(today's commentary is so big I had to break it into two....lol)
Watching the rather impressive rally in Bitcoin over the past weeks has been quite fun and a long overdue affirmation of its legitimacy as both a trading vehicle and a fundamentally sound investment idea. On what has turned out to be a rather well telegraphed long entry signal ($459), price has relentlessly moved towards my anticipated upside target zone. A rather wise market commentator once recently told me, 'it is really wise to slow down and take a look a that the big picture'. Indeed, watching the four hour chart (and taking levels off it) has worked rather nicely over the course of the past couple weeks..sage words of advice to all ( ty Low_Pro). Within the rally itself, Willy has 'gone stupid' twice and both times has cleaned himself up and took another run to new highs - very impressive and a sign of overt bullishness in itself. I find the rally interesting too in that it has come in the face of lackluster performance from many of the 'alts'. This is not a sign of a speculative top. Institutions are buying BTC in size and in my opinion, establishing a 'floor' for the industry. We have long talked about the Daily Optimal Trade Entry ( OTE ) long zone, so the fact that 'they' turned the market in and around $400 should be of no big surprise ($404 OTE Long sweet spot!). Having said that and regardless of what your personal sentiment is, we are now at a very real crossroads and as technicians we must respect that. We have now entered the war zone, the 'easy' money was just made, now we will find out if we are indeed within a secular bull market or still well contained within the bear. So lets paint the two scenarios just so we understand what's at stake here.
Scenario 1. Assuming we are sill in nothing more than a protracted bear market, those institutions that believe Bitcoin is still a good short idea shall attempt to establish a ceiling in and around the Optimal Trade Entry ( OTE ) short zone.Currently that is between $575 to $638. There are two working bull targets around $638 so I wouldn't be surprised to see some play in that area anyway. If we look at the previous peak, we see a lot of candle lows and highs. Another wise commentator once told me these are 'battle zone' in price and should be respected ( ty Flibbr). Lots of bets were placed and lots of stop orders may still exist in and around these levels. Regardless, this is the area where there is gonna be a fight. Serious bears will only start to abandon their positions should the previous significant high (719.25) be breached and they will either add to or take profits on serious tests of the significant lows of $340. Since they are higher time frame players, they have deep pockets, so spikes at those levels may or may not get them to act but we should understand that those will be big targets for them on their respective 'range' trade.