minute timeframe and scaled up in a large way. I then moved to the 4h timeframe to get a much more zoomed out chart.
In fact, I noticed this about a month ago. Based on this pattern, I was able to 'predict' the large drop on April 18th for myself. Of course, I was in doubt and have no proof of that prediction now. But, to my surprise, it turned out to happen, with the first drop coming to within USD 1000 of what the pattern told me. Subsequently, we dropped some more, which shows the larger timeframe has a more complex structure. This also makes it difficult to use it for anything but an idea of what will happen.
However, what puzzles me is how seemingly random events such as this large liquidation crash on April 18th seem to be predicted in these patterns upfront. It starts to raise philosophical questions how much of our lives is actually already determined. Won't continue that train of thought here, but interesting nonetheless.
I've noticed that the tops seem to match up quite well (see small yellow lines). Certain parts of the pattern take longer/shorter than others, meaning an exact match is not possible. I have now placed and stretched the pattern more or less for the current situation we are in. As you can see, the bar pattern predicts a big double bottom/W being created after which we will reach a new ATH. This corresponds with my previous ideas (see correction symmetry).
If we continue the bar pattern after that, first expect some more volatility. Then, we will have a big move up back above the larger rising wedge (blue trendlines), that we broke down out of on April 18th. After that, another correction/consolidation phase can be see (signified by 2 hills in the green rectangle). Finally, we would then move on to a blow-off top (chart is on log scale). Again, this pattern just happens to end up around USD 100,000 for a blow-off top, which is a plausible psychological target for this cycle.
I'll just continue to track this out of interest. First up, let's see if that large W pattern will become reality.
When you start looking at price action in detail you see fractal patterns repeating themselves on all levels, patterns built up from the same pattern on smaller timescales ad infinitum, etc. Could it be possible that some of these smaller patterns are telling what the future may bring?
When looking at the somewhat larger timeframe, I noticed that the same wave/oscillation on that timeframe, created from the corrections in the recent months, was repeated on the smaller timeframe. The moment price broke throught the red 11-year trendline around February 8th, it made a similar wave, which ended with the ATH at USD 58000, after which we got a dip down to USD 43000 on February 28th. It seems that on the smaller timeframe, a bull-bear cycle has been completed in this pattern, complete with blow-off top.
Now, by taking this pattern on the smaller timeframe and scaling it up, we would roughly see the price action that can be expected. I've done just that with the light blue bar pattern. As mentioned in previous ideas, these fractal patterns are not an exact copy, but they have a lot of similarities. The pattern is taken from the ellipse region on a 15 minute timeframe and scaled up in a large way. I then moved to the 4h timeframe to get a much more zoomed out chart.
In fact, I noticed this about a month ago. Based on this pattern, I was able to 'predict' the large drop on April 18th for myself. Of course, I was in doubt and have no proof of that prediction now. But, to my surprise, it turned out to happen, with the first drop coming to within USD 1000 of what the pattern told me. Subsequently, we dropped some more, which shows the larger timeframe has a more complex structure. This also makes it difficult to use it for anything but an idea of what will happen.
However, what puzzles me is how seemingly random events such as this large liquidation crash on April 18th seem to be predicted in these patterns upfront. It starts to raise philosophical questions how much of our lives is actually already determined. Won't continue that train of thought here, but interesting nonetheless.
I've noticed that the tops seem to match up quite well (see small yellow lines). Certain parts of the pattern take longer/shorter than others, meaning an exact match is not possible. I have now placed and stretched the pattern more or less for the current situation we are in. As you can see, the bar pattern predicts a big double bottom/W being created after which we will reach a new ATH. This corresponds with my previous ideas (see correction symmetry).
If we continue the bar pattern after that, first expect some more volatility. Then, we will have a big move up back above the larger rising wedge (blue trendlines), that we broke down out of on April 18th. After that, another correction/consolidation phase can be see (signified by 2 hills in the green rectangle). Finally, we would then move on to a blow-off top (chart is on log scale). Again, this pattern just happens to end up around USD 100,000 for a blow-off top, which is a plausible psychological target for this cycle.
I'll just continue to track this out of interest. First up, let's see if that large W pattern will become reality.
