vlad.adrian

EURCAD - Sentiment and technicals point to a bounce

Long
FX:EURCAD   Euro / Canadian Dollar
This is not the best looking chart, however, what attracted me to this trade is the BoC meeting on Wednesday, when a rate hike is widely expected. This is the time to put on a trade, when the risk reward is theoretically in your favor. The market fully priced in a rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% from Poloz and co., and IMO the only danger to this trade is a very hawkish hike, however, how likely is that? The Canadian economy definitely showed signs of improvement recently, however, did anyone look at oil lately? How hawkish can a hike be? This reminds me of the episode when the FED dropped the word 'patient'. What if the BoC does not hike? Probably 2% to the upside in seconds.

Looking at the weekly chart, not much to say. Wider view - sideways market, zoom in a little - small uptrend, price standing at value.

The daily chart is more interesting. A possible failed H&S , with false breakouts, a small bullish divergence on the MACD histogram and a bullish candle last week.

The 4H chart, where I do my timing, shows a big bullish divergence on a double bottom . However, no really bullish candle yet, when I'll see that candle, I'll double up.

Soft stop below the swing low, no target though, because for me it matters how the BoC meeting turns out. Depending on the outcome, my feelings/emotions and technical picture at that time, I will manage the position.

Same goes for USDCAD , where I have a long position as well.

Trade closed manually: Closed on break-even. Not the reaction I expected.

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