vlad.adrian

PRO
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Joined Romania
Markets Allocation
40 % stocks 38 % forex 10 % commodities 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 2% | 11 GBPUSD 2% | 10 AUDUSD 2% | 10 AUDNZD 2% | 10
vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO FRA40, W, Short ,
FRA40: French stocks - short the irrationality
9 0 1
FRA40, W Short
French stocks - short the irrationality

The French election news have been in the spotlight for some time now. Last Sunday, LePen lost the first round, and many investors decided that the French stock market is the place to be. Or is it? Marine LePen never had the lead in the opinion polls for the second round, and the difference she has to surmount in order to beat Macron is huge, 20%. Everyone keeps ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO CC1!, W, Long ,
CC1!: Cocoa - Bearish trend, bullish signals
41 2 9
CC1!, W Long
Cocoa - Bearish trend, bullish signals

Cocoa has been trending down for about a year after a H&S/Double top/failed Cup and handle, whatever you want to call that topping pattern. Price currently stands at a massive support area, the neckline of a 10 year old H&S. The weekly indicators are starting to show bullish divergences. Although not there yet, as the impulse is still red, there will be strong ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Everyone still bearish??
278 2 10
EURUSD, D Long
EURUSD - Everyone still bearish??

I believe being a contrarian just for the sake of it is a fool's game. However, there are certain circumstances, when a contrarian view is warranted. I believe the dollar rally to be one of these special circumstances, I explained my reasons in my previous charts. First of all, I am not sure the dollar rally ended. As I am as sure as I can be from a trading ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NG1!, W, Long ,
NG1!: Natural Gas - Long from neckline
138 0 10
NG1!, W Long
Natural Gas - Long from neckline

Natural gas is a very volatile commodity, with wild swings from time to time. However, lately, the patterns have been obvious. We had a long term downtrend that followed the wave on the way down with precision, a double bottom reversed the trend, then a wider inverted H&S pattern emerged, and now NG is at the h&s neckline which coincides with value. On the daily ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO USOIL, W, Long ,
USOIL: OIL - Targeting 62$-70$
135 0 7
USOIL, W Long
OIL - Targeting 62$-70$

The measurement of the inverted h&s gives a target of 78$; the first bigger resistance level is 62$; I would say that 70$ is a reasonable target. I don't have a specific level in my mind, I am just bullish on oil, which just keeps going higher and higher, helping the inflation outlook in Europe along the way. Soft stop around 50$ ( I would need to see a serious ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO SPY, D,
SPY: Stock market - Christmas study
177 4 11
SPY, D
Stock market - Christmas study

The way this study was conducted : I have labeled the 23rd of each year, the day before Christmas Eve. In some cases, the labeled day differs because the 23rd was a weekend day. I have measured the gain from the swing low before the 23rd, to the close on the 23rd. On average the swing low is on 17-18 December. The results are: 23 Christmas holidays analysed 1 ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO ILMN, D, Long ,
ILMN: Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shoulders
62 0 6
ILMN, D Long
Illumina Corp - Failing Head and shoulders

Previous chart is linked below. On the weekly chart, there is a massive head and shoulders pattern which just keeps failing to break below the neckline. This was the 3rd attempt at a break below, and it looks to me like this is a clear rejection, again. In theory, when a H&S pattern fails to break, the target for it is the top of the head. However, I labeled a ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURUSD, W, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD - Looks like a bottom
167 0 9
EURUSD, W Long
EURUSD - Looks like a bottom

Reasoning behind the short dollar trade is in the linked chart below. The weekly chart looks like it's shaping a bottom; I might be subjective, I rarely trade in the direction of a breakout. The daily chart has one of the best patterns I use for timing in a trade - Friday-Monday momentum lost. On Friday, the picture was very negative for the Euro, and very ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO DXY, W, Short ,
DXY: The end of the 3rd dollar bull run
107 1 10
DXY, W Short
The end of the 3rd dollar bull run

Please start by checking the linked charts, where I explained each phase of this ranging market. The dollar made a beautiful break above 100, and everyone seemed so bullish. What triggered this 3rd bull run? 1) good data from US 2) the prospect of further monetary easing from ECB 3) the promise of fiscal stimulus that would accelerate the economy and would ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO TSLA, W, Long ,
TSLA: Tesla - 400$ is possible
162 5 5
TSLA, W Long
Tesla - 400$ is possible

The weekly zoomed out picture is clear, a long consolidation area where an inverted H&S pattern formed. If prices break out of this consolidation, I think there will be a massive surge to 400$, maybe even 500$ (who ever thought google will go to 1000$?). Right now, price is bouncing off the shoulder line where there is strong support. The daily chart has formed ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO USDTRY, D,
USDTRY: USDTRY - Failed Trade
126 2 6
USDTRY, D
USDTRY - Failed Trade

From time to time, I like to post my mistakes. Usually I do it with private charts, but if there is something for everybody to learn, I make them public. This is a wonderful trade I took on USDTRY, or better said, didn't take. On the weekly chart, the green arrow shows where I bought, the red where I sold. Let me explain the trade. After a strong rise following ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO NZDUSD, 240, Long ,
NZDUSD: New Zealand Dollar - Timing a long
92 0 6
NZDUSD, 240 Long
New Zealand Dollar - Timing a long

I will explain in this chart how I am planning a long trade for the NZD. Starting off with the weekly chart, I see a decline to value in NZDUSD, right to the psychological level of 0.7. The Force Index is oversold in an uptrend, this is the time to buy. Going on to the daily chart, I can see a double bottom formation in a bigger H&S formation. When H&S do not ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO XOM, D, Long ,
XOM: Exxon Mobil - Inverted H&S combined with inverted H&S
44 0 3
XOM, D Long
Exxon Mobil - Inverted H&S combined with inverted H&S

Two inverted H&S formations, one on weekly, one on daily. Indicators are not signaling much, as Exxon has been in a correction(Force Index Oversold which is always the best scenario in a correction) on the higher time frame and a consolidation on the daily chart. Soft Stop on this one, it's hard to choose a level, I play these patterns more on feeling. I am ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO WFC, D, Long ,
WFC: Wells Fargo - At crossroads
80 0 6
WFC, D Long
Wells Fargo - At crossroads

I believe that sometimes an instrument will go up if it will go above a level or vice versa. I believe that sometimes trading is that simple. Of course this strategy is affected by false breakouts, but at the end of the year, a trader applying this strategy should come out ahead. Wells Fargo is currently standing at this type of level. It is the base of a massive ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO AUDUSD, D, Long ,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD - Setting up for a big rally
142 0 9
AUDUSD, D Long
AUDUSD - Setting up for a big rally

It makes all the sense in the world for the Australian Dollar to go higher because: 1) It offers a good interest rate against all other g7 currencies. 2) The new governor at the RBA seems to be more bullish on the economy and at the next meeting (tonight) we will find out if he is thinking about further rate cuts. 3) The Fed is going to raise rates, Yellen made it ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO CADJPY, D, Long ,
CADJPY: CADJPY - Long in a downtrend
84 0 9
CADJPY, D Long
CADJPY - Long in a downtrend

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5GRn2lOc/ This is the long term chart of CADJPY, which has been in a clear downtrend. There is a bullish divergence on this wedge which should push price higher, but for now, no need to look for a trend reversal. On the daily chart, a double bottom in a failed H&S continuation pattern with false breakout and bullish divergence calls ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold - A consolidation in an uptrend
243 5 10
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold - A consolidation in an uptrend

Gold has started a new major uptrend, as shown in my previous two charts linked below. The price of gold is currently going sideways, consolidating and testing support at 1300 level. Although the weekly chart has not reached value at the EMA Wave, the Force Index was oversold and the impulse turned green after a bullish engulfing candle, all very bullish. Going ...

vlad.adrian vlad.adrian PRO EURHUF, D, Long ,
EURHUF: EURHUF - Long from bottom of the range
39 0 7
EURHUF, D Long
EURHUF - Long from bottom of the range

For quite some time, EURHUF has been trading sideways. The 307 level has been very important in the last decade, many trend changes happened at this level. On Thursday, after the FED, the Hungarian Forint accelerated strongly and broke below the 307 level. Today, half of that move has been corrected, and price closed above the 307 level today, forming a class A ...

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