ant187

BTC - Most likely scenarios

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good afternoon traders,

What a day!

I apologize ahead of time for the messy chart, but "bear" with me, I've had a long night. I'm going to post out all of the possible scenarios I see forming.

Bullish Scenarios:

1) We had a picture perfect ounce off the 200 SMA on daily. This could imply a possible reversal, back towards 9-10k area.

2) We start trading above 8,337 (go up toward 9k) which will create a possible head and shoulders pattern, before then dropping down hard into one of the bearish scenarios listed below.


Bearish Scenarios:

1) 7968 zone collapses, and we form a double bottom at 7564.

2) Head and shoulders formation completes (right shoulder) and we target 7160.

3) Collapse into falling wedge at 6968, hard bounce up.

3) Long bearish winter becomes a reality and we continue downwards into long term bear trend when it meets the 01 fib at 5589.

4) Mid term bear trend intersects with long term trend @ 6100


I'm currently on and off streaming @ http://www.twitch.tv/cryptocrew explaining these scenarios I see, feel free to join me.


As always if you find this information useful please support me by hitting the like and follow button.
Comment: Looks like we had breakdown, I'm now in scalp mode and will be in and out all day to try to bring my profits back into a more reasonable level, first target 20 EMA
Comment: We should expect consolidation, then a run up towards the 20 EMA, (taking profits there) depending on situation will re-buy or wait for next breakdown, next breakdown I anticipate (if we get our run up here) will be back to 7554, slight consolidation again, then down towards 6900-7100
Comment: For double bottom scenario (in play), we want a pull back towards 20 EMA, then based on the retrace from there, if we then pulled back a second time with a higher high above the first pullback it'd be a safe bet double bottom is confirmed and we go up
Comment: If this zone breaks, double bottom invalidated, if falling wedge fails, it will be utter chaos as it's pure fomo selling. Trade wisely, and do not trade if you cannot exit IMMEDIATELY
Comment: Chaos until 6986 - watch for bounce
Trade active
Comment: Double bottom is STILL valid scenario, can be a max difference of 3%
Comment:
Comment: 7318 invalidates double bottom
Comment: 120 BTC buy wall @ 7320 2 dollars ahead of the double bottom invalidation.

Whales are swimming these waters, watch for a breakdown of that wall or a hold of it
Comment: Down we go, next zone 6986
Comment:
Comment: Falling wedge area has been hit as well, but we're currently in an all out panic, so who knows at this point

Comment: Wait for sentiment to change.....and then its off to the moon, 8900-9500-10500 in play once people realize bottoms in, then expect another massive sell off, and a higher low, then range trading for extended period of time
Comment: Looks like it formed a double bottom right off my long term trend channel, look to the 4 hour that closes at 11am for confirmation of double bottom and higher low

Comment: Congress talking about $20 trillion dollar markets in 2 years, unbelievable.

B U L L I S H
Comment: Next target 8579
Comment: Anticipate a sell off towards 7500/7700 over the coming hours, if we break upwards target 9571
Comment: For clarification, target hit and I sold. Waiting for re-buy
Comment: Observe 30 minute / 1 hour / 2 hour stoch.

Currently oversold on 30 minute, if you see the 1 hour curve up, then fairly strong indicator correction over and next impulse to 9571 can begin.

If not, keep looking for the 20/50 EMA buy zones on the hourly. (They change obviously)
Comment: If the 2/3 hour stoch breaks down the 4 hour will too, in which case we'll see a very intense sell off, back towards the low 7s or possibly lower, time will tell!
Comment: Good entry for a scalp, one last push towards 4hr EMA, will either break through or break down completely, I've entered and will evaluate at the 4hr ema point
Comment: We're looking at 0 rejection of the 15 minute, if this fails then time to abandon ship.

Comment: FYI, I'm riding this up if we get that 15 minute crossing above 0 histogram (thats what this trade is pretty much based on) and if it goes below and is not rejected by the 0 histogram thats the queue to exit.
Comment: 15 minute rejected, it could still go up but I'm not risking it, I'm up a bunch from today so I exited at a loss.
Comment: targets being updated on stream/discord
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exited @$8,039
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Thanks for the updates man. Have entered in too and are standing by watching hoping all goes well. Please keep us updated on your thoughts! Always enjoy getting your emails pop up!
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@ant187 I think that 1h stoch has curved up... are you still waiting to re-buy?
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ant187 euronash
@euronash, Of course I am, until I see a re-crossing with conviction I wouldn't rebuy.
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@ant187, sorry, didn't quite get that...re-crossing on MACD?
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Nailed that prediction, Ant - for the sake of learning how did you derive that target (especially when others were predicting for the retracement to begin around 9600-9700)? Thanks for helping preserve my gains today, my friend!
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ant187 rmwerb
@rmwerb, Happy to help, it's back to responding to TA / indicators. It's been acting irrationally for the past 3 days. That target was the 4 hour EMA and we were oversold on hourly / 4 hour. We want to observe the 2/3hour as this should be a multi hour correction, if the 2/3 hour start dipping we know the 4 hour (currently overbought) will also dip, and a more intense sell off could begin.

For just the pure hourly oversold target, we want either the 50 or 20 EMA (so it has changed, to 7854 / 7584 I believe (going off memory), so a good entry if we're going to remain overbought on 4 hour will be 7854.

If the correction continues from a 4 hour standpoint, then we could see another breakdown entirely, if not, then I would anticipate 7300-7500 buy opportunities.


Just depends
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Good :) Did the same. Tks!
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Thanks for update Ant . So you see strong possibility for major retract? Back to 6k lev?
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ant187 carloscarlos2165
@carloscarlos2165, Anythings possible, but be careful with your orders, next sell off should be really intense, and depending where we hold will determine future growth, I'm hesitant to even set limit orders at this point. Just set alerts and evaluate when its at the different zones.
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