As a followup to my previous post (BTC correction symmetry), we now see that my idea worked out relatively well so far.
What surprised me as well was the peak in the blue circle. The bar pattern only shows 2 small peaks, which have turned out much larger in reality. It makes sense though as this created a double top/M, needed to go down to the USD 53800 level yesterday. The bar pattern is now being followed again nicely.
As you can see, BTC dropped out of the ascending triangle formed by the blue trendline and white horizontal line, or alternatively, the rising wedge formed by the blue trendlines.
Also, it is at the moment struggling to make support on the bull run (green) trendline.
If we consider the rising wedge, then the technical target would be the bottom of the wedge, meaning it would go down to USD 47000. The technical target of the ascending triangle is even lower at about USD 45000.
If you look at the bar pattern, you can see it suggests a retest of the lower blue trendline, before dropping further. And finally, it shoots up in what then turned out to be a fakeout.
The question is now which scenario will happen:
1. BTC cannot make support and drops down much further to around USD 45000 levels, this probably means we will enter a longer consolidation phase
2. BTC follows the bar pattern with retest and fakeout to USD 51000 levels
3. BTC recovers from the current dip and keeps on going up after reaching the 0.618 fib level, invalidating the last wick of the bar pattern
I don't (want to) believe option 1 is a real possibility.
I still think option 2 is a likely scenario. However, since the drop yesterday did not go below the previous low (around May 4th, ~USD 53000), the larger double top (April 29th to now) hasn't played out yet.
So, option 3 is definitely a possibility as well. This would mean that the last wick down to USD 51000 would not happen. Still, expect at least a smaller dip as shown by the bar pattern, either at that level or higher up. BTC is currently making a larger cup (V-like) pattern and a smaller cup will always follow that.
As always, uncertainty and excitement until the end.
What surprised me as well was the peak in the blue circle. The bar pattern only shows 2 small peaks, which have turned out much larger in reality. It makes sense though as this created a double top/M, needed to go down to the USD 53800 level yesterday. The bar pattern is now being followed again nicely.
As you can see, BTC dropped out of the ascending triangle formed by the blue trendline and white horizontal line, or alternatively, the rising wedge formed by the blue trendlines.
Also, it is at the moment struggling to make support on the bull run (green) trendline.
If we consider the rising wedge, then the technical target would be the bottom of the wedge, meaning it would go down to USD 47000. The technical target of the ascending triangle is even lower at about USD 45000.
If you look at the bar pattern, you can see it suggests a retest of the lower blue trendline, before dropping further. And finally, it shoots up in what then turned out to be a fakeout.
The question is now which scenario will happen:
1. BTC cannot make support and drops down much further to around USD 45000 levels, this probably means we will enter a longer consolidation phase
2. BTC follows the bar pattern with retest and fakeout to USD 51000 levels
3. BTC recovers from the current dip and keeps on going up after reaching the 0.618 fib level, invalidating the last wick of the bar pattern
I don't (want to) believe option 1 is a real possibility.
I still think option 2 is a likely scenario. However, since the drop yesterday did not go below the previous low (around May 4th, ~USD 53000), the larger double top (April 29th to now) hasn't played out yet.
So, option 3 is definitely a possibility as well. This would mean that the last wick down to USD 51000 would not happen. Still, expect at least a smaller dip as shown by the bar pattern, either at that level or higher up. BTC is currently making a larger cup (V-like) pattern and a smaller cup will always follow that.
As always, uncertainty and excitement until the end.
