BTC vs USD - why I'm not buying (yet)

The above trend has been strong resistance since mid-August. Previous rejections resulted in a significant sell off.

How I'm playing it:

1) Waiting for confirmation. There'll always be opportunities. Don't FOMO, like so many are doing at this moment. If price action breaks above the resistance, terrific. Wait for the resistance trend line to be confirmed as support. Go long from confirmation.

2) If we see red candle tomorrow and/or the day after, then we're facing a potential large sell off to previous support.

Be safe - be patient!

Comment:

Terrific - price action breaks through. Now we need two things to happen:

1) The daily candle to close above the trend line.

2) Price action to test previous resistance as support (could be weeks!)

Comment:

$11063 - today only, this is the number to watch out for. A close above here is good. Support on resistance. A close below, first option (2) above becomes true.

Comment:

So we have a breakout, now we wait for confirmation of support. If $12k break, $14k should come easily enough trapping in a lot of bulls. You might as yourself, he's crazy waiting for confirmation, price now rallying.

There reason why:

There's been a rising wedge in the making for some months now, it'll be interesting to see what happens when tested following the breakout. Be extra careful. A rejection from here will send price action back to $6k without much effort. That is why I wait for confirmation.

Comment:

Circled in black on the 2-day chart below we can see previous RSI support is about to be tested as resistance. Be careful.

Comment:

At previous RSI support sellers stepped in and confirmed the trend in the above chart as resistance (circled in black).

Comment:

Regular bearish divergence is confirmed on the 8-hr chart below. Support almost a $1k drop away.

Comment:

The bulls somehow managed to push price action through the Gaussian strip. Should price action close today on top of the strip (current price levels), that'll be very bullish for the days ahead. I'll find out what happens when the morning comes!

Comment:

Looking good so far - hoping we see a run to $14k (the previously monthly all time high. We should see a test of the previous resistance at that point.

Comment:

What a frightening chart to consider a long position with.

Rising wedge confirmed, broken, and now currently testing resting.

Comment:

Now we get to see if support is held.

$11.8k is the first stop - a bounce from here would be a higher low = bullish pattern continues.

$11k the next - if it breaks, support failed and this was a giant fake out.