vlad.adrian

PRO
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Joined Romania
Markets Allocation
39 % stocks 38 % forex 10 % commodities 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 2% | 11 GBPUSD 2% | 10 AUDUSD 2% | 10 AUDNZD 2% | 10
vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURGBP, D, Short ,
EURGBP: EURGBP - Topping out
105 0 9
EURGBP, D Short
EURGBP - Topping out

The weekly chart shows a H&S pattern , and right now we stand, for the second time, at the right shoulder. Although the weekly chart doesn't scream sell, if you look at the daily chart, it offers an excellent opportunity to put on a bet. The daily chart shows a double top, with a false breakout, after a buying climax. Note also the bearish divergence on the ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO ILMN, D, Long ,
ILMN:  Illumina Corp - Further upside possible
31 0 2
ILMN, D Long
Illumina Corp - Further upside possible

Illumina had a slight correction recently, and is now ready to resume the uptrend. The weekly chart is at value, after failing to break the shoulder line resistance, while the volatility and volume decreased significantly if you analyze the Force Index. This leads me to believe that this was a correction, and not a start of a more important bearish move. The ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURTRY, D, Long ,
EURTRY: EURTRY - Possible start of a serious correction
112 3 6
EURTRY, D Long
EURTRY - Possible start of a serious correction

The Turkish Lira has been so beaten up these last few years, it's pretty hard to think about going long. However, looking back, I can spot similar behavior after parabolic moves (labeled on the weekly chart). Note that at the moment the weekly chart is still bullish, so this is an anticipation trade. Going on to the daily chart, a double top is taking shape at ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURZAR, W, Short ,
EURZAR: EURZAR - A perfect setup
72 0 7
EURZAR, W Short
EURZAR - A perfect setup

A setup can't get much better than this for the system I am using; both time frames align perfectly to create a low risk high probability trade. On the weekly chart, a return to the wave after a long period of buying the Rand also marks a test of the broken H&S neckline. This is all you need to go look for a trade on the daily chart. Note that the impulse is ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NZDUSD, 240, Long ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD - At crossroads
55 0 7
NZDUSD, 240 Long
NZDUSD - At crossroads

The New Zealand dollar stands at a very interesting level, and it looks to me like it is rejecting it. Sometimes, an instrument finds itself at a point where it's easy to make a bet, if it goes below you short, if it stays above you go long. The weekly chart shows a possible double bottom (impulse still red, plus this week's candle is all but encouraging) with a ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO VIX, M, Long ,
VIX: VIX - Enough complacency, time to buy volatility
110 4 6
VIX, M Long
VIX - Enough complacency, time to buy volatility

The VIX has been so low only 3 times in the last 15 years, this is the fourth period. That sounds like a nice bet to me! There isn't so much to say about the chart, when the VIX looks like it's bottoming there are only two choices : buy VIX or short stocks. Considering the amazing bull rally we are in right now, I do not want to short stocks, even if they are ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO FRA40, W, Short ,
FRA40: French stocks - short the irrationality
101 7 8
FRA40, W Short
French stocks - short the irrationality

The French election news have been in the spotlight for some time now. Last Sunday, LePen lost the first round, and many investors decided that the French stock market is the place to be. Or is it? Marine LePen never had the lead in the opinion polls for the second round, and the difference she has to surmount in order to beat Macron is huge, 20%. Everyone keeps ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO CC1!, W, Long ,
CC1!: Cocoa - Bearish trend, bullish signals
99 2 11
CC1!, W Long
Cocoa - Bearish trend, bullish signals

Cocoa has been trending down for about a year after a H&S/Double top/failed Cup and handle, whatever you want to call that topping pattern. Price currently stands at a massive support area, the neckline of a 10 year old H&S. The weekly indicators are starting to show bullish divergences. Although not there yet, as the impulse is still red, there will be strong ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Everyone still bearish??
295 2 10
EURUSD, D Long
EURUSD - Everyone still bearish??

I believe being a contrarian just for the sake of it is a fool's game. However, there are certain circumstances, when a contrarian view is warranted. I believe the dollar rally to be one of these special circumstances, I explained my reasons in my previous charts. First of all, I am not sure the dollar rally ended. As I am as sure as I can be from a trading ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NG1!, W, Long ,
NG1!: Natural Gas - Long from neckline
152 0 11
NG1!, W Long
Natural Gas - Long from neckline

Natural gas is a very volatile commodity, with wild swings from time to time. However, lately, the patterns have been obvious. We had a long term downtrend that followed the wave on the way down with precision, a double bottom reversed the trend, then a wider inverted H&S pattern emerged, and now NG is at the h&s neckline which coincides with value. On the daily ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO USOIL, W, Long ,
USOIL: OIL - Targeting 62$-70$
143 0 7
USOIL, W Long
OIL - Targeting 62$-70$

The measurement of the inverted h&s gives a target of 78$; the first bigger resistance level is 62$; I would say that 70$ is a reasonable target. I don't have a specific level in my mind, I am just bullish on oil, which just keeps going higher and higher, helping the inflation outlook in Europe along the way. Soft stop around 50$ ( I would need to see a serious ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO SPY, D,
SPY: Stock market - Christmas study
180 4 11
SPY, D
Stock market - Christmas study

The way this study was conducted : I have labeled the 23rd of each year, the day before Christmas Eve. In some cases, the labeled day differs because the 23rd was a weekend day. I have measured the gain from the swing low before the 23rd, to the close on the 23rd. On average the swing low is on 17-18 December. The results are: 23 Christmas holidays analysed 1 ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO ILMN, D, Long ,
ILMN: Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shoulders
68 0 7
ILMN, D Long
Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shoulders

Previous chart is linked below. On the weekly chart, there is a massive head and shoulders pattern which just keeps failing to break below the neckline. This was the 3rd attempt at a break below, and it looks to me like this is a clear rejection, again. In theory, when a H&S pattern fails to break, the target for it is the top of the head. However, I labeled a ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, W, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Looks like a bottom
173 0 10
EURUSD, W Long
EURUSD - Looks like a bottom

Reasoning behind the short dollar trade is in the linked chart below. The weekly chart looks like it's shaping a bottom; I might be subjective, I rarely trade in the direction of a breakout. The daily chart has one of the best patterns I use for timing in a trade - Friday-Monday momentum lost. On Friday, the picture was very negative for the Euro, and very ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO DXY, W, Short ,
DXY: The end of the 3rd dollar bull run
108 1 11
DXY, W Short
The end of the 3rd dollar bull run

Please start by checking the linked charts, where I explained each phase of this ranging market. The dollar made a beautiful break above 100, and everyone seemed so bullish. What triggered this 3rd bull run? 1) good data from US 2) the prospect of further monetary easing from ECB 3) the promise of fiscal stimulus that would accelerate the economy and would ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO TSLA, W, Long ,
TSLA: Tesla - 400$ is possible
171 5 6
TSLA, W Long
Tesla - 400$ is possible

The weekly zoomed out picture is clear, a long consolidation area where an inverted H&S pattern formed. If prices break out of this consolidation, I think there will be a massive surge to 400$, maybe even 500$ (who ever thought google will go to 1000$?). Right now, price is bouncing off the shoulder line where there is strong support. The daily chart has formed ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO USDTRY, D,
USDTRY: USDTRY - Failed Trade
137 2 7
USDTRY, D
USDTRY - Failed Trade

From time to time, I like to post my mistakes. Usually I do it with private charts, but if there is something for everybody to learn, I make them public. This is a wonderful trade I took on USDTRY, or better said, didn't take. On the weekly chart, the green arrow shows where I bought, the red where I sold. Let me explain the trade. After a strong rise following ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NZDUSD, 240, Long ,
NZDUSD: New Zealand Dollar - Timing a long
99 0 7
NZDUSD, 240 Long
New Zealand Dollar - Timing a long

I will explain in this chart how I am planning a long trade for the NZD. Starting off with the weekly chart, I see a decline to value in NZDUSD, right to the psychological level of 0.7. The Force Index is oversold in an uptrend, this is the time to buy. Going on to the daily chart, I can see a double bottom formation in a bigger H&S formation. When H&S do not ...

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