The only Chart you need to know when to buy and sell Bitcoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We are watching the 200 Daily moving average for it to turn upwards, with the 50 D moving average to also be above the 200 D MA. At that point we can begin looking for high probability trade setups.

For now, both the 50 and 200 are moving down, with the 50 below the 200, this is actually quite a bearish pattern .

Things look like they want to flatten out, and with Bitcoin stuck above 6k and below the trend line , sideways until a break.

Catching the break is not important. We need to identify high probability set ups. The break will simply help to get both the 50 and 200 D ma to be pulled higher.

I will only be watching the Daily chart for both long and short trade set ups.

What my goal is here is to share WHEN we go up, and WHEN to sell during the next bubble.

HINT: any price that is over 3.5 times the 200 D ma isn when to go to tether(Just compare to the past major bubbles. There has only been 2 major bubbles), but we're potentially 2-3 years before we get another bubble.

I am of the opinion any price under the 200 Dma is a good buy, but our ability to really lift off won't happen until the price gets above the 200 dma substantially and holds that higher price.

So a break above the 200 D ma is possible but low probability and then more so, its ability to continue once it breaks above is small.

When to begin making long trades?

When the 200 D ma is moving up and the 50 is above the 200.

With the way the 50 and 200 D ma are aligned right now, a test of 5k or even 4200 is possible. Both long and short trades are gambles here unless you are just accumulating and have long time preference for you purchases today.

Big spike imminent...

10/25/2018 BTC currently at $6405

200 DMA is moving much more horizontal rather than downward. This is suggesting the momentum shifted to the buy side over the past 200 days. We do not have a 'clear signal' of a trade.

However, when analyzing bitcoin historically, and time Bitcoin is trading UNDER the 200 DMA, it is a profitable buy.

That said, the slight, only slightly higher probability trade at this point is long. A spike to the 200 Daily moving average is growing everyday.

Comment: The pink, yellow, and green arrows in the 240m Chart are pointing out that the price has made a precision touch 3 times now ON TOP of the trend line. This is the reason why I feel a spike very likely.
Comment: 8200-9500 are first main targets.

If my crystal ball is true. The stock market is about to see a 20-40% dip. And Bitcoin will become front and center news again very soon. Prior to these 2 things happening, I expect bitcoin to finally break higher on volume, with a price surge likely to 9500 in 1 solid move.

I would argue the probability is now roughly over 65-70% to the bullish probability.

1 week ago, the bullish probability began to slight outwiegh the bearish outcomes, pushing to about 55% bullish probability.

With the week prior, it being about dead even maybe even bears having higher probability by a slight measure.

However, the probability of the bull set up we see is still generally weak, all bets should remain small because an unexpected move downward is still a major risk. Do NOT get wiped out!

Comment: The amount of wealth coming out of the stock market, WILL NEED a home because banks are not safe beyond FDIC limits, and even then the value of the currency behind it isnt promised. But were not going to be at that stage of the game this quickly. My point is, the money coming out of stocks, will likely find a home in crypto.

Then in 3-6 months it will become more apparent to the general public that money in the bank isnt very safe and then things will get interesting.
Comment: 1 month later.... Bitcoin ended up going the bear route which I pointed out using simple moving average analysis.

A note to myself...

Listen to what i actually write here.

As of now, at $3900, I think it might be time we retest the 50 day movinigaverage as the price moves back to mean. The probability of more downside in the near term is about 0 or less the 10-15%

The bottom is near, if not already in.

The pink dotted lines indicate past support should we break the current low price.
Comment: BTC high probability setup is to the upside. back into red zone, above acsending channel to possibly unchanged from a few weeks ago. Then pay attention to the media to really see if the bottom is in...
Comment: Quick update. The probability of a bear resuming is very high.

With having the price below the 50 MA Daily, and the 50 below the 200, and both trending DOWNWARDS..

Bets to the longside are off.

The time to get long is when the price is above the 50, and the 50 is above the 200, and and both the 50 and 200 are moving up! Tiill then expect down, sideways, or any spike to get aggressively sold off.
Comment: The trade to the long side ran its course and got to about 4400, but the downward momentum looks to be winning, which is no surprise looking at the 50 and 200 DMA.
Comment: Targets in 2000-2800 are within the markets reach now. Those low prices will be a short lived event.

Money is beginning to flow into bitcoin as if it were bowliing ball ball falliing straight in the middle of a trampoline in a downward motion, it will drop exponentially at the end and then capitulate higher. ;)
Comment: Test of 50 then possiibly 200 say moving average underway... Godmode is beginning too suggest we will get a reversal or pause in upward movement.

Fed just raised interest rates, dollar could get stronger. Bitcoin could reverse once it reaches 50 or 200 dma.
Comment: 200 DMA going to be tested. Inverted Head an shoulders forming.

Not sure yet where to after that, but 200 MA and 50 MA are still moving down strongly. The interesting key to this set up is at some point the price will need to break above at least in the short term if the 50 and then 200 ma begin to shift directions. So we will look to god mode on the daily for this information. Signals should line up with the touching of the 200 MA
2 things to look at.... 1, the 200MA on the weekly could be support. Both the 5o is moving down and back to median, and 200 are moving upward still suggesting bullish momentum on the weekly that never stopped. This would fit the narrative crypto is a "new supercycle in a long term commodity bull cycle" or something like that, that i read years ago and kept note of.

2 The dollar index DXY has a consistent inverse relationship. This could suggest continued weakness in crypto for a while yet to come, until the (if and when) fed reverses course and lowers interest rates again.

If BTC breaks higher, There is no specific price it will go to. I expect something along the lines of to the most recent resistance which is near 8200-8500. But if we broke to those levels, the 200 DMA would be below the brice and moving downward still which means we would likely fall from 8500 area to the 200 DMA, which right now is near, 7600.

So bitcoin will need to rise to 8500, but it will likely fall to 7600 and trade sideways while the 50 and 200 D ma slowly move higher... Eventually a test of 10 will happen, and around this time, is when the 200 DMA should begin to rise, and at this time is when you will see trading volumes rise and the price to get a new funk, or groove on with new volatility.

Even once the 200 DMA begins to rise, it will likely come back down and test the rising 200 DMA, this will be when you want to enter. When it dips below the rising 200dma.

And I will study other charts to determine when one could short. We will get a massive spike after the retest of the rising 200DMA and that spike will offer a lucrative short trade. And then from that point on, both the 50 and 200 DMA should be rising and we will likely enter a new period of rising crypto prices with high probability trade in abundance. But it might take us a while longer until we get there.

Hopefully this helps to explain what I am looking for before making any trades in the current low probability environment.

I do think Bitcoin wants to test the 200DMA which is near 7600. But, with the 50 below the 200 and both moving downward, a large move lower is just as probable still.
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