BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi Seildev here,

We have seen bitcoins prices pulling back from highs of 16642 usd to
currently 13749 usd. This is a very healthy pullback as we have seen
a parabolic movement upwards in the early part of Dececember.

Few things that we have learnt, that when RSI hits around 86~88, we can
expect a pullback. I have spotted 3 circles in green pointing to areas where
we can pick up next time when markets are rising parabolically to close out
positions above 82 RSI .

Another thing, that tomorrow we have the future market opening. There are really
two sides of the story with this. One is that we are going to see a bear market
as the future contracts for short will be open for BTC . What we have to realise
is that this is a futures market which doesn't have an impact on the purchase/value
of the coin itself. However we have to note the volumn of trades that may be less
as investors may look into futures market which are triple fold more secure than
what our current exchanges offers. Understanding that bitcoin can be put into hardware
wallet, we still have many amongst us that don't even know coins can be held in an
offline wallet.

Given the investors in the banking sectors that wanted to get invovled with bitcoins
however couldn't reason to do so now have an opportunity through the futures market.
Which makes us question, 'if' the old school minders who are more traditional in the
fx market or futures market see more value in securities and their funds being safer
then why woudln't they invest into the futures market? Money as to come from somewhere
and if they aren't investing in purchasing directly through crypto exchanges then this
money will be taken out from our market cap thus leading to less volume , thus leading to
potential de-value of BTC . Now I'm currently a holder of coins and am a strong believer
that crypto will be the future primary currency however I cannot guarantee or tell you
100% that Bitcoins or 'now' is the time where crypto/blockchain technology will shine.

I also find a lot of quotes coming through charts posted on tradingview regarding 'sell when
everyone is euphoric and greedy, buy when everyone is fearful'. There's always two sides
of the story and the most tricky part in analysis is ones interpretation. We could take
that quote and apply to where BTC chart is currently at and say 'We are in a bear market
and people are fearful' so should we then buy? Or do we classify this as an upward trend
still and look into selling?

I'm currently looking at holding few coins ( BTC one of them) for long term purposes. As I'm
not indulging myself in the futures market, any dips/pullbacks for me are opportunities to
increase my portfolio with BTC . I have bought around 3500, 7000, 11150 and 15500. Do I regret
purchasing around 15500 on the 7th/Dec? No. Why? Because I've learnt an extra indicator
that when RSI is above 86, there is more than 80% chance that there will be a pullback. I
myself didn't pay attention to it, more so coudln't control the emotions behind the parabolic
increase from 11794 to 16614 in a matter of 36 hours and bought BTC but have learnt next time
to not do this again.

I also think having futures market and more exchanges around the world accepting BTC as part
of their exchange is a positive news overall. I also believe some major brands will adopt BTC
like Amazon, Ebay , fast food chains in the next 12 ~ 18 months which will bring more value
(non speculative but an actual 'value') to BTC .

There is a strong confluence around 12068 ~ 12484 where we can see the following:

- 70 day EMA
- 61.8 % fib from swing high of 16642 and swing low of 9261.88
- 38.2% fib from swing high of 16642 and wing low of 5873.32

I suspect that the trend line since Nov 30th will be broken however recovered quite quickly
once we hit another lower lows to 12068 area and will see a bounce to 14330, down to 12484
area and then for xmas period look at next target between 18538 ~ 19579.

As always, trade with
Dec 17
Trade closed: target reached
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