vlad.adrian
Short

Bitcoin - Price and Volume call for a further fall

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1222 38 26
Bitcoin has been going down for a long time and people are still talking about what a marvelous invention bitcoin is. I am no expert in the fundamentals of bitcoin , but I know that this is a clear downtrend, and one should look for opportunities to sell. Whenever bitcoin goes back to the wave, it is time to sell. Look at overbouught conditions on the Force Index , and how accurate selling signals they proved to be.

Besides the downtrend, it seems that the relationship between price and volume works very well here, and one can use this information to predict key areas on the chart. I can tell you that the next key interest area is the 150$, where the lows of the extreme range days are.

By looking strictly at the price action, it is pretty obvious to me that after periods of consolidation, bitcoin starts moving.

I am not a bitcoin trader, I have never traded it. However, if I had to trade it, I would go short and I would be very comfortable with my position.
You don't trade BTC, you don't understand the fundamentals of BTC, but you have an opinion on its direction based on the chart you made? Thanks for your expert opinion then on its future!
-8 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO rivet.popper
Typical comment from a beginner that does not understand the difference between a fundamentalist and a technician. Please keep immature comments for yourself
+3 Reply
aziz92 vlad.adrian
Just ignore him vlad. Typical BTC "trader" shill bag holding coins from $800.
+4 Reply
rivet.popper vlad.adrian
Yes comments that show your ignorance and misunderstanding of BTC and its price movements are "immature". No one can touch your fantastic insights into the future of bitcoin.
-6 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO rivet.popper
I was never interested in understanding Bitcoin, and I don't need to. I don't want to get into an useless argument with you, so please stop.
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rivet.popper vlad.adrian
"I was never interested in understanding Bitcoin".

Well that's all your readers need to know then. Move along everyone.
-6 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO rivet.popper
If a reader wants to know about my charting expertise, all they have to do is look at my published charts. Please stop commenting.
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rivet.popper vlad.adrian
Don't publish charts if you don't like negative comments from readers. For someone with the nerve to predict bitcoin's future, you should at least know what happens when you use the Innernetz.
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buyingtime7 rivet.popper
I trade BTC and understand the fundamentals of BTC. The author is using his own technical analysis of the chart as any trader should and has merit when used on any stocks chart, regardless of fundamentals. Furthermore, Elliott Wave Theory (which the author does not use on this chart), is used by many, many professional traders and has proved much merit and regards "fundamentals" as inconsequential.

Question: How much of the performance/rise of the S&P 500 these last 5-6 years could be construed as a result of "fundamentals"?

Answer: None. Despite the pumping from CNBC, the government and main stream media's claims of a "recovery", there is little factual evidence to support it.

Just sayin'.
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HolgerFertig rivet.popper
I am involved in Bitcoin since 2011 and do trade Bitcoin, hence I do know the fundamentals. The last 15 month have been very profitable for me and I have to agree on this chart. The fundamentals look very bad with at least two more upcoming auctions and 200.000 MtGox coins to be liquidated once they are distributed to creditors. In addition merchant adoption is only happening through Bitpay which dumps the coins immediately on the market => more selling pressure.
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Recent volume on Bitstamp is also lower than in past months, because the exchange got recently hacked and many traders left Bitstamp. For a more accurate volume analysis I recommend to analyze either Bitfinex, which is a leading BTC/USD exchange by volume or to look at Chinese exchanges which offer trading with 0% fees and thereby having much more volume than even Bitfinex.

Chinese exchanges to look at are BTC China, OKCoin and Huobi. With Tradingview you can even look at an volume average of all three by analyzing this:

(BTCCHINA:BTCCNY+HUOBI:BTCCNY+OKCOIN:BTCCNY)/3

Here is the result of the above price volume average:
snapshot
+3 Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
The problem with volume analysis is that the volume follows the price action and not the other way. Volume is a lagging indicator which shows extreme readings after the price has set in stone or broken certain key levels. The more the price moves away from those key levels the higher the volume gets initially. Therefore I prefer to analyze spotting the key levels to anticipate if volume will arrive soon.

If volume analysis works for you, that is great. I have determined it to be too unreliable and lagging and I rather focus on price alone to be ahead what could happen instead of being behind what already happened (volume spikes).
+3 Reply
I don't agree with that, volume comes with price movements, because volume is what moves price. Volume has never been a reason for taking a trade, but it is one indicator that I use and that has been working great.
+2 Reply
ChartArt vlad.adrian
Here is a great text book like example from this hour. I just watched live the 1-minute chart and was already in a long position, but this is where I would have bought and then comes the lagging volume AFTER the price had changed the trend. No better example than this demonstrating that first comes the price action and then follows the volume far behind the change of the price trend:

snapshot
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ChartArt ChartArt
Update 1. Volume shows someone sells at the bottom:

snapshot
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ChartArt ChartArt
.... actually I would have even bought here during the end of the dip on the last bar, because this is a common Bitcoin pattern which appears each day, but I was not fast enough to draw another blue arrow before the next 1-minute spike appeared

snapshot
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ChartArt ChartArt
Update 2: No volume, but the price goes up again even without any volume

snapshot
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I understand what you mean, but that is not the way I use volume. Volume is usually misunderstood.
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ChartArt vlad.adrian
Ok, good. Maybe I falsely assume that most people think it is time to buy when there is large buy volume.
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Thank you! As you can see, the volume is very similar. I am not interested in the volume per say, I am interested in comparing volume bars.
+1 Reply
I called for the Bitcoin price to drop way before it was popular to do so. I do think it is possible it might go up a little from here. If price can stay above 9-day EMA and 14-day SMA can stay above 21-day SMA then a move might be able to be sustained for a bit.

I think what you are expressing about the technology of Bitcoin versus the price is a common misconception. Usually I have seen it expressed by people who were sure the price was going higher. Bitcoin is a technology - much like a hard drive, computer chip, automobile, etc. The prices on all of these things has fallen over time. Do you think a car is less brilliant an invention as it becomes more affordable. A terabyte of hard drive spaced used to cost over $1,000,000 and now you can buy a terabyte hard drive for close to $50.00. Does that make the hard drive any less useful?

The technology of Bitcoin as ledger, quick and inexpensive means to move money, and programmable money is not less valuable to society just because the Bitcoin price dropped.

If you look back at speculative bubbles you will see that money pours into innovations such as the locomotive, automobile, etc. Vast fortunes were made and lost in those technologies. It is the speculation that funds the innovation and makes it possible for some of the companies and inventors to succeed while most will fail.

Much of the future value of Bitcoin will be in innovations that involve the protocol rather than speculation about the price of Bitcoin itself. I do believe, over time, as Bitcoin finishes the bottoming prices, that there will be a good opportunity to speculate and make a nice profit - not necessarily the kind of profit one would have made had they bought closer to the beginning, but still a good profit. However, one shouldn't confuse the utility of the Bitcoin protocol with the cost of Bitcoin on an exchange. They are not the same thing.
+2 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO TerryKinder
I did not argue that Bitcoin is not a good invention. I said all I know is that this is a downtrend. That's all the information I need in order to give an opinion on it.
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TerryKinder PRO vlad.adrian
You said, "Bitcoin has been going down for a long time and people are still talking about what a marvelous invention bitcoin is." I said I had been saying the Bitcoin price would go down before it was popular to say so. The only information I need to know what price will do. Pure price. No volume. Just price and the patterns of price on a chart.

I didn't say you did or did not say Bitcoin was a good invention. I did say that a common mistake people make is assuming that the utility of the Bitcoin protocol is directly related to price - it is not. It's no more related to price than other technologies.
+3 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO TerryKinder
Yes, agreed, good point. That is a major misconception.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO TerryKinder
1000% agreed Terry...that's the bottomline, can btc function as a means of money transfers without at any price? Will the miners be willing to keep mining to sustain the blockchain at low prices? How low is that low?
What will have to happen in order for it to be sustainable?
+1 Reply
Hi Vlad, your red dotted triangle screams to me,'pennant off of a decisive up trend'...I would expect this pattern to break upwards. Perfect in this case as it would complete wave 2 of a larger upward impulse off of the 156 bottom.
You don't see this as a valid pennant?
Thanks,
John
+1 Reply
buyingtime7 johnrfraser
Needs to turn up today or it will lose steam...
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buyingtime7 buyingtime7
<a href="http://imgur.com/OrUgUIT"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/OrUgUIT.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>
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BTC $495 soon. Then next stop $730.
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IncreaseMyT IncreaseMyT
1 week macd should cross, and when it does we should move up fast

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd
+1 Reply
Interesting. This could be the outcome on one of my charts posted today. Cool.
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It's a very tradable chart showing break out opportunity either way. I can't see why this got so political. It's not like Tim West et all charting doodles of a global meltdown worse than the Dutch tulip collapse, 1929 & 2008 combined... Just to prove they still don't live with their mother :P Will people go homeless and hungry if crypto's take a beating?
I dunno. Some headshops might go bust.
Can I have -5 for that mod so I beat rivet.popper? I haven't had a good minus number for ages :)
-3 Reply
Stingy bastard! Gimmie -5 at least. Go on... You know you want to!
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sry , there is nothing more I can do for you
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HexVex HexVex
-13 would be better. It's my lucky number :)
-1 Reply
If my comments are gonna be vanished don't be sloppy. Do them all. Leaving a few out of context sprinkles in the hope I'm seen as a lunatic doesn't make Tim West et all look better.
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it's going upward. Now what is your opinion, adrian?
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IncreaseMyT JimanKim
pretty funny looking at these comments in hindsight xD

"Typical comment from a beginner that does not understand the difference between a fundamentalist and a technician. Please keep immature comments for yourself"
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