wolfsong5663
Short

MY THIRD ATTEMPT (WRONG CHART AND FIB ON SECOND ATTEMPT)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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All time are UTC+11. Start of day 12:06am 11 March 2018. 22 hours 52 minutes to close of day 12 March 2018.

OVERALL TREND We are still in a massive downtrend from the high on 17 December 2017 - see the blue trend line .

DAILY TREND

Fib: the Fib starts at the recent high on 4 March and 5 March 2018 ($11,500) so that we are measuring the retracement from that high since 6 March 2018 to the low on 5 February 2018 ($6,946).

The price has cleary fallen below the 0.236 ($10,425.3) and 0.382 ($9,760) retracement. The current price ($8,612) is just below the very improtant 0.618 retracement ($8,685), which previously acted as support on 9 and 10 March 2018. If we close the day today below $8,685, then we are looking to $7,920.6 as support.

HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT WE CLOSE BELOW $8,685 TODAY?

MACD: On the daily chart , the MACD (12) in crossed over below the Signal line (26) on 7 March 2018, and if you followed MACD and shorted Bitcoin at the high of $10,899 on that day, you would have made a decent profit by now. Since then, the MACD continues to go further below the Signal line, consistent with the price action (so that there is no bullish divergence ) and there is no sign of a reversal.

CCI (20): On the daily chart , the CCI actually gave us a sell signal a day earlier than MACD - it gave us the signal on 6 March 2018 when it dropped just below 0. On that day, the high was $11,411 - imagine having shorted Bitcoin then. Since then, it has gone further below 0 and there is no sign of a reversal.

RSI The RSI is used as a measure as to whether Bitcoin is oversold or overbought only. Generally, below 30 indicates that it's oversold, above 70 indicates that it's overbought. You can see that on each occassion the RSI dipped below 30 (14 September 2017) and recently on 5 February 2018, the price bounced. At the moment, the RSI is at 36 and therefore there is no indication that there will be a bounce today.

Overall, we are likely to stay below $8,685 today, meaning that in the next couple of days, we will likely be trading between $7,920.6 and $8,685.60.

This is a daily chart analysis only, short term bounces above $8,685.60 may occur but $8,685.60 is now likely to act as resistance.

P.S. I am new to TA - DO NOT RELY ON MY ANALYSIS. Discussions are welcome - I'd like to continue to learn and improve.
There was temporary support at 7920 as predicted. We should be trading within 7920 and 8685 today
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