There have been a few murmurs that there is a slight chance for approval given that Hester Pierce, one of the SEC commissioners and also dubbed the "cryptomum", will be giving a keynote speech in New York, coinciding with the VanEck's ETF's decision deadline. However, I personally feel this is nothing more than just a coincidence and it is likely that SEC will delay the VanEck's to August.
The Bitwise proposal was delayed recently for reasons such as bitcoin being susceptible to market manipulation, which applies to the VanEck's as well.
Hence, I see no reason for any special approval to be granted to the VanEck's .
So what can we expect from now till the decision dateline?
Given the slip a few hours earlier to around the 7600 support, i am expecting a bounce up till 8400 (max 8500) before a reversal after the delayed decision by the SEC.
As i mentioned in my previous idea , the 8500 resistance is a super strong resistance. I am not expecting any break in the near term unless fundamental news such as SEC's approval surfaces. If not i just do not see any stimulus for a break above the 8500 resistance.
During the previous VanEck's decision on 29 March, which was delayed, there was no market reaction upon the release. Bitcoin was trading around the 4000 range at the point of time, before seeing a rally to 5000 a few days later.
Should we expect any reaction this time round? I personally feel there should be no reaction as well given how the recent Binance's hack did not see a major market movement towards the downside.
However, my gut feeling is telling me that big players may use this as an opportunity to make a profit. The previous decision came when prices were at the low at 4k, thus it is hard for the prices to go down any further. However this time round, bitcoin is at a high price around 8000 and it is an extremely good profit taking opportunity compared to the previous one. Just imagine the scenario where SEC has delayed the decision. If the big players decide to trigger a huge sell off upon the release, the retail investors may have the impression that bitcoin will go down lower due to the delay and will sell off their bitcoin as well. This is unlike the Binance's hack where it was unexpected, hence harder to make a colluded decision. This SEC's decision deadline is a good and timed opportunity for the big players to take profit and drive prices lower. This is just a scenario that i foresee may happen and everything i have said are not financial advice, just my two cents on how i feel the market may potentially move. Do make your own judgement and invest at your own risk.
If the SEC does delay the VanEck's decision, the next deadline is likely to be 19 August 2019. If it is delayed again, the final decision deadline will be on 18 October 2019, where a final decision must be made to reject or approve the .
I have identified the levels to watch out for below using the 1 hr chart:
7600 support: horizontal overlap support
7200 support: 61.8% , 61.8%
6500 support: horizontal swing low support, 100%
5800 support: horizontal overlap support, 50%
5000 support: horizontal swing low support, 61.8% , 61.8% (strong support)
8400 resistance: horizontal swing high resistance
8500 resistance: horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2%, 61.8%, 78.6% (strong resistance)
10000 resistance: horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% (strong resistance)
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Thank you and have a lovely start to the week :D