Bitcoin bottom forecast. Trendline, 200EMA, support and gap fill

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is my analysis. Please do not base ANY trades off this or take it as advice. If you have any thoughts on agreeing or disagreeing please let me know I'd love to hear you out!

At the time of writing this we have seen more than a 5% decline in the price of BTC and the total market cap has taken a massive hit. Here is what I see as a potential play and why I think so (and no it has nothing to do with the bitcoin cash fork haha).

What I see for the outcome and bottom for bitcoin is a capitalization wick down to the 200EMA around the $4,150 mark but closing above the trend line on the weekly around $4,400-$4,500. Volume is decreasing which will need to pick up but decreasing volume could show signs of weakness from the bears. Expect the bulls to wake up and punch a green bar when we hit these levels. I expect the bottom to be in around mid December and a reversal from there back into the range shown leading up to the next halving.

Read further down to see why I think this.

The trend line which has been in play on the log graph for year has been touched 5 times. History tends to repeat itself and the more times a trend line is touched the stronger it becomes. The trend line alone sees bitcoin on the weekly chart hitting around $4,500.

The 200 EMA is a crucial support for bitcoin and currently is sits around $4,150.

Looking at the support it is no surprise that bitcoin has dropped after the support at $6,000 broke. The next major support starts at roughly $4,400.

Lastly there is a gap that bitcoin did not fill on the way up. We are currently filling this gap as we speak and after filling this gap it would take us to around $4,700.



This is what happened Nov 2013 - Nov 2015

This is what's been happening Dec 2017 - NOW
Looks like it is going to $4.3k... If it does not hold, may God help us
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