I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: Watching for bounce to $6,600. Outlined $6,400 and $6,150 as key areas of support / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,493 | S: $6,395
BTCUSDSHORTS: Wicked off bottom of triangle and bouncing
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price above MA = bullish
Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Continues to resist under 4 week and 32 day with bearish cross.
Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Price below 32 week MA and it’s angling down = very bearish | Price < 50 < 128 = very bearish
Overall trend: If price cannot establish medium term bull trend then expect short term to turn back bearish as well. When all of the trends are in alignment it is time to trade.
Volume: Yesterday’s bar sure disappointed, after starting out with strong volume it ended under MA.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Daily bearish harami will confirm under $6,380. Yesterday was a hanging man and it will confirm under $6,434
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows strong support at $6,425
TD’ Sequential: Weekly R2 = R1 | Daily: G3 = G2 | 3h: R8
Visible Range: Point of control over last year = $6,760 | Highest volume node = $6,478 - $7,138
Price action: 24h: + / - 0 | 2w: -2.11% | 1m: -0.86%
Bollinger Bands: Yesterday’s candle closed below MA and today’s candle is resisting it | Weekly wicked off the MA.
Trendline: Top of triangle waiting around $6,700
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Appears to be turning over after resisting under 50 on daily
Stoch: Doesn’t look like it will create another lower high like I thought. %K just created higher high, will it still be that way when this candle closes?
Summary: I have updated the list above and will continue to do so as I narrow in on what indicators I like the most. After attending a 4 hour webinar with Tyler Jenks about Consensio I have experimented with different moving averages and more specific ways to define the trend.
The biggest change to my list was the addition of short, medium and long term trends. I am a swing trader and like to hold onto my positions for 1-3 months. Therefore, how I define each trend will be different from most everyone else. If you don’t have a very clear idea of your time horizon and how you define trends (even is markets as choppy as this) then you should give it some thought very soon.
The best resource that I have found for defining trends is Tyler Jenks Consensio. I highly recommend following him on Twitter and watching “Deep Dive Into Consensio” on Youtube. If you get the chance to attend one of his webinars I could not recommend it highly enough.
I define the short term trend as: Price > 4 day MA = Bull | Price < 4 MA = Bear
I define the medium term trend as: Same as above with 4 week MA & 2 day MA in relation to 32 day MA.
I define the long term trend as: Angle of 32 week MA. If angling down then bearish. If angling up then bullish. If flat then chop with trend expected to start soon. This is my #1 indicator as it relates to identifying a trend.
We are currently testing the medium term bear trend as the price tries to break above the 4 week MA and the 2 day MA tries to cross the 32 day. If we fail to close above the 32 day MA before the end of the week then I would expect the short term trend to turn bearish. That would give us bear trends for short, medium and long term. When the the trends are all in agreeance then it is time to trade!
If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man. If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369. ETH’ is forming the same pattern but I chose BTC’ because it offered lower risk based on setting a stop above the hanging man. If you trade on a USDT’ exchange then those prices need to be adjusted accordingly.
I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart. It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: Watching for bounce to $6,600. Outlined $6,400 and $6,150 as key areas of support / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,493 | S: $6,395
BTCUSDSHORTS: Wicked off bottom of triangle and bouncing
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price above MA = bullish
Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Continues to resist under 4 week and 32 day with bearish cross.
Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Price below 32 week MA and it’s angling down = very bearish | Price < 50 < 128 = very bearish
Overall trend: If price cannot establish medium term bull trend then expect short term to turn back bearish as well. When all of the trends are in alignment it is time to trade.
Volume: Yesterday’s bar sure disappointed, after starting out with strong volume it ended under MA.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Daily bearish harami will confirm under $6,380. Yesterday was a hanging man and it will confirm under $6,434
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows strong support at $6,425
TD’ Sequential: Weekly R2 = R1 | Daily: G3 = G2 | 3h: R8
Visible Range: Point of control over last year = $6,760 | Highest volume node = $6,478 - $7,138
Price action: 24h: + / - 0 | 2w: -2.11% | 1m: -0.86%
Bollinger Bands: Yesterday’s candle closed below MA and today’s candle is resisting it | Weekly wicked off the MA.
Trendline: Top of triangle waiting around $6,700
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Appears to be turning over after resisting under 50 on daily
Stoch: Doesn’t look like it will create another lower high like I thought. %K just created higher high, will it still be that way when this candle closes?
Summary: I have updated the list above and will continue to do so as I narrow in on what indicators I like the most. After attending a 4 hour webinar with Tyler Jenks about Consensio I have experimented with different moving averages and more specific ways to define the trend.
The biggest change to my list was the addition of short, medium and long term trends. I am a swing trader and like to hold onto my positions for 1-3 months. Therefore, how I define each trend will be different from most everyone else. If you don’t have a very clear idea of your time horizon and how you define trends (even is markets as choppy as this) then you should give it some thought very soon.
The best resource that I have found for defining trends is Tyler Jenks Consensio. I highly recommend following him on Twitter and watching “Deep Dive Into Consensio” on Youtube. If you get the chance to attend one of his webinars I could not recommend it highly enough.
I define the short term trend as: Price > 4 day MA = Bull | Price < 4 MA = Bear
I define the medium term trend as: Same as above with 4 week MA & 2 day MA in relation to 32 day MA.
I define the long term trend as: Angle of 32 week MA. If angling down then bearish. If angling up then bullish. If flat then chop with trend expected to start soon. This is my #1 indicator as it relates to identifying a trend.
We are currently testing the medium term bear trend as the price tries to break above the 4 week MA and the 2 day MA tries to cross the 32 day. If we fail to close above the 32 day MA before the end of the week then I would expect the short term trend to turn bearish. That would give us bear trends for short, medium and long term. When the the trends are all in agreeance then it is time to trade!
If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man. If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369. ETH’ is forming the same pattern but I chose BTC’ because it offered lower risk based on setting a stop above the hanging man. If you trade on a USDT’ exchange then those prices need to be adjusted accordingly.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/