vlad.adrian

vlad.adrian

A new high for the the Dow - 30000, followed by a rejection. Let's zoom out and see what we can find out. From a technical perspective, we have reached the previous all time high, and on the way, some possible bearish patterns have emerged. I say possible, because the impulse system is still green, which means that momentum is still to the upside. However, a...

vlad.adrian

The market has gone wild, fueled by Fed policy, low interest rates and manic crowds. No matter what, the market always has a rhythm, and except specific situations, stocks return to their mean. In my case, this is represented by the 34 day EMA Wave, that is what I consider mean/value. On the weekly chart, Tesla has overshot the Wave by more than 100%. As you can...

vlad.adrian

This chart does not have my usual indicators on it, because in this case, price action is all you need. Bitcoin has been trading sort of sideways for quite a while, and sideways movement almost always precedes a strong move. Usually, for a stock, ranging represents accumulation, but this is not the case for bitcoin. The range we have seen during these last...

vlad.adrian

After a tremendous bull run, recently we have seen terrible volatility in global stock markets. On a closer look, the volatility was not contagious for other assets classes, which in theory proves that these moves have been technical rather than fundamental. Investors have not been fleeing to safe heaven assets, rather to cash, cash that may be waiting on the...

vlad.adrian

For more on my view about cryptocurrencies, check Do cryptocurrencies have a real future? Yes. Does their price reflect their true utility? Probably not. This chart is not about the usefulness of crypto, or about the advantages the blockchain brings to the way we conduct business or go...

vlad.adrian

There are a lot of things that I could say about Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general, but I will try not to go into details. By details, I am not referring to the technical side of it, or its technology, but rather the trading aspects, and how markets work in general. To any serious individual that is involved in the market, this is a clear bubble. The big...

vlad.adrian

After breaking major resistance at 1.15, the Euro grinded lower to test that wide support area. Last week we had a clear rejection off it, and at the same time rejection off the 34 day EMA Wave. This is the futures chart I am using for the weekly, that shows reliable volume bars. Look at the condition of the Force Index, it is out of its channel, oversold in an...

vlad.adrian

After breaking the major resistance area around 40$, Alcoa viciously came back down for a test. I would buy against this major support, given the bullish hammers and the oversold Force Index. Soft stop below resistance, around 36$. Target at 60$.

vlad.adrian

The weekly chart stands at value, with a consolidation pattern that is getting tighter and tighter. The daily chart shows a failing H&S pattern with a perfect double bottom at the right shoulder. Note that the impulse is still red, as soon as it turns blue, it is time to add. The 4H chart is where the anticipation happens. After a smaller double bottom on even...

vlad.adrian

This is not the best looking chart, however, what attracted me to this trade is the BoC meeting on Wednesday, when a rate hike is widely expected. This is the time to put on a trade, when the risk reward is theoretically in your favor. The market fully priced in a rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% from Poloz and co., and IMO the only danger to this trade is a very...

vlad.adrian

The weekly chart shows a H&S pattern , and right now we stand, for the second time, at the right shoulder. Although the weekly chart doesn't scream sell, if you look at the daily chart, it offers an excellent opportunity to put on a bet. The daily chart shows a double top, with a false breakout, after a buying climax. Note also the bearish divergence on the...

vlad.adrian

Illumina had a slight correction recently, and is now ready to resume the uptrend. The weekly chart is at value, after failing to break the shoulder line resistance, while the volatility and volume decreased significantly if you analyze the Force Index. This leads me to believe that this was a correction, and not a start of a more important bearish move. The...

vlad.adrian

The Turkish Lira has been so beaten up these last few years, it's pretty hard to think about going long. However, looking back, I can spot similar behavior after parabolic moves (labeled on the weekly chart). Note that at the moment the weekly chart is still bullish, so this is an anticipation trade. Going on to the daily chart, a double top is taking shape at...

vlad.adrian

A setup can't get much better than this for the system I am using; both time frames align perfectly to create a low risk high probability trade. On the weekly chart, a return to the wave after a long period of buying the Rand also marks a test of the broken H&S neckline. This is all you need to go look for a trade on the daily chart. Note that the impulse is...

vlad.adrian

The New Zealand dollar stands at a very interesting level, and it looks to me like it is rejecting it. Sometimes, an instrument finds itself at a point where it's easy to make a bet, if it goes below you short, if it stays above you go long. The weekly chart shows a possible double bottom (impulse still red, plus this week's candle is all but encouraging) with a...

vlad.adrian

The VIX has been so low only 3 times in the last 15 years, this is the fourth period. That sounds like a nice bet to me! There isn't so much to say about the chart, when the VIX looks like it's bottoming there are only two choices : buy VIX or short stocks. Considering the amazing bull rally we are in right now, I do not want to short stocks, even if they are...

vlad.adrian

The French election news have been in the spotlight for some time now. Last Sunday, LePen lost the first round, and many investors decided that the French stock market is the place to be. Or is it? Marine LePen never had the lead in the opinion polls for the second round, and the difference she has to surmount in order to beat Macron is huge, 20%. Everyone keeps...

vlad.adrian

Cocoa has been trending down for about a year after a H&S/Double top/failed Cup and handle, whatever you want to call that topping pattern. Price currently stands at a massive support area, the neckline of a 10 year old H&S. The weekly indicators are starting to show bullish divergences. Although not there yet, as the impulse is still red, there will be strong...