I wish more traders used fundamentals. Anyways; let's think without brainwash and pure logic: What reasoning in the market would Bitcoin need to stay above $6,000? Because of some line on a chart?
Let's reverse to 2014 which is a "bubble crash"; has anyone noticed that they too were trending along a "major trend line" (the red line I drew) and then when they broke down below; guess what? The final capitulation stage we were looking for happens.
Same thing here. Too much emphasis is being put on this "support" area of $5800. The thing I see a lot of traders forget is: "What happens if we break below that major trend line?".
We bounce from $5100? We bounce from $5800? I doubt it. Sure we might have a relief bounce, but from a big picture standpoint; we just clearly broke below something major.
So let's discuss some Black Swans to lead up to an event like this:
1. MT GOX. As mentioned in my previous Idea posted September 9th; I mentioned the possibility of MT GOX as they have a "hearing" coming up on the 18th. I am not re-typing everything so I'll paste some notes from a comment I made on there here:
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@majic92 @crow1980 meh... I'll give up the cheese. Since this isn't getting many views; the few that may stumble upon it will find gold haha.
Anyways; so... I am thinking Mt. Gox. They have a "hearing" where they will be releasing some more info about their current "rehabilitation process" to the 24,000 people they owe money and BTC to. It's a murky and ugly situation and looking from the various communities like Reddit channels where these people are; it looks like 99% of them are all utterly confused about what they are owed back, how, and when.
Supposedly; the courts "paused" Mt. Gox selling of their remaining 160,000 Bitcoins few months ago and allowed them to enter a "rehab process" where they can stop selling and re-pay back in amounts of Bitcoin instead of fiat. However; that's really cloudy and mixing fiat and Bitcoin as refunds sounds like a disaster. Not only in execution but paper trails (which courts live and die by) is at best par if they go this mixed refund route.
I may be completely wrong about this Black Swan event, but it does hold some weight as at any moment honestly; things can switch up AND judging from past Mt. Gox liquidation practices; they aren't afraid to sell of coins in short time frames.
Other side is: Let's say that they do return in mixes of fiat and BTC by early next year. 160,000 Bitcoin was a Guaranteed hold until then. After they are in these 24,000 people's hands; there is only one way things can go since selling is now an option: selling, more supply, prices down.
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2. ETF doesn't get approval. Likely a dump, but this current price action and floor wasn't built upon an ETF speculation. The traders holding from this speculation will only bring us down to the $5k range possibly. In my opinion; it's not the Black Swan we are looking for.
3. Tether blow up from major panic sell off from sub-$5,000 to sub-$4,000?
4. Just panic in general from a big major sell off when $5k doesn't hold.
Anyways; cheers. I think at this point; once you do a good fundamental analysis of the Bitcoin and crypto market.. The angle of thought should be "What could be the next Black Swan?" and then working back from there back to looking at a chart on a computer screen.
Let's reverse to 2014 which is a "bubble crash"; has anyone noticed that they too were trending along a "major trend line" (the red line I drew) and then when they broke down below; guess what? The final capitulation stage we were looking for happens.
Same thing here. Too much emphasis is being put on this "support" area of $5800. The thing I see a lot of traders forget is: "What happens if we break below that major trend line?".
We bounce from $5100? We bounce from $5800? I doubt it. Sure we might have a relief bounce, but from a big picture standpoint; we just clearly broke below something major.
So let's discuss some Black Swans to lead up to an event like this:
1. MT GOX. As mentioned in my previous Idea posted September 9th; I mentioned the possibility of MT GOX as they have a "hearing" coming up on the 18th. I am not re-typing everything so I'll paste some notes from a comment I made on there here:
- - - - - - - - - - - -
@majic92 @crow1980 meh... I'll give up the cheese. Since this isn't getting many views; the few that may stumble upon it will find gold haha.
Anyways; so... I am thinking Mt. Gox. They have a "hearing" where they will be releasing some more info about their current "rehabilitation process" to the 24,000 people they owe money and BTC to. It's a murky and ugly situation and looking from the various communities like Reddit channels where these people are; it looks like 99% of them are all utterly confused about what they are owed back, how, and when.
Supposedly; the courts "paused" Mt. Gox selling of their remaining 160,000 Bitcoins few months ago and allowed them to enter a "rehab process" where they can stop selling and re-pay back in amounts of Bitcoin instead of fiat. However; that's really cloudy and mixing fiat and Bitcoin as refunds sounds like a disaster. Not only in execution but paper trails (which courts live and die by) is at best par if they go this mixed refund route.
I may be completely wrong about this Black Swan event, but it does hold some weight as at any moment honestly; things can switch up AND judging from past Mt. Gox liquidation practices; they aren't afraid to sell of coins in short time frames.
Other side is: Let's say that they do return in mixes of fiat and BTC by early next year. 160,000 Bitcoin was a Guaranteed hold until then. After they are in these 24,000 people's hands; there is only one way things can go since selling is now an option: selling, more supply, prices down.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
2. ETF doesn't get approval. Likely a dump, but this current price action and floor wasn't built upon an ETF speculation. The traders holding from this speculation will only bring us down to the $5k range possibly. In my opinion; it's not the Black Swan we are looking for.
3. Tether blow up from major panic sell off from sub-$5,000 to sub-$4,000?
4. Just panic in general from a big major sell off when $5k doesn't hold.
Anyways; cheers. I think at this point; once you do a good fundamental analysis of the Bitcoin and crypto market.. The angle of thought should be "What could be the next Black Swan?" and then working back from there back to looking at a chart on a computer screen.