Bitcoin BTCUSD - Finally A Recovery. Now short it.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Keeping things simple here. Bitcoin just went through a much needed relief cycle and a potential short squeeze.

One thing I like to keep in perspective is we've dropped almost 50% in value in the last 2 months and just went through a ~30% rally. This hasn't made me bullish yet and I likely won't be for the next 3-6 months, but it's worth noting that a local top is forming. A retest is possible, but I would expect a pullback from here.

From the high and low pivots of $4277 to $3128, we have pulled back to the 61.8. Actually we overextended a little bit. If we happen to push back through and break $3900 again, we will be in for an interesting ride but please do not FOMO into anything.

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We're continuing a downward trend but there may be a recovery coming. If we're following an Elliot Wave on the way down, we may be completing a minor 5 wave impulse on a larger ABC correction. Still remains to be seen. If you are not short, you're likely about to get another opportunity. We've seen two triangles since reaching our high and they've been pretty textbook although the current triangle hasn't really completed yet. This could be the 4 of a 5 in an A correction.

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It's quite obvious that technical analysis can't predict the future but can explain the series of events. There was a lot telling me that we had already hit a local top then right after I posted my update yesterday, things started turning and it was obvious that we were in an ABC correction in wave 4 or wave 5 and it had already completed. As we hit a new local high, it brings me back to the theory that we've potentially got one more push up for potential. Yesterday I did say you would get another opportunity to short and while this seems like a good point, I would not short until the following happens:

1. Break down under3900 from here
2. Target of 4200 hit

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Last update for now. Assuming this was the top that we hit, here's some thoughts on where we may be going from here. It's possible we had a truncated 5th... it's also possible I counted this completely wrong. I felt like we had enough steam to get one more leg up. That might happen when we retest 3800. That seems to be a pretty important level to hold. We did break under 3900 but it's fighting here pretty hard right now. I'd wait for a convincing break here.

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I will continue tracking the bear case. People tell me that we're going to continue to see upside until futures expire and that is very possible. I've been hedging even though my majority stake is in shorts. Keeping an eye closely. There's still a strong possibility we're in an ABC with the exception that B went a bit deeper than I'd like. It did not extend beyond the last local high which is still a case for the bears to regain control.

Again, not financial advice. Do your own research. This is simply my thoughts on the bitcoin market and nobody can predict the future.

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Here's a bull case. Seeing that we've been forming a wedge and that is usually a case for continuation, I will be holding my short and hedging my long and increasing my position size if we happen to break out.

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Sorry, forgot to post the chart:

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Looks like the original short idea is playing out. We had a pretty intense candle earlier today and it's holding steady. Trade safe my friends. Updated chart that I had to throw together quickly as Santa is on his way to our house soon!

Merry Christmas. Happy Holidays. Best Wishes to you all!

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Happy New Year!

The holiday volume hasn't fared too well for the time being. The choppy nature of the charts mixed with the crazy candle (especially on Kraken) has been hard to read. There are a lot of sells coming in the market orders but I'm sitting in the trade still waiting for my target zone although I do have a long position open which I will be taking profits with fairly soon.

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Still targeting but have thcanged the counts a bit and cleaned up the mess on the chart a little more. It would appear that we're in a wedge of sorts and counting the way down.

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The chart is a complete wreck trying to get all the counts right but we have broken two major support levels. Inverse head and shoulders is dead. Long positions are dying. I had a hedged long position that stopped out with $100 slippage. Unbelieveable. Still targeting ~3400ish.

Not much of an update other than to say even though there was a push up, I am still right and the bull cases are diminishing quickly.