vlad.adrian

PRO
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Joined Romania
Markets Allocation
39 % stocks 38 % forex 10 % commodities 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 2% | 12 GBPUSD 2% | 10 AUDUSD 2% | 10 AUDNZD 2% | 10
vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Prepared to go higher
235 0 8
EURUSD, D Long
EURUSD - Prepared to go higher

After breaking major resistance at 1.15, the Euro grinded lower to test that wide support area. Last week we had a clear rejection off it, and at the same time rejection off the 34 day EMA Wave. This is the futures chart I am using for the weekly, that shows reliable volume bars. Look at the condition of the Force Index, it is out of its channel, oversold in an ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO AA, W, Long ,
AA: Alcoa - a clear buy
84 0 10
AA, W Long
Alcoa - a clear buy

After breaking the major resistance area around 40$, Alcoa viciously came back down for a test. I would buy against this major support, given the bullish hammers and the oversold Force Index. Soft stop below resistance, around 36$. Target at 60$.

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURAUD, D, Long ,
EURAUD: EURAUD - Anticipating a swing
149 0 11
EURAUD, D Long
EURAUD - Anticipating a swing

The weekly chart stands at value, with a consolidation pattern that is getting tighter and tighter. The daily chart shows a failing H&S pattern with a perfect double bottom at the right shoulder. Note that the impulse is still red, as soon as it turns blue, it is time to add. The 4H chart is where the anticipation happens. After a smaller double bottom on even ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURCAD, D, Long ,
EURCAD: EURCAD - Sentiment and technicals point to a bounce
80 0 10
EURCAD, D Long
EURCAD - Sentiment and technicals point to a bounce

This is not the best looking chart, however, what attracted me to this trade is the BoC meeting on Wednesday, when a rate hike is widely expected. This is the time to put on a trade, when the risk reward is theoretically in your favor. The market fully priced in a rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% from Poloz and co., and IMO the only danger to this trade is a very ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURGBP, D, Short ,
EURGBP: EURGBP - Topping out
120 0 8
EURGBP, D Short
EURGBP - Topping out

The weekly chart shows a H&S pattern , and right now we stand, for the second time, at the right shoulder. Although the weekly chart doesn't scream sell, if you look at the daily chart, it offers an excellent opportunity to put on a bet. The daily chart shows a double top, with a false breakout, after a buying climax. Note also the bearish divergence on the ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO ILMN, D, Long ,
ILMN:  Illumina Corp - Further upside possible
49 0 2
ILMN, D Long
Illumina Corp - Further upside possible

Illumina had a slight correction recently, and is now ready to resume the uptrend. The weekly chart is at value, after failing to break the shoulder line resistance, while the volatility and volume decreased significantly if you analyze the Force Index. This leads me to believe that this was a correction, and not a start of a more important bearish move. The ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURTRY, D, Long ,
EURTRY: EURTRY - Possible start of a serious correction
132 3 6
EURTRY, D Long
EURTRY - Possible start of a serious correction

The Turkish Lira has been so beaten up these last few years, it's pretty hard to think about going long. However, looking back, I can spot similar behavior after parabolic moves (labeled on the weekly chart). Note that at the moment the weekly chart is still bullish, so this is an anticipation trade. Going on to the daily chart, a double top is taking shape at ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURZAR, W, Short ,
EURZAR: EURZAR - A perfect setup
81 0 7
EURZAR, W Short
EURZAR - A perfect setup

A setup can't get much better than this for the system I am using; both time frames align perfectly to create a low risk high probability trade. On the weekly chart, a return to the wave after a long period of buying the Rand also marks a test of the broken H&S neckline. This is all you need to go look for a trade on the daily chart. Note that the impulse is ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NZDUSD, 240, Long ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD - At crossroads
62 0 7
NZDUSD, 240 Long
NZDUSD - At crossroads

The New Zealand dollar stands at a very interesting level, and it looks to me like it is rejecting it. Sometimes, an instrument finds itself at a point where it's easy to make a bet, if it goes below you short, if it stays above you go long. The weekly chart shows a possible double bottom (impulse still red, plus this week's candle is all but encouraging) with a ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO VIX, M, Long ,
VIX: VIX - Enough complacency, time to buy volatility
138 4 7
VIX, M Long
VIX - Enough complacency, time to buy volatility

The VIX has been so low only 3 times in the last 15 years, this is the fourth period. That sounds like a nice bet to me! There isn't so much to say about the chart, when the VIX looks like it's bottoming there are only two choices : buy VIX or short stocks. Considering the amazing bull rally we are in right now, I do not want to short stocks, even if they are ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO FRA40, W, Short ,
FRA40: French stocks - short the irrationality
109 7 8
FRA40, W Short
French stocks - short the irrationality

The French election news have been in the spotlight for some time now. Last Sunday, LePen lost the first round, and many investors decided that the French stock market is the place to be. Or is it? Marine LePen never had the lead in the opinion polls for the second round, and the difference she has to surmount in order to beat Macron is huge, 20%. Everyone keeps ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO CC1!, W, Long ,
CC1!: Cocoa - Bearish trend, bullish signals
127 5 11
CC1!, W Long
Cocoa - Bearish trend, bullish signals

Cocoa has been trending down for about a year after a H&S/Double top/failed Cup and handle, whatever you want to call that topping pattern. Price currently stands at a massive support area, the neckline of a 10 year old H&S. The weekly indicators are starting to show bullish divergences. Although not there yet, as the impulse is still red, there will be strong ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Everyone still bearish??
302 2 10
EURUSD, D Long
EURUSD - Everyone still bearish??

I believe being a contrarian just for the sake of it is a fool's game. However, there are certain circumstances, when a contrarian view is warranted. I believe the dollar rally to be one of these special circumstances, I explained my reasons in my previous charts. First of all, I am not sure the dollar rally ended. As I am as sure as I can be from a trading ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NG1!, W, Long ,
NG1!: Natural Gas - Long from neckline
153 0 11
NG1!, W Long
Natural Gas - Long from neckline

Natural gas is a very volatile commodity, with wild swings from time to time. However, lately, the patterns have been obvious. We had a long term downtrend that followed the wave on the way down with precision, a double bottom reversed the trend, then a wider inverted H&S pattern emerged, and now NG is at the h&s neckline which coincides with value. On the daily ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO USOIL, W, Long ,
USOIL: OIL - Targeting 62$-70$
146 0 7
USOIL, W Long
OIL - Targeting 62$-70$

The measurement of the inverted h&s gives a target of 78$; the first bigger resistance level is 62$; I would say that 70$ is a reasonable target. I don't have a specific level in my mind, I am just bullish on oil, which just keeps going higher and higher, helping the inflation outlook in Europe along the way. Soft stop around 50$ ( I would need to see a serious ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO SPY, D,
SPY: Stock market - Christmas study
180 4 11
SPY, D
Stock market - Christmas study

The way this study was conducted : I have labeled the 23rd of each year, the day before Christmas Eve. In some cases, the labeled day differs because the 23rd was a weekend day. I have measured the gain from the swing low before the 23rd, to the close on the 23rd. On average the swing low is on 17-18 December. The results are: 23 Christmas holidays analysed 1 ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO ILMN, D, Long ,
ILMN: Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shoulders
73 0 7
ILMN, D Long
Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shoulders

Previous chart is linked below. On the weekly chart, there is a massive head and shoulders pattern which just keeps failing to break below the neckline. This was the 3rd attempt at a break below, and it looks to me like this is a clear rejection, again. In theory, when a H&S pattern fails to break, the target for it is the top of the head. However, I labeled a ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, W, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Looks like a bottom
178 0 10
EURUSD, W Long
EURUSD - Looks like a bottom

Reasoning behind the short dollar trade is in the linked chart below. The weekly chart looks like it's shaping a bottom; I might be subjective, I rarely trade in the direction of a breakout. The daily chart has one of the best patterns I use for timing in a trade - Friday-Monday momentum lost. On Friday, the picture was very negative for the Euro, and very ...

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