user100000
Long

Cylce I vs Cycle III

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1046 5 17
If we compare the previous cycle degree wave I impulse wave to our current wave III             underway... It took 42 and 43 weeks from the low to reach a high (circle 1) in both cases and 10 weeks of correction (circle 2). Circle 3 should kick in any time now with a target of 2400 to 5800 (circle 3). April-May is where the market should crest

Note circle 1 could be a large expanding leading diagonal .
oaksacorn
a year ago
I could not agree more. The weekly count you have is spot on along with a decent looking cycle count. A trade down to 347 (21 weekly ma) is is till possible in this scenario but may hold right here. Since this is a 3 of larger 3, I think the dotted line to 4900 prevails.
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RyNinDaCleM
a year ago
What about the 2011, 31.9099 high (not on a stamp chart)? How does that play into your count? You don't account for anything in the green box here, why?
snapshot
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AriPole RyNinDaCleM
a year ago
It looks like you're both predicting Wave III (big 3) around the same time anyhow, even with the differing methodology. Either we're all getting rich this year or not. No need to split hairs.
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RyNinDaCleM AriPole
a year ago
No, they aren't the same thing... In my chart, the green count which has a complete impulse from the beginning of Bitcoin trading to the 1200 peak. If that is the case, then the corrective phase is not over yet. Alternatively, the red count has a not yet completed the larger impulse, where the 2yr bear market was 4 of a larger 3 of the larger cycle. In this case, we go up in a 5th wave to a target that is likely below 10k and imo, below 5k before seeing an even longer bear market than we have endured yet. Be careful what you wish for, because it's better (for the adoption) if Bitcoin would complete a corrective 2 (green), now, and get it over with, rather than the red count where many will buy yet another (marginally higher high) top and be ruined for far longer than the recent deflation.

See the red line that we are just passed? That is the minimum a wave-2 can be when correcting the entire bull market to 1200. Considering that the only possible count that has a complete structure since the ATH ended back around the 50% fibo time point, It wasn't long enough. Halving or not, it is better to just make a complete wave-2 now than not.

Let the down votes rain! I know you people don't like it, but the very fact that the bullishness snapped right back so easily says that wave-2 is not complete. A wave-1 should be full of uncertainty... Thoughts that "this is just another bear market rally!", not euphoria, as the 500 hit had.
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AriPole RyNinDaCleM
a year ago
If we're in a fifth wave (of Wave I) to $1800 - $4800, that's good enough for me.

If user100000 is right and we're going into a third wave (of Wave III) to $1800 - $4800, that's good enough for me.

If your green count is correct, then Wave II was flat, which means that Wave IV correction will be sharp. Which would make for a very nice multi-year bull run all the way to the promised land (end of Wave V).

All of these outcomes look good to me.
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