Diamond top?
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May climb a little above 34k area before the real drop occurs.
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It seems the 31.6k area is the next stop. This is where it will get interesting. If this can't hold we can expect 28.8k to come rather quickly IMO
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31.6k area hit (point of interest). Let's see how BTC responds. Will selling momentum pickup or will the slow downward movement continue?
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Prediction...BTC climbs back up to 34k and then that should be the last run up before the fall. Let's see. BTC always has a way of surprising.
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32.8k seems to be pretty good resistance which makes sense because the downtrend is ready to make a decision...a clear direction should be determined in the next 2 days.
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I'm going to throw out another possibility...BTC never goes the way we want so here is what I am thinking. This would cause chaos in shorts and longs which BTC is known for.
Looks a lot like October 24th 2019 to me. OBV is ready to move up, etc. ...a quick run up to 52-55k area and then slowly down to 20k area and then consolidation again before who knows when it makes its move back up
Looks a lot like October 24th 2019 to me. OBV is ready to move up, etc. ...a quick run up to 52-55k area and then slowly down to 20k area and then consolidation again before who knows when it makes its move back up
Trade closed manually:
I am marking this trade as closed because I don't want to confuse. I am not short or long at this point essentially. I will likely start another post with this new idea. Bear with me as I'm new to posting.
Here is BTC on the 2 hour. Do you agree with the new direction? A few folks do because we know BTC never does what everyone expects it to do. If you are shorting it now, be careful.
In regards to the second diamond pattern I believe we are in now, BTC tried to pull folks out on the double bottom and it will do this sort of thing again for sure to pull folks out on the way up. Please don't hold me to the path in the diamond pattern. They can be unpredictable but one thing that is always a bullish sign to me is when it drags alongside the right side on the way up or tests it a few times.
Here is BTC on the daily. Take a look at the correlation between Oct 23rd and today. Its pretty similar to me. Oversold, etc. and ready to move up.
What's next? Volume! There should be plenty of it by at least July 21st IMO. BTC will break up when its good and ready so we wait. If volume doesn't come by then we re-evaluate our trade. Good luck to you all.
Here is BTC on the 2 hour. Do you agree with the new direction? A few folks do because we know BTC never does what everyone expects it to do. If you are shorting it now, be careful.
In regards to the second diamond pattern I believe we are in now, BTC tried to pull folks out on the double bottom and it will do this sort of thing again for sure to pull folks out on the way up. Please don't hold me to the path in the diamond pattern. They can be unpredictable but one thing that is always a bullish sign to me is when it drags alongside the right side on the way up or tests it a few times.
Here is BTC on the daily. Take a look at the correlation between Oct 23rd and today. Its pretty similar to me. Oversold, etc. and ready to move up.
What's next? Volume! There should be plenty of it by at least July 21st IMO. BTC will break up when its good and ready so we wait. If volume doesn't come by then we re-evaluate our trade. Good luck to you all.
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Lastly, we should always be prepared for the worst and in this case its a stop loss set to 31k IMO. This would take us out of the diamond pattern and towards the 28.4k area in a hurry and then at this point everyone would get what they predicted (and yes that did once include me) and it would likely fall down to 20k a little after. As you know, this is not the situation I am thinking will happen now, but it's always good to have a plan in case things don't go the way we think it will.
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Here is BTC on the 1 hour. It's decision time IMO
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If BTC can make it up to the 33k area by tomorrow morning we may have a validated diamond bottom pattern IMO. BTC is in no rush though. It does as it wants so we wait on the volume as noted in a prior post.
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Well diamond bottom pattern invalidated obviously. Feels like a calm before the storm to me. My plan is to pick a coin I think may be lucrative during this time and play the bounce at 28.4k. I think the bounce could be fairly strong to get out of the falling wedge pattern. I don't know at this point if it can get past 35-37k (in time) as there is strong resistance there, however there can be a lot of money to be made on the bounce if played right IMO. Good luck to you all.
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Here is another idea on the 4 hour...after further analysis this seems more likely to me given the correlation with past price action as outlined in the chart. Good luck to everyone.
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Moving down to the target...it appears it's trying to go up a little now just to gain more momentum to go down as its oversold on the 4 hr which is what I am honing in on in my chart. OBV hasn't quite reached bottom either to support this idea. According to the chart in less than 24 hours we will have arrived at the target. What will happen after that? I think a decent bounce and it will eventually make its way up to the 35-37k area again. Let's see
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Furthermore this idea still supports short vs long confusion IMO. Shorts think its going to the 19-20k area and longs aren't sure what BTC is doing (well there are the Wyckoff folks out there which claim phase C has absolutely already happened). I am of the opinion its a waiting game and BTC hasn't revealed its cards yet. BTC may pull back hard after 35-37k or make its way up to 55-58k (I do not know) before pulling back, but one thing is for sure and that is we are still missing volume and until that comes we need to be realistic and say BTC is slowly sinking for now.
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quick update...it was a bit foolish of me to say BTC will drop in the next 24 hours. Though it does appear that way on the chart I am often reminded BTC will do things when it wants. Good luck to you all
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Now it can drop...let's see
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big dump coming in the next couple of days IMO...let's see
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Here is an update after finally getting some time to analzye more. We knew BTC had to go up because it was oversold on the 4 hour, so it has. I expect it to hang out at this level until a couple hours before market close which will likely drive it up to the 32.5k area and give everyone hope. By the way how are shorts doing? Confused? still shorting? Yeah, well longs aren't doing that well either so I'de say the powers that be are doing a pretty good job keeping everyone off balance. If you played the bounce, well done but IMO but the real drop is a 1-3 days away and it will be sharp I believe. I am watching OBV (4 hour) the most as it needs to come down quite a bit. I drew a inverse head and shoulders pattern where BTC fails at the bottom of the shoulder down to 26k area just to see how that may play out. I suspect a pretty big bounce after this. Given that its near the end of the month this drop may drag out more than anyone of us would like for it to. If for some reason BTC crosses up with volume above 33k I would be very surprised but it would invalidate this idea.
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Well so much for waiting for BTC to run up later in the day...I think that's the top and its down from here for the next few days...we shall see though
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Here is what I am thinking...trying to give BTC a bullish pattern to bump up with that everyone feels confident about and can easily spot after the the bottom of the head has been determined and it fires up...should create volume in the short term...target is above 38k. Let's see if BTC takes off from where it currently is with volume or follows the pattern down
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Deep down I want to be a crazy Wyckoff'er - lol (just kidding). I laugh because I take patterns one at a time. Those that already sketched this out a while back were way too early in the game. I now think this is plausible. Have I lost my marbles or does this looks very similar to Wyckoff's Accumulation schematic?
BTC on the 4 hour once again
BTC on the 4 hour once again
Trade closed manually:
I am closing this particular idea because it has morphed into my new idea of a Wyckoff Accumulation schematic nearing the "Spring". Please feel free to follow my idea if you agree as I will be giving updates as needed in that post. This is a bear trap... which bring me to my very first post! It was just long and drawn out -typical BTC. The drop about to occur IMO will likely give the shorts confidence that a resumption of a downtrend is in play. Make no mistake though there will be a shakeout and it will be hard for longs to hold. Smart money will not make it easy which negates my earlier post this morning about making it easy to spot an inverse head and shoulders. Probably at the bottom, people will be thinking oh man it could really drop. In a matter of days though will come the volume as I'm predicting which would validate this idea. Let's see. This would open up a new trend for BTC. FlavuisTodorius67 (fantastic trader) is spot on when he says things are not the way they used to be. Trends are changing due to institutional money and we must adapt. Good luck
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I meant to say "Looks like a bull trap... my very first post"...anywho for what its worth just wanted to make that correction. I am predicting now however that it will turn into a bear trap but bulls alike will struggle to confidently go long when BTC is near 26k . Probably won't make such statements in the future. sigh - I'm learning