So this is the fractal i mentioned a few times the past month or so, April 2018. Most of you might remember that period, it fooled almost everyone in being extremely bearish , except me of course ;).
It doesn't look identical i know, but i have several to why i assumed it could be in play.
I had a small deja vu from April 2018 low, started with the trap move at the 7400 low, was almost the same as back then. Now when looking more at it, could be we are in the same stage. Looks like we might have similar steps
(7400 low should be 6400 by the way)
One of the scary things as well with this fractal , even the levels are almost identical.
- With the low at 6400
- The high at 8400 after the first pump
- The high at the moment at 9000 is even the same
- Alts pumped big during this rally. In 2018 it happened during the 8000 consolidation, now it was different but the pumps are there though.
Most importantly even, but i will not disclose it though. During this bottom formation, we got a identical move/pattern then and now. I mentioned it back then, showed it with a another asset outside of crypto as well. This pattern is worth gold and only happens rarely. I will give one hint, back then i kept talking about 1 big boss whale in crypto. With big boss, i mean that this whale eats up all other whales at certain important moments. Back then, i said that this big whale turned the very bearish pattern in 2018 into a big bear trap. I do not remember if i talked about it in my analysis/updates or in the comment section answering my followers.
Now i don't follow fractals blindly anymore, not as we were able to do so in the first 6 months 2018. But as long as it is in play, i see no big reason not to think it can play out. Now for example, fractal says we should not drop below 8700/8800 anymore. But i am going to give the fractal room until the important level of 8600. Since we have not made any significant correction, it could be that whales are keeping pressure on the bears here. A scenario i mentioned as well yesterday in free channel. That whales might prevent a big correction, to force one more big move up. This would be exactly the same as the fractal if that plays out. Normally, we should have seen a correction already, a bull shake out towards 8500/200 even. But so far, not seeing bigger drops than 200/250 points.
Now chart above is a zoom in of the current situation. We can see it's not the same, but also not that different. Think current move is still a consolidation (or top formation if fractal is not in play).
In the chart below, we can see a clear triangle. Normally at this position and with this shape, it should break upwards. However, past hour it has dropped back to its support again. It's a bit weird tbh that it did not just broke up, so starting to wonder if bears are in charge here on the low time frame. On the right i have drawn a wedge . This wedge is to prepare for a weak move up. Target of the triangle is 9200ish (or 8600ish if we break down). So if we see a break up, but not reaching 9100ish, or seeing like a wick up and back down below 9000/8950, than the bearish wedge might be in play. Also has a target around 8600.
For now, it's weekend so we can see some shake out moves happen as well on the low time frame. Think also important to be on the lookout for correction bigger than 200/250 points. Alts seem to be playing an important role again, so i would keep an eye on those as well. With that i mean, if you see alts showing real strength (with a move up or a bullish consolidation), while bitcoin moves sideways, in 2018 it would mean that Bitcoin would follow eventually. This could be the case now as well.
It doesn't look identical i know, but i have several to why i assumed it could be in play.
I had a small deja vu from April 2018 low, started with the trap move at the 7400 low, was almost the same as back then. Now when looking more at it, could be we are in the same stage. Looks like we might have similar steps
(7400 low should be 6400 by the way)
One of the scary things as well with this fractal , even the levels are almost identical.
- With the low at 6400
- The high at 8400 after the first pump
- The high at the moment at 9000 is even the same
- Alts pumped big during this rally. In 2018 it happened during the 8000 consolidation, now it was different but the pumps are there though.
Most importantly even, but i will not disclose it though. During this bottom formation, we got a identical move/pattern then and now. I mentioned it back then, showed it with a another asset outside of crypto as well. This pattern is worth gold and only happens rarely. I will give one hint, back then i kept talking about 1 big boss whale in crypto. With big boss, i mean that this whale eats up all other whales at certain important moments. Back then, i said that this big whale turned the very bearish pattern in 2018 into a big bear trap. I do not remember if i talked about it in my analysis/updates or in the comment section answering my followers.
Now i don't follow fractals blindly anymore, not as we were able to do so in the first 6 months 2018. But as long as it is in play, i see no big reason not to think it can play out. Now for example, fractal says we should not drop below 8700/8800 anymore. But i am going to give the fractal room until the important level of 8600. Since we have not made any significant correction, it could be that whales are keeping pressure on the bears here. A scenario i mentioned as well yesterday in free channel. That whales might prevent a big correction, to force one more big move up. This would be exactly the same as the fractal if that plays out. Normally, we should have seen a correction already, a bull shake out towards 8500/200 even. But so far, not seeing bigger drops than 200/250 points.
Now chart above is a zoom in of the current situation. We can see it's not the same, but also not that different. Think current move is still a consolidation (or top formation if fractal is not in play).
In the chart below, we can see a clear triangle. Normally at this position and with this shape, it should break upwards. However, past hour it has dropped back to its support again. It's a bit weird tbh that it did not just broke up, so starting to wonder if bears are in charge here on the low time frame. On the right i have drawn a wedge . This wedge is to prepare for a weak move up. Target of the triangle is 9200ish (or 8600ish if we break down). So if we see a break up, but not reaching 9100ish, or seeing like a wick up and back down below 9000/8950, than the bearish wedge might be in play. Also has a target around 8600.
For now, it's weekend so we can see some shake out moves happen as well on the low time frame. Think also important to be on the lookout for correction bigger than 200/250 points. Alts seem to be playing an important role again, so i would keep an eye on those as well. With that i mean, if you see alts showing real strength (with a move up or a bullish consolidation), while bitcoin moves sideways, in 2018 it would mean that Bitcoin would follow eventually. This could be the case now as well.
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Upfront i said, the possible wedge and/or a possible shake out wick to 9100/200 and dump being the possible risks in favor for the bears. So far, no real rejection or a shake out wick. Also because there is no wick, we can also say, there was no bearish wedge. Not saying bulls are save now, still a chance to fall back in to the wedge, which then usually means more dumping, but think the breakout is a bit too strong so far.
Alts are pretty damn weak to be honest, bit disappointing since they moved so amazingly past week, so that surprises me a bit. Also don't know yet what to make of that.
Low time frame, think 9100/50 should be the max for a drop, preferably even staying above 9080. Don't think a retest up to 8900/9000 would mean anything good. Ideally we see some sideways movement for a few hours and then making another move up. So at this point, looks like the fractal is in play. Do not blindly assume we will reach the same levels again. It could, would be kinda sick even, but would be a bit too easy as well