bagofXMR

A good analisys on btcusd uncertain future

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A good analisys can't predict the future. A good analisys consider options and assigns probabilities.
Basically i consider a visit to sub 10k almost guaranteed. Supported both by simple technical analisys and fundamental analisys.
Once there there are multiple options. We could be in early 2013 or late 2013.

GREEN: A major bubble incoming, public sees sub 10k btc cheap and the dip is rapidly bought. We reach 100k in 18 months.
BLUE: Institutional rails provide the needed liquidity to absorb weak hands and we keep the same log all time trend up that will take us to 100k in about three years.
RED: Panic puke. Even grandma panics and bitcoin breaks all time trend to puke down to 1k. We reach 100k in less than five years.

FUNDAMENTALS
  • Slow and expensive transactions - Median transaction fee of 13 usd and average transaction fee of 26 usd. Months of a constant backlog of transactions clogging the network [SOURCE1, SOURCE2]
  • Tether-Bitfinex bad procedures - Tether officialy accepted not having working banking relations since April 17, and since then has issued 1450 million USDT. Meanwhile they still haven't published anything similar to a real audit despite promising yearly audits in their whitepaper [SOURCE 1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3]
  • Overleveraged market [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3]
  • Loosing leadership - Bitcoin already lost its position as the most transacted blockchain and the biggest usd volume in blockchain transactions. But it is still the biggest blockchain, something that could change in the future as the current trend (from 90% deominance to below 35%).
    [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3]
  • Bitcoin cash proved a bitcoin brand contender - Almost 6 months after the fork bitcoin cash didn't vanish at all. Almost every other dev team but BitcoinCore migrated to Bitcoin Cash , most key services either migrated or at least adopted Bitcoin Cash , trading and transacting volume is growing and community is strong. Something that didn't happen at all with any other scam fork, proving the real point and the real interest behind Bitcoin Cash . [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2] [SOURCE3] [SOURCE4]
  • Stream of new buyers potentially drying out - Google trends chart for bitcoin realated search terms seems to have peaked [SOURCE1] [SOURCE2]
  • Lack of volume on regulated derivatives - Despite all the hype around bitcoin futures and how Wall St . was desperate to get bitcoin exposure volume is low [SOURCE1]
Comment:
Bitcoin regulations - SEC, PBOC and now South Korea regulators are tightening all the bitcoin related activities. Including but not limited to mining, trading and profiting.
Comment: A closer look of the symmetrical triangle breaking down right now.
Comment: And the daily outlook of the same symmetrical triangle.
Comment: If you weren't short, your oportunity is incoming
Comment:
Comment: Thanks to the public chat kind traders i just saw i mistyped "Analysis". Sad. Specially when the word "good" is prior to it. Lol. Excuse my dyslexhia :)
Comment: I still stand for this. Anything above 12500 should be an easy short
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: Got shorts filled. Let's see what happens in the next hours.
Comment:
Comment: Text book head and shoulders targeting down to 5.8k, a level already considered key before analizyng this h&s
Comment: Lovely chart by my homie @TheTrex showing a potential fractal behaviour of btcusd
Comment: Keep an eye on this new triangle potentially breaking down soon
Comment: After a slight asjustment this is how the triangle looks like

It is symmetrical, it broke down at 11k and targets 6k.
Short the retest of breakdown and nearby :)
Comment:
Triangle retested. Let's see if we cancel the break down or resume the move down.
Comment: A brief comment on Coincheck hack, that involved $720 million worth of crypto-assets (basicaly XEM and XRP)
Amazing resilience of $XEM that is now trading at $0.87 just ~10% shy of the levels prior the news geting released.
To put things in perspective: ~5.2% of the circulating supply of NEM tokens has been allegedly substracted, while Mt.Gox hack only affected ~2.8% of circulating btc.
https://twitter.com/2017Lon/status/956851031249272832
Comment: Taking a look at this and covering most of short at these levels (11500), but keeping a close eye to see what happens.
Comment:
Comment: This was a crazy 50% ride.
Switched to long at the bottom.
https://twitter.com/criptomaniaweb/status/959408144765083650

This is my new "long" idea, targeting over 10k. Though as signaled in this chart by the "blue path" price could pump as high as 12.5k without breaking the bear case.

Great work bag. Simply outstanding.
Reply
bagofXMR Voluntarist007
@Voluntarist007, thanks mate
Reply
hey you know, I said much it could go down. Which will make it pretty bullish. but currently, I don't believe it will go down...
Don't be biassed mate if it breaks 10K and holds under it, yeah we will see much lower then 5K.

Reply
bagofXMR trueorfalse
@trueorfalse, Thanks for insight and chart mate ! :D
Reply
@bagofXMR, cheers :)
Reply
bagofXMR trueorfalse
@trueorfalse, I'm still biased downwards because of this too

The wedge and the symmetrical triangles keep sugesting down. The head and shoulders does it too.
I know there is that trendline and there is this narrative that what we are seeing is just "Wall st. manipulation" because fo futures setlement. And I also can see some bullish fundamentals such as RSK and LN in mainnet, but overall i think the sentiment is pretty depressed because people is realizing we grew too much in a very short time and since "wall street" came in with their regulated derivatives we are only seeing sell pressure.
Tether is injecting hundreds of millions per week, much more than the ~15-20 daily we need to buy up miners coins, and still price is refusing to go up.
I know not making an ath in 35 days is not such a big deal and it has happened during this bull run since 200 usd

Anyways, through all this year shorting btcusd pair I have an strict risk management procedures that make me feel confident I can deal with any losses resulting from a mistaken analisys
Reply
jimmy_ trueorfalse
@trueorfalse, What indicator is that on the right with the horizontal bars?
Reply
@jimmy_, hi jimmy its Volume Profile
Reply
jimmy_ trueorfalse
@trueorfalse, It seems like the key to financial success.. how do I get it?
Reply
@jimmy_, you already have it, just add volume profile.
Reply
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