I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “Scaling into Bitcoin under $4,000 with ~15% - 33% of your net worth could be the best decision you have ever made. And if it isn’t then the risk is worth the reward."
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: 4h bear channel | (Referring to Peter Brandt’s Last Day Rule) Watching for setup day to indicate that a bounce is coming - which would require a daily close > $4,112
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,500 | R: $3,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Almost triggered my alert at 36,000 but not quite. Confirms that there is still room for another leg down to the $2,700 - $3,100 area.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0961%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below after testing above. Now entire candle is below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bear and gaining momentum (coming down at a sharper angle)
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,650
Overall trend: Bearish af’
Volume: Seeing some very significant volume at this price level. Not nearly enough for a bottom but plenty for a bounce.
FIB’s: (Start at $1,000 and connect to ATH’) 0.886 = $3,164 | 0.786 = $5,805
Candlestick analysis: Last two daily’s were darth maul / long legged spinning tops. This is a good indication of a shakeout before a bounce.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily shows big resistance above $5,000
TD’ Sequential: Two days ago we got a red 9 and that failed to provide a bounce. Now we are on a red 2 that is threatening to fall below red 1.
Visible Range: Broke down the bottom of the high volume node (HVN) at $3,877. Refilling the gap below is to be expected. Next HVN = $3,077
Price action: 24h: -6.25%
Bollinger Bands: Bulge with price sticking to the bottom
Trendline: 4h bear trend waiting at $3,990 - $4,100 | Bottom of the channel held as support at $3,500
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend)
Parabolic SAR: At $4,353 (right in line with trendline)
RSI: Finally starting to see a small bull div’
Stochastic: “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!”
Last Day Rule: Watching for close above $4,112 for setup day.
Summary: There are a number of indicators showing a bounce on the horizon. Funding rates are high for shorts, volume is much > average at this price level, the prior two daily candles closed long legged spinning tops (aka darth maul candles). The Stochastic and RSI also indicate oversold conditions and the TD’ Sequential recently had a perfected red 9.
However i still think that we are going to see one more leg down before getting a bounce and potentially seeing a bottom. We broke down the high volume node on the VRVP and there is a gap below that needs to be filled.
The red 9 failed to provide a bounce (so far) and now we are on a red 2 that would fall below a red 1 at $3,522. The stochastic is stuck at the bottom. The price is still sticking to the bottom Bollinger Band.
Furthermore it would give us a chance for proper capitulation. People are getting nervous now, but they are not throwing in the towel. If we selloff to $2,700 - $3,000 over the next day or two and then get a high volume hammer / dragonfly then I will be ready to call a bottom.
Until then I am looking to short alts vs BTC and I am preparing to buy back spot BTC (time horizon is > 2 years). Orders remain set at $3,000.1 and $2,718.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “Scaling into Bitcoin under $4,000 with ~15% - 33% of your net worth could be the best decision you have ever made. And if it isn’t then the risk is worth the reward."
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: 4h bear channel | (Referring to Peter Brandt’s Last Day Rule) Watching for setup day to indicate that a bounce is coming - which would require a daily close > $4,112
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,500 | R: $3,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Almost triggered my alert at 36,000 but not quite. Confirms that there is still room for another leg down to the $2,700 - $3,100 area.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0961%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below after testing above. Now entire candle is below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bear and gaining momentum (coming down at a sharper angle)
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,650
Overall trend: Bearish af’
Volume: Seeing some very significant volume at this price level. Not nearly enough for a bottom but plenty for a bounce.
FIB’s: (Start at $1,000 and connect to ATH’) 0.886 = $3,164 | 0.786 = $5,805
Candlestick analysis: Last two daily’s were darth maul / long legged spinning tops. This is a good indication of a shakeout before a bounce.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily shows big resistance above $5,000
TD’ Sequential: Two days ago we got a red 9 and that failed to provide a bounce. Now we are on a red 2 that is threatening to fall below red 1.
Visible Range: Broke down the bottom of the high volume node (HVN) at $3,877. Refilling the gap below is to be expected. Next HVN = $3,077
Price action: 24h: -6.25%
Bollinger Bands: Bulge with price sticking to the bottom
Trendline: 4h bear trend waiting at $3,990 - $4,100 | Bottom of the channel held as support at $3,500
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend)
Parabolic SAR: At $4,353 (right in line with trendline)
RSI: Finally starting to see a small bull div’
Stochastic: “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!”
Last Day Rule: Watching for close above $4,112 for setup day.
Summary: There are a number of indicators showing a bounce on the horizon. Funding rates are high for shorts, volume is much > average at this price level, the prior two daily candles closed long legged spinning tops (aka darth maul candles). The Stochastic and RSI also indicate oversold conditions and the TD’ Sequential recently had a perfected red 9.
However i still think that we are going to see one more leg down before getting a bounce and potentially seeing a bottom. We broke down the high volume node on the VRVP and there is a gap below that needs to be filled.
The red 9 failed to provide a bounce (so far) and now we are on a red 2 that would fall below a red 1 at $3,522. The stochastic is stuck at the bottom. The price is still sticking to the bottom Bollinger Band.
Furthermore it would give us a chance for proper capitulation. People are getting nervous now, but they are not throwing in the towel. If we selloff to $2,700 - $3,000 over the next day or two and then get a high volume hammer / dragonfly then I will be ready to call a bottom.
Until then I am looking to short alts vs BTC and I am preparing to buy back spot BTC (time horizon is > 2 years). Orders remain set at $3,000.1 and $2,718.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/