COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I know everyone seems so happy about the inverted head and shoulders . You see people saying it's a "textbook" trade "bulls are in charge" and "buy now!"

Well, I see a few problems here. First of all, we've essentially broken the major resistance line and guess what? No one showed up to buy after that happened. In fact, volume has dropped off. Weird huh?

Secondly, look at the stoch rsi - many time frames are close to peaking, so it seems odd that we would get a major push upward while they are almost spent.

Thirdly, we have Bear Divs , indicating a further drop.

and 4th, we have a classic rising wedge formation.

That being said, I'm holding BTC with a stop above 10,200.

I'm being cautious here, and waiting for a REAL breakout over the trendline to buy more. IMO downward movement with volume and momentum is possible here. Be careful and be safe while the market decides what to do next.

Good Luck!

Comment: I forgot to mark the rising wedge in the first bearish divergence and TV won't allow me to edit the chart. You can see the wedge pattern and stoch is very similar.
Comment: two possible scenarios posted in comment section
Comment: Wedge breached downward as I suspected. It still may rally, but I'm more certain that a fairly large sell off will occur if this is a C wave.

We had very little retrace of the wave up from 5900, so I would suspect we would get to .5 of the entire move (8900 area) or .618 (8100 area). We'll have to see how this wave shapes up and what the stoch rsi's tells us. Hope you have youir stop losses in place. Good Luck!

Comment: Very close to buy zone, I'm laddering in bids. At least going to play the swing back up, not sure I will keep any coins over 10k
Comment: Buys Filled with a few left hanging at the .618. I don;t think we are going lower for now. This has the potential to be a large WAVE 3 to 14-15k, so I'm probably not going to sell over 10k. LTC also a strong buy IMO. Good Luck!
Comment: Possible alternate count. Buying more on anything below 8200. Laddering in slowly depending on the amount of panic. We could go as low as 7500, but that would have to have very dramatic selling. Buy when there is doom in the air. This will be a great swing back up to 9500 area I think.

Good Luck!
Comment: Didn't get filled last night, but bought a little on this small dip after this morning's rally. However, I see this as a potential. Be careful as we get above 9600 and set stops in profit. Good Luck!

Comment: I don't like the bearish divergence and oversold stoch on the the 4 hr chart. One hour MACD also just crossed bearish so we are certainly going down - how much is not clear. We could possibly have a strong move downwards overnight. I would not sell here, but I would recommend being safe and putting a stop where you are comfortably in profit.
Comment: Breakout this morning turned into a nasty bear wick down. I believe we've started our descent to 8k area or lower. Trade carefully friends.
Comment: IF this is a wave 1 of a 5 wave structure (big IF), the chances are strong that we are going lower than 8k. Target updated to 7200 area

Comment: Strted looking again at my BTC "doom" chart and it certainly seems this scenario could play out now that we can't break past 10k.


We will bounce here most likely but not for long. Ending target 7500 area for now. If you bought here I would consider taking profits on the way up at the 8600 area.

Good Luck!
Comment: Nice bounce overnight but I'm quite sure we are going lower. Taking profit at .5 and .618 retracement
Comment: Took profit after the bounce and now we are going lower. Very possible we visit the .786 retracement. We will get a bounce at about 7200 but it may not last, so be careful if buying and use stop losses to guarantee profits.

Comment: Last waves down shaping up nicely - right to the .786 fib. I'm buying in the 7100-7200 zone. Will update as we get closer. Good Luck!


Bought the panic yesterday and sold half on the spike up. I was happy to see some continuation this morning, but we still haven't held the 8600 level well. I'm cautious and have stops set in profit in case this scenario plays out. If we can hold 8600, I'll buy more on dips.
Comment: We didn't come down as expected and now I'm seeing hidden Bullish divergence as well as an ascending right triangle. Still the mid time frame stoch is maxed, but I think we'll have a pop up before they reset. Next Target 94-9500 area. Stop losses in place in case this is all a bull trap.


Stopped out in profit, but going to buy at the end of wave 5 (if it comes). 5 waves down MAY indicate a wave 1 towards the 5k area. I won't be sure till we see the reaction from wave 5.
Comment: Possible Fractal playing out here. Wave structure is very similar, as is the bullish sentiment which quickly dissipated. I would be very careful going long here.

Comment: We're getting close to the end of this 5 wave structure. Should be a good entry near to or under 6k. Always use stop losses in a bear market in case the bounce is minor.

Comment: Never Reached 6k however, looks like the same fractal again. I'm expecting continued selling. If we get above 7500 we may have a reversal in trend.

Comment: Another rising wedge and low volume. BTC takes a breather, but the bearish scenario continues. I'm not sure how the Bulls can be excited about this.

I'm assuming we'll see some decent selling in the next few days. If we break 6k, there will be a massive drop. Be careful.

very nice I also believe this scenario ;) Thumbs Up
Usually this Sell off is later in the week, so odd its starting now must be some news some where driving the sale. I agree with sunship, and have staggered my buys starting at 8700 86 85 etc. My low order is for 8300 see if that one hits. Watching the exchange see if the selling stops.
2 possibilities

If this wedge breaks down, we may have this

the_sunship the_sunship
@the_sunship, If we break up,
hi thanks! would you mind an update?
i would also like to know why you call that area a bearish divergence?
Many thanks for you TA, we will keep an eye on it!!!
buicuong buicuong
@buicuong, Many thanks for your TA, we will keep an eye on it!!!
@buicuong, as will I - very important weekend ahead of us!
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