Decrypt0

BTC - Contrarian hits the target - When is the Bear striking?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Last chart, I stated that most got it wrong - Thats when I got it right, after being wrong myself previously.
Being a trader and a technical analyst is also about adapting your position - not trying to force your position based on what you believe, but rather on what you see.

So I stepped up my game, I took another look at the chart and things became clear - its pretty definite, we are very close to the end of the bear market.
But this is no time to FOMO and go all in, not quite yet at least.

Any one who watched my chart and bought at 5k and sold now would be up 20% today. Congratulations.
By the way !! We always buy at support - > not at resistance.

So let's get into it!
First we need to assess what BTC has completed thus far.
Right now BTC is performing remarkably well - it's still definitely a nice rally we have going.

Facts:
  • We're up from 3200, up to 6000 USD - Holy, bear'R'rekt !
  • We've broken significant Moving Averages
  • Volume is actually starting to look good
  • We are overBOUGHT damnit!! Also soon overbought on weekly timeframe - Stoch has already peaked :) Danger danger!

Conclusion!
I think we really can expect a dip sooner rather than later,
But the short interest are stacking up like crazy - and a bitcoin bull, yeah, let's just say that he can f- with shorts if he wants to.
And what does that lead to as a result? Higher BTC price! ...Until no one dares to short it and everyone is bullish again.

But let's be real - most probable is that *if* we continue higher, we will probably stop out around the 100-moving average on the weekly timeframe , around 6500.

We have 2 targets for the coming correction.
  • the .382 retracement which is in line with the 200-EMA. (Support low 4000 range)
  • the .618 retracement which has provent resilient and backed the move up to 6000. (Support: low 5000 range)

But out of those targets, I would say that the . 382 retracement is not unlikely at all and probably the most likely of the choices looking forward!
Adapting and re-think our position is the best strategy if the initial plan is not working out for us.

As long as the majority keeps on being bearish , i see us slowly inching our way up until the majority turns bullish , and that my friends, is a surprise where the journey ends.
Looking at the ichimoku cloud , we could certainly even go to 7k - nothing is out of the question, but one this is certain , I will look to add to my position once we start moving down.

We are still waiting for that big leg down!! But when is it coming?
A educated guess would be in tops 2 weeks

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I'm not a legend nor master of the charts,
I'm the lurker in the void and I only see the glimpse of the truth and share it to you guys.

Later :D

PS.
I have the trade of the life for you boys. I just hope It have not exploded up before I can post it.
DS .
Comment: Previous chart
Comment: Price almost touched the upper trendline and looks to be consolidating.
Majority of the market participants are once again on the short side.

Will BTC clear the way up or start to correct?
Inducators are clearly bearish at this point.

Waiting for this to unfold, might take a short on this.
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