BTC on path to 69k by end of April: Ending Diagonal in Progress

Part of my ongoing analysis (click links below).
Apr 05: 55.5k Retrace End
Mar 30: 59.5k Bounce Top
Mar 24: 50.1k Retrace Target
Mar 17: 59.8k Top Warning
Mar 16: 53.3k Bounce Call
Mar 13: 61.2k Top Warning

I have been building this picture for some time.
The recent surge past 61k painted the wave (3).
Now expecting a pullback at any moment for (4).

64.5 - 65.25 is next resistance, likely to start a pullback.
63.25 or 61.5 are likely pullback targets before resume.
67.0 - 67.4 is a possible end point before idea target.

69.0 - 69.6k is ideal target for "a" top if not "the" top.

It is POSSIBLE that we top at 65k and collapse
It is PROBABLE that we see continuation higher.
It is PLAUSILBE that we blow thru it all to 85k :)

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Comment:

DIP, right on time.

Hard to tell on original tf:

but easier to see on zoom below:

Zoomed IN

only a 2.8% dip SO FAR.
Likely we see a little bounce here before continuation down.

All of a sudden 61.25k is looking very very close.

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Comment:

Acceleration of the Dip

We gaining speed to the dip wave

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Zoom IN (5 min) Getting close to our target at 61,256

Zoom in MORE (1 min) and adding a fib to the last wave down

Pretty good fit, lets keep it.

Zoom OUT a bit (3 min) and add the new above new fib to the existing map:

3 possible targets:
1) local 9.471 at 61.6k may bounce us.
2) local 10.089 in confluence with high tf fib (dotted) around 61.4
3) local 11.089 Golden fib at 61.1 might act as backstop for Genesis fib at 61,256

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Considering the above, we have a pretty solid support zone mapped now

61,101 to 61,256 which might defend 61 round number.
We may not go that low, but IF we do, need to see a strong bounce.
Ideally we get a loud "Ping" (exact ricochet) off the Genesis fib at 61,256

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Parsing all of the new confluences, we have some new Zones of interest

Immediate hurdle the local gold 6.853 at 62,428
Above that 2 new resistances around 63.25 and 63.75.
It will be important to observe the reaction at those levels.

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SUMMARY
- Proceed exactly as planned.
- We MAY have bottomed at 61.6k.
- Break of 63,250 would add credibility to bottom.


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Comment:

Almoooooost There

Another dip after Coinbase IPO launch, pushing closer to our target

see a little deceleration above it, a good sign.

Ideally, we got a loud Ping on the Genesis fib at 61,256......

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Comment:

Close Enough?

Price Label attached via magnet, as compared to expected target

close enough to call it a touch imo.
Now to see if that first resistance can be flipped into support.
Until then odds are we go lower

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Comment:

First Barrier broken

Next up Local golden fib at 62,248 which might cause a retest so looking for something like this

That would be an ideal bullish move.
Retest and confirm support ABOVE our genesis fib at 61.25.

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Comment:

Bounce looking better and better!

Per last snap above, pushed past first possible turning point

Now we have a double fib resistance to deal with:

So it is possible we see that retest now:

For a possible "inverted head n shoulders".
BTC often paints an iHnS for bottoms.
See if we get another one here at this historic level.

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SUMMARY:
- Bounced EXACTLY where hoped.
- Bounce looking good so far.
- Possible Dip coming here, if so, 62k bounce would be Ideal.

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Comment:

Bounce still looking great!

Per last snapshot above, pushed past the double fib

No big dip for second shoulder as expected.

BUT we could get a pullback from the local 5.236 (often a strong ratio)

So lets see how it goes from here.

But all in all, really starting to look like Bottom is In!
Of course, as soon as I say that, it will crash, so pretend i did NOT say that.

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Comment:

Flight path running into Turbulence

Our bounce has hit some serious resistance where expected:

That snap from original plot and zones.

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Zoom IN (3 min) and looking at the wave structure of bounce:

Looks like a 5wave impulse done,
now the obligator 3wave retrace.
Gold fib at 62,248 the idea bounce point.

Could go to lower fibs and still be a bullish bounce, but lets hope for a Golden fib rescue

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Comment:

Bounce came back down.

Was looking pretty good, until a substantial drop for last 2 hours

News about a fire in China that shut down 30% of bitcoin hash rate.
Might have been miners selling to help tide things over until reopen?

Currently looking like another leg down coming, perhaps to 61.1k like this

Hard to say much right now, so we watch and measure, watch and measure.


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Comment:

Another dip since last update.

Wave (4) has gone deeper than my original optimistic plot:

BUT it did not encroach into wave (1).
So thus far the EW remains valid.

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Zoom IN (15 min) and looking at the wave structure:

Looks to be a well defined wave C, with the requisite 5 wave structure.

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Zoom IN more (8 min) and isolate the fib of retrace thus far

This fib shows that the key level is 62,428
Bulls must take that fib and then flip to support.
Hopefully we will NOT test the Gold fib below at 61,101

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SUMMARY
- Very good chance that ABC is now done.
- Wave 4 of C hit top of wave 1, acceptable.
- We have a solid local fib for reference here.

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