Note: chart is not showing full trend, scroll down and to the left to see the full pitchfork trend.
Are we at the bottom?
Either at the bottom or close to it. Zooming out we see (1) the RSI indicates we are "oversold" at levels only seen during/close to market bottoms. (2) The long term upward trend channel for BTC also suggests we are in or around the bottom and provides strong support. (3) The prior all time high provides an additional support level since that is usually where the BTC price drops to when receding from a cyclical ATH. (4) The combination of 2 & 3 supports almost coinciding right now provides an extra level of confidence.
Upward trend pitchfork channels like these can break down, especially in alt coins; however, BTC dominates the crypto market and the limited supply will always push for an upward trend. Alt coins come and go in an evermore competitive environment (more cryptos being created all the time) and BTC still wants to dominate them all so the alt coins are crowding each other out.
Why should BTC be in a long term upward trend?
Why (and when) would BTC break down of the upward trend?
1.2 million sounds crazy!
Yes it does, but I am just reading the chart. Even if the price would simply stay in the bottom quadrant of the pitchfork channel for the next 2 years (extremely bear market) it would still be above $100k by the end of 2024. This all depends on that lovely pitchfork channel though.
When should I sell?
Hard to say, but DCA is your friend for selling and buying. When everyone is talking about meme coins and NFTs is a good indicator of over-exuberance for example. Everyone was saying BTC at 30K wouldn't happen again, and here we are. I suck at selling the top.
But what about LUNA and UST !?!
LUNA's supply was not fixed, it was(is?) an inflationary currency but worse than most fiat currencies since it was regulated by an algorithm and someone could also just click the "print more money" button manually. Anyone buying into LUNA was basically putting their money as collateral to stabilize UST. There is no way to print more BTC except for the little bit that is created with mining that will eventually go to zero.
This is not financial advice.
Are we at the bottom?
Either at the bottom or close to it. Zooming out we see (1) the RSI indicates we are "oversold" at levels only seen during/close to market bottoms. (2) The long term upward trend channel for BTC also suggests we are in or around the bottom and provides strong support. (3) The prior all time high provides an additional support level since that is usually where the BTC price drops to when receding from a cyclical ATH. (4) The combination of 2 & 3 supports almost coinciding right now provides an extra level of confidence.
Upward trend pitchfork channels like these can break down, especially in alt coins; however, BTC dominates the crypto market and the limited supply will always push for an upward trend. Alt coins come and go in an evermore competitive environment (more cryptos being created all the time) and BTC still wants to dominate them all so the alt coins are crowding each other out.
Why should BTC be in a long term upward trend?
- people lose private keys all the time = coins lost forever = fewer coins in circulation
- More demand over time since not enough coins exist for every millionaire to own 1BTC
- Growing population = more demand
- Inflationary currencies
Why (and when) would BTC break down of the upward trend?
- BTC no longer dominates the crypto market
- Crypto becomes less relevant or obsolete for some reason
- Quantum computers are able to decipher private keys
- maybe other reasons as well
1.2 million sounds crazy!
Yes it does, but I am just reading the chart. Even if the price would simply stay in the bottom quadrant of the pitchfork channel for the next 2 years (extremely bear market) it would still be above $100k by the end of 2024. This all depends on that lovely pitchfork channel though.
When should I sell?
Hard to say, but DCA is your friend for selling and buying. When everyone is talking about meme coins and NFTs is a good indicator of over-exuberance for example. Everyone was saying BTC at 30K wouldn't happen again, and here we are. I suck at selling the top.
But what about LUNA and UST !?!
LUNA's supply was not fixed, it was(is?) an inflationary currency but worse than most fiat currencies since it was regulated by an algorithm and someone could also just click the "print more money" button manually. Anyone buying into LUNA was basically putting their money as collateral to stabilize UST. There is no way to print more BTC except for the little bit that is created with mining that will eventually go to zero.
This is not financial advice.