jayrsawal

BEARS on BREAK.. But where have the BULLS GONE? Quick DAILY.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good morning beautiful people! It has been pretty quiet since the weekend, hasn't it? On the bright side.. when bitcoin is doing nothing on the hourly charts, this gives us a chance to take a broader look at how BTC is doing. Let's get it.

We have been in a very tight trading zone in the past 24 hours, with no clear winner in sight. Most recently, we've had some ticks on the upside, but it was greeted with heavy resistance right at the 20 EMA line. That is a bad sign, and an indicator that the sentiment has not changed just yet. On a better note, the 7700 resistance line seems to be holding us up very well. As we continue to trade in this tight zone, expect volume to slow until a break out occurs. On the daily, we're seeing a bit of a bullish divergence happening (blue lines) when using the bodies of the candles. I don't think this is a strong hypothesis yet.. and so personally, I will continue to WAIT AND SEE.

That said.. here are some nuggets of thought.

BEYOND TA:
Now finally to the point I have been wanting to make. In the past few days, bitcoin/crypto sentiment has been rock bottom. Even the BULLS have gone quiet. Twitter has gone crazy, youtubers are going on vacation and have ceased talking about price movement. I think this might be good news. In the famous (and hopefully not last for us) words of Warren Buffet, be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. It was a time to be greedy before the previous bounce/bull trap, and the all time lows worth of sentiment, is a time to start thinking. Do we follow the herd? or start making bets against them? Unfortunately, not everyone can be correct.. and..

You're responsible for your own choices, this is my own personal analysis and there are always risks involved. I try to lay out the potential risk:reward in the near future for entertainment purposes only.

gl;hf
Mar 28
Comment: Quickly after posting my idea above, we've settled back down into the 7800-7900 range. This is normal, but I thought I should point out that the bullish divergence is contingent on the daily closing above that line.

As always,
gl;hf

-Jay
Mar 28
Comment: I've spent the whole day waiting for anything to happen... to no avail. We are still stuck in this hypothetical "accumulation" range. Some people would call this a bear flag though.. Something I'm noticing is that the sentiment is very slowly going back to neutral. I guess weak hands exist in both short sellers and pseudo-hodlers.

As I write this update, we are about to break the 7700 level.

I have some other things in store for everyone that I am pretty excited about. Hope all of you have had the chance to get some sun.. we have been sitting back and relaxing. More trading to come.. Look out BELOW.

gl;hf

-Jay
This is my non TA viewpoint, but Bulls (particularly big market players) might be waiting for either A) Good news, something relatively big that will push the market up, and string all the newbies along in FOMO. B) 6k, most investors do not believe 7.7k is the bottom. So possible it will keep banging up against 7.7k, quick move to 7.2k, 6.8k, or 6k, then major buying "when" we hit the bottom.

I agree with the sentiment we'll be trading in a 6k-12k range for the next 6 months.
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jayrsawal garyuws
@garyuws, I think at this point, the bottom is becoming quite self-fulfilling.. in that most have a similar bottom in mind (6k-7.2k). I think 7.7k is a key support level because, up from here brings us to a re-test to the bear trend, and downwards will be a quick descent to the bottom. The longer we stay at 7.7k, the more I believe that even if we go up from here, it will be quickly met with a rejection from the 9k level. Historically in bitcoin, bottoms are very distinct, in that it has a long candle going down, followed by a knee jerk reaction back up. So I agree with your viewpoint in that the whales are waiting for something..

At the moment, I frankly believe that the sideways movement is needed shake down of all the dumb money, so that we can continue moving upward from a new baseline.
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