Bitcoin Analysis - Breaking the Pitchfork
Bitcoin seems to be ready to break up the warning line of a smaller pitchfork.
The fact that price respects the Schiff pitchfork, not the original one and that there are 3 waves down WXY of a larger (W), not 5 waves - implies a somewhat light correction and up trend continuation at some point, not reversal. Earlier we bounced of off the pitchfork's median line (also H4 EMA200 and 61.8% retracement) and regained back the D1 EMA12 support and both EMA12,26 are sloping up which is good for the up trend and may be considered a buy signal, but there's still some EMAs and resistance on the way.
This is also typical for the price to go all the way to H4 EMA200 (which is also usually beyond D1 EMA26 of a higher tf) after a H4 EMA12,26 cross on the cur tf and bounce from there.
Now all eyes are at the next 61.8% retracement which is 12250, but we can go as high as 78.6 (12900) - 88.6% (13300) in wave (X) and then retrace more.
We have established a new range (green) with 11600 median line. It is important whether we are above/below that line and the top of the 2018 range at 11800.
We're currently at 38.2% retracement (11350), and we could still pull back to the next fib level 50% (10600) first to bounce from the median line of the large pitchfork before going to 12250.
3 Scenarios:
- ABCDE triangle, then break up and up trend continuation
- (WXY) down - further correction to the prev subwave (4) levels (7500)
- 12345 continuation of an up trend - wave (1) of 5 circle, or wave 1 of wave (3) (less likely)
normally we should expect wave 4 circle to retrace further down in (WXY) to the prev subwave (4) levels (7500) but in this extremely parabolic scenario it will be a short wave 4 correction.
Major support at 9000
If we fail to break 61.8% on the way up - this will imply a further correction down/possible reversal or at least a triangle, since all algos will be on a sell side.
On the other hand, breaking 61.8% will get us more buy side support on the next 50% retracement down.
Good Luck! Not a financial advice.
The fact that price respects the Schiff pitchfork, not the original one and that there are 3 waves down WXY of a larger (W), not 5 waves - implies a somewhat light correction and up trend continuation at some point, not reversal. Earlier we bounced of off the pitchfork's median line (also H4 EMA200 and 61.8% retracement) and regained back the D1 EMA12 support and both EMA12,26 are sloping up which is good for the up trend and may be considered a buy signal, but there's still some EMAs and resistance on the way.
This is also typical for the price to go all the way to H4 EMA200 (which is also usually beyond D1 EMA26 of a higher tf) after a H4 EMA12,26 cross on the cur tf and bounce from there.
Now all eyes are at the next 61.8% retracement which is 12250, but we can go as high as 78.6 (12900) - 88.6% (13300) in wave (X) and then retrace more.
We have established a new range (green) with 11600 median line. It is important whether we are above/below that line and the top of the 2018 range at 11800.
We're currently at 38.2% retracement (11350), and we could still pull back to the next fib level 50% (10600) first to bounce from the median line of the large pitchfork before going to 12250.
3 Scenarios:
- ABCDE triangle, then break up and up trend continuation
- (WXY) down - further correction to the prev subwave (4) levels (7500)
- 12345 continuation of an up trend - wave (1) of 5 circle, or wave 1 of wave (3) (less likely)
normally we should expect wave 4 circle to retrace further down in (WXY) to the prev subwave (4) levels (7500) but in this extremely parabolic scenario it will be a short wave 4 correction.
Major support at 9000
If we fail to break 61.8% on the way up - this will imply a further correction down/possible reversal or at least a triangle, since all algos will be on a sell side.
On the other hand, breaking 61.8% will get us more buy side support on the next 50% retracement down.
Good Luck! Not a financial advice.
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