I have found that many corrections/retracements in BTC are symmetrical, probably due to its fractal nature. Usually, the price action happening on the way down can be seen happening in reverse on the way up. Obviously, this is not perfect symmetry. Scale is often larger on the way up, which is logical. We wouldn't be able to reach a new ATH otherwise. Also, on a detailed level, peaks and valleys may be a bit higher or lower and take more or less time to complete. This seems to be caused by the fractal nature of the price action, it 'rhymes' but is not exactly the same.
I've applied this to the current correction by taking a bar pattern of the left side of the correction from the recent ATH at USD 65000 to the low around USD 50000, see the large ellipse in my chart. I then flipped this bar pattern and scaled it up. As you can see it matches quite well with the current price action. In my previous post regarding an 11-year trendline I already mentioned that I expect price to go down one more time to the USD 51000 level to complete a large W pattern. This bar pattern is a confirmation for this belief. You can also see a lot of confluence in the small circle where I expect price to come down to:
I'm not quite sure on the exact target, but it might be the white line just below the 0.236 fib level at USD 50942.
Even if we go down a bit further, I would expect massive support by the 11-year trendline now that we broke through it.
Practically speaking, it makes sense to go down one more time. BTC currently has difficulty in breaking the 0.618 fib level. By falling down one more time, it will be able to pick up a lot of liquidity at these lower levels. I'm expecting a large number of buy orders at these levels of people who missed out on the USD 47000 fakeout and subsequent run-up. There was no retest and BTC went up to USD 52000 immediately. This would give BTC the boost to break the 0.618 fib level.
Expect some explosive moves soon!!
I've applied this to the current correction by taking a bar pattern of the left side of the correction from the recent ATH at USD 65000 to the low around USD 50000, see the large ellipse in my chart. I then flipped this bar pattern and scaled it up. As you can see it matches quite well with the current price action. In my previous post regarding an 11-year trendline I already mentioned that I expect price to go down one more time to the USD 51000 level to complete a large W pattern. This bar pattern is a confirmation for this belief. You can also see a lot of confluence in the small circle where I expect price to come down to:
- It is close to support of the red 11-year trendline
- It is supported by the inverse head & shoulders pattern neckline
- It coincides with the 0.236 fib level
- It retraces to the neckline of the previous W pattern around USD 50000 for a final retest of that level
I'm not quite sure on the exact target, but it might be the white line just below the 0.236 fib level at USD 50942.
Even if we go down a bit further, I would expect massive support by the 11-year trendline now that we broke through it.
Practically speaking, it makes sense to go down one more time. BTC currently has difficulty in breaking the 0.618 fib level. By falling down one more time, it will be able to pick up a lot of liquidity at these lower levels. I'm expecting a large number of buy orders at these levels of people who missed out on the USD 47000 fakeout and subsequent run-up. There was no retest and BTC went up to USD 52000 immediately. This would give BTC the boost to break the 0.618 fib level.
Expect some explosive moves soon!!
