The 2 main gaps below (8.5k and 7.7k) have now been filled and in doing so on the weekend, we've now created a rather large gap above current price action that will eventually be getting filled as well. The question is whether or not there will be any further downside before that. We can see we are still well under a very a very precarious head and shouylders pattern here but one good sign is the golden fib retracement level(aka the 61.80) is currently been holding support on the daily closes. This is one of Bitcoins absolute favorite fib levels to reverse trend at so it is definitely probably that we could bounce back up from here...if not and we also fail to maintain the 7777 horizontal as support the next likely support is the horizontal around 7428 or so...if we were to go down that far before reversing back upward we would start painting the 2nd shoulder of a very symmetrical textbook looking inverse head and shoulder pattern on the weekly chart that would have a breakout target of 14k. However, if we were to reverse the trend here at the golden fib and go up from here it would also still be a valid inverse head and shoulders the second shoulder just wouldn't be quite as symmetrical. Ultimately as long as we don't dip below 6.3k before finally seeing a trend reversal back upward we will secure our follow up daily higher low after having our first daily chart higher high in awhile which would still be a bullish sign and keep the macro price action in the bulls control. Even if we dipped all the way to our previous low we would still have a double bottom in play that would have the same breakout target as the inverse head and shoulders would...as long as we don't go below 6.3k the bulls still have control but I think we will either see the golden fib maintain support or the 7428 horizontal with the absolute worse case scenario being we dip back to 6.3 and bounce to validate a double bottom. As always this is not financial advice but I personally will be laddering in small buys each rung down, dollar cost averaging/ buying the dip.
Comment:
Ugly update here as the head and shoulders reached its breakdown target and then went even further down creating a lower low in the process.The good news is this is the most massive red candle we've seen since the beginning of the ebar market so this is likely the start of capitulation...not sure how low the bottom could really be though, but I'm confident crypto bottom will be by q2 based on this sheer size of this candle...might be in even sooner.