Scenario 2. Assuming we have turned the corner and are now in a bull market (frankly, its hard not to be a bull looking at this chart...oops, personal opinion aside...lol). We will know for sure we are back in a secular bull if those previous highs at 719.25 are broken in earnest. Ideally, the break of that level will bring in a wave of new buying and the cycle continues as those that bought below are insulated by new buyers above. While on this latest move higher may be suspect, there is currently no top in price and recent consolidations have been shallow. Those that wish to try and 'pick tops' may chose to do so at their peril, I for one shall not be a part of that camp. The bull is in charge at the moment, the question is, has he run out of steam? Interestingly, institutions probably wouldn't consider buying and probably won't be buyers of size for some time to come. Indeed, BTC's fate is (in my opinion) now up to the broader market and the initial inertia the institutional buying below has generated. There are several fundamental events shortly (Stock IPO's etc) to look forward to so we shall see if the proverbial match they have lit will cause the fire to catch. The key here is buying (big green bar ) & OBV. OBV is ok but the latest surge in price did not generate a higher big green bar. While not a 'sell' signal in itself, if we fail to produce a new higher bar going forward it will be hard to justify price. Willy just had an 'upthrust' so lets see where he can take us before he gets 'stupid' again (if he get there at all). Additionally, while one may start to lose faith in indicators that spit out signals yet fail to deliver results, momentum ultimately wont' be denied - three times a charm, or something like that...lol.... It may take some time to clean itself up, but my hunch is smart money won't be buying in earnest until momentum bottoms. When it does (coupled with price) those are ultimately the best trade locations. So if I am a buyer, I recon I should be watching the $547 (38.2 fib) and $500 (61.8 fib) areas over the short term. They both have support and are psychologically important. I really like the $500 area because of its proximity to the 200 period and the fact that it is indeed a really big bfrn (big fat round number).
So put it all together and I think the long / bull Bitcoin community should give itself a big pat on the back for both hanging in through a tough winter/spring of 2014 and hopefully being able to line their pockets rather nicely through the rally. It appears both public sentiment and anticipated institutional interest coincided perfectly. In my opinion, a floor has been established on the crypto-currency by institutional players and pullbacks into 'defended' levels ought to represent buying opportunities going forward. The ultimate question really now is, will those pullbacks happen at all.....fingers crossed...
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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Thank you again for your donations. To date all donations have been used for trading purposes. I am still long 1/3 of my original position (currently .20 coins) with $500USD on the sidelines ready to buy more..... ty again all
Any OTE reference should have an appropriate foot note. I learned the technique from Inner Circle Trader (YouTube) and he should get credit for its legitimacy.