Release of FOMC meeting minutes revealed the opinion of the majority of FOMC voting members that FED should slow down with further increases of interest rates from current 75 bps. Considering that it takes some time until monetary measures transfer into the real economy, the current figures are showing that the inflation is modestly slowing down, while still holding a relatively healthy labour market. Further strong increases of interest rates might do more harm to the US economy, although, they will faster make for inflation to drop to targeted 2%. However, these measures are imposed to decrease demand, where too much tightening might bring the US economy to the severe recession. Market is already pricing that the next increase in December might be 50bps. There was modest positive market reaction to this news, mostly on equity markets. The crypto market is still waiting for the final resolution of contingencies coming from FTX collapse.
Bitcoin started the previous week heading down to the level of $15.5K. There had been modest positive market reaction considering FOMC minutes release, where the price reverted a bit to the upside, and highest weekly level of $16.8. BTC is finishing the week around $16.5K. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, which implied only incremental moves during the second half of the week. RSI moved from level of 30 to 40, but it still doesn’t show that the market has actually started to look up to the overbought side. There had not been any change also with moving averages of 50 and 200 days as these lines continue to move as two parallel lines with clear downtrend.
Both investors and traders are on hold currently, so incremental moves could continue also during the week ahead. At times of uncertainty, fundamental news is the ones that are moving the market. In order for the crypto market to move from current increments it will take investors confidence that FTX contingencies are over. It might take an additional week or two, maybe more in case of more negative news. Precaution is advisable at this moment. As per current charts, the price of BTC might try to go up and to test $17K resistance, while on the opposite side, $15.5K might be tested again.
Bitcoin started the previous week heading down to the level of $15.5K. There had been modest positive market reaction considering FOMC minutes release, where the price reverted a bit to the upside, and highest weekly level of $16.8. BTC is finishing the week around $16.5K. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, which implied only incremental moves during the second half of the week. RSI moved from level of 30 to 40, but it still doesn’t show that the market has actually started to look up to the overbought side. There had not been any change also with moving averages of 50 and 200 days as these lines continue to move as two parallel lines with clear downtrend.
Both investors and traders are on hold currently, so incremental moves could continue also during the week ahead. At times of uncertainty, fundamental news is the ones that are moving the market. In order for the crypto market to move from current increments it will take investors confidence that FTX contingencies are over. It might take an additional week or two, maybe more in case of more negative news. Precaution is advisable at this moment. As per current charts, the price of BTC might try to go up and to test $17K resistance, while on the opposite side, $15.5K might be tested again.
