BTC/USD - Bitfinex - 18.09.2017

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The previous corrective movement of Bitcoin lasted 35 days, correcting 35% of a rise of more than 200%. This movement had three lower legs and the correction ended after touching a support very close to the 61% fibo region.

This last high we had reached 160% and already corrected 35% of this movement in only 12 days reaching the highest volume of the last 90 days. This fall has representative strength compared to the previous correction. This first low leg finished after arriving in the support region at $ 3,000 and is now making a correction of the fall, where already suffered moderate resistance in the region of 38% fibo, leaving two candles of doubt.

But the price has broken and continues to rise to where it is now, in the resistance of the region of 3950.
At the point where we at this time, we have beyond the resistance of an ancient background in 3950, the encounter with LTB that was formed with the tops of this correction in H4. We can observe that the price has already broken the resistance and is testing the LTB, but the OBV line is not accompanying the price movement. I will consider confirming the breakup of this region when the OBV line comes along with breaking the resistance in price.

If this resistance is broken we still have resistance at 61% of fibo at 4200 (which is close to the average of 20), and at 4700 before the price reaches its last top. We can see then that we have three resistors ahead until the price comes to get its last top, and in addition, in the previous correction we had 3 waves of low until the price rises again. These facts may indicate that we may have at least one more downward wave ahead.

If the price continues to rise and break this resistance formed by the old bottom and the LTB, it can go up to the region of 61% fibo and fall again, forming a new LTB of the correction. This second corrective wave can go up to the new LTA -0.32% that was formed or until the LTA -0.32% older (that this near the average of 200) to then resume its movement of discharge.

In this period the price movement may also form an upward or symmetrical triangle with the LTAs that are already formed and the tops that may eventually form. Should bait occur a breach up can come with great force and throw the price to a new historical peak.

Another scenario that may occur, the least likely for me, is the price break all the resistances and go fetch the last top, even break it and continue to rise.

In my point of view, the best thing to do now is to wait for a fix on one of the LTAs quoted and enter short stop below them. It is ideal that the price reaches again the region of 3 thousand dollars, because I believe that if it happens, it will never return to this value.


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